Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS Jackson, MS

683 
WWUS54 KJAN 282259
SVSJAN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
559 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

MSC069-075-101-282309-
/O.EXP.KJAN.SV.W.0259.000000T0000Z-140628T2300Z/
NEWTON MS-LAUDERDALE MS-KEMPER MS-
559 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN KEMPER...
NORTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE AND NORTHEASTERN NEWTON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 600 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 3235 8880 3241 8900 3258 8895 3258 8891
      3269 8891 3263 8864
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 200DEG 19KT 3266 8879

$$

MRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL MS
THIS AFTERNOON IS MOSTLY DISORGANIZED AND NON-SEVERE THUS FAR...BUT
THERE ARE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO HELP FOCUS AND INTENSIFY
STORMS. TROUGHING OVER THE ARKLATEX IS ENHANCING THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW (0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 30KTS)...AND THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE
OUTFLOW IS INCREASING STORM MOTION AND COVERAGE. FAIRLY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (VERTICAL TOTALS ~28) ABOVE A TYPICAL HOT AND
HUMID SUMMERTIME BOUNDARY LAYER IS YIELDING MIXED LAYER CAPE
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
ARKLAMISS.

THE COMBINATION OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND UNUSUAL LATE JUNE
WIND SHEAR IS SUPPORTING AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
AREA. THE STORMS THAT WERE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER SOUTHWEST LA
HAVE DONE SO...BUT THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LINE OF STORMS HAS BEEN MORE
NORTHERLY THAN EXPECTED...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE COMPLEX WILL STAY
MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER...AFFECTING NE LA INTO SE AR. WITH ALL OF
THIS IN MIND AND GIVEN THE CURRENT SCENARIO AND TRENDS... WE HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS GOING IN THE HAZARD PRODUCTS/
GRAPHICS.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH MAINLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS LESS LIKELY THAT STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
OZARK REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
REACH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND HAVE
DELAYED AND LOWERED POPS SOME. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FOR
SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MORE STORMS...
PARTICULARLY BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WHILE CAPE IS FORECAST TO
EXCEED 3000 J/KG...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SO THE RISK FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS LESS. A FEW SEVERE MICROBURSTS ARE STILL A
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY. HEAT STRESS SHOULD BE ON
THE INCREASE SUNDAY GIVEN GREATER RIDGE INFLUENCE --- AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 100-104 RANGE...MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE ARKLAMISS. AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY EVENING...
DISSIPATING STORMS AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. /EC/

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK...

LONG-AWAITED DEEP HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION MONDAY
FINALLY LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE START
OF NEXT WORK WEEK. SUPPRESSION FROM ANTICYCLONE ALOFT PROBABLY WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO FROM POPPING UP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT CHANCES OF GETTING WET STILL DEEMED LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OWING LARGELY TO A MUCH
GREATER AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT UP WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 93 TO 96 DEGREE RANGE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL HELP KEEP MOISTURE FROM MIXING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND WILL ALLOW PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES TO PEAK AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN MANY AREAS ON BOTH DAYS. CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS HOT STRETCH TO FALL COMFORTABLY SHORT OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF HWO FOR NOW.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME BACK FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COMING OUT OF TX FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCOMING AND NON-TRIVIAL COOL FRONT. THERE IS DEFINITELY SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW QUICKLY THIS RIDGE WILL RELENT TO FRONTAL
INCURSION INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
HAVE SPED UP WITH THIS EVOLUTION ALTHOUGH I MAINLY SIDED WITH LEAST
AGGRESSIVE EURO IN THIS REGARD. IF THE EURO IS CORRECT AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE MOSTLY LIMITED TO NORTHERN ZONES LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THEN HUMP DAY COULD PROVE TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE HOT STRETCH AND IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO I BUMPED UP MEX HIGHS. OF COURSE IN THE HOT ENVIRONMENT IN
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGH AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR POTENT CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WE
GO FORWARD IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE INCOMING SAGGING
FRONTAL ZONE TO PROBABLY STALL IN THE MIDST OF OUR REGION AFTER
INFILTRATING IN BACKDOOR FASHION. RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE
WEAKENED...BUT MODELS SUGGESTS NOT ENOUGH TO RELENT TO A PERTURBED
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN. THUS...EXPECT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH OTHERWISE SULTRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY SLIGHTLY
LESSER HEAT THAN THE MID-WEEK PEAK. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON STORMS ARE AGAIN
SCATTERED ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGING BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
TO AFFECTED TAF SITES WITH BRIEF LOWERED CEILINGS AND VIS ALONG WITH
WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS GUSTING TO 30KTS. ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL 5-10KTS OUTSIDE OF STORMS. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  92  74  94 /  34  30   4   7
MERIDIAN      72  92  72  95 /  35  34   4   9
VICKSBURG     74  91  73  94 /  30  24   3   7
HATTIESBURG   73  92  74  95 /  32  20   4  14
NATCHEZ       74  90  73  93 /  40  17   4  12
GREENVILLE    74  92  74  93 /  43  33   5   7
GREENWOOD     73  91  73  95 /  47  44   6   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

EC/28/BB/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
235 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025-027-034>036-
040>043-047-048-053-054-059>063-072-291945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-CARROLL-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-WARREN-HINDS-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-MARION-
235 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DECENT WIND SHEAR COULD RESULT IN
SEVERE STORMS LINGERING FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...BUT HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ026-028>033-037>039-044>046-049>052-055>058-064>066-073-074-
291945-
GRENADA-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-LAMAR-FORREST-
235 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

ARZ074-282230-
ASHLEY AR-
459 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
459 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF CROSSETT AT 500 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN ASHLEY COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3329 9203 3329 9202 3331 9201 3331 9198
      3335 9200 3337 9197 3339 9199 3341 9199
      3338 9152 3300 9182 3302 9209 3303 9212
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 201DEG 26KT 3308 9198

MRM

MSZ044-045-050-051-282235-
SCOTT MS-NEWTON MS-NESHOBA MS-LEAKE MS-
503 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
503 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF CONEHATTA AT 503 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LEAKE...SOUTHWESTERN NESHOBA...NORTHWESTERN
NEWTON AND NORTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3265 8944 3255 8909 3232 8929 3238 8949
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 201DEG 26KT 3244 8935

MRM

MSZ019-025-282255-
SUNFLOWER MS-LEFLORE MS-
508 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
508 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER RULEVILLE AT 508 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN LEFLORE AND NORTHEASTERN SUNFLOWER COUNTIES
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3398 9044 3382 9044 3382 9031 3381 9031
      3360 9046 3368 9065 3399 9050 3399 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 206DEG 20KT 3373 9051

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
514 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SW QUITMAN            31.99N 88.78W
06/28/2014                   CLARKE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN IN THE ST. MARYS COMMUNITY AND A
            HOUSE DAMAGED IN HARMONY.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
517 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND GST     ENTERPRISE              32.17N 88.81W
06/28/2014  E45 MPH          CLARKE             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN IN ENTERPRISE.

&&

DCOX

MSZ018-282305-
BOLIVAR MS-
518 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
518 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES WEST OF SHELBY
TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUND BAYOU AT 518 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN BOLIVAR COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3412 9083 3412 9066 3383 9066 3373 9086
      3393 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 206DEG 16KT 3393 9085 3380 9086