Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
256 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN PLENTIFUL TONIGHT WITH PWATS AROUND 2.0-2.1
INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING FROM ACROSS THE
AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS ALSO LINES UP WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS...SO WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT OR SO...BUT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LITTLE WILL CHANGE ON FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPULSES CONTINUING TO DRIVE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT ANY NOCTURNAL
ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING TO DRIVE WHAT HAPPENS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. H500 HEIGHTS DUE BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT EXPECT A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND ON SATURDAY AS H500 HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
EXPECT MOSTLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MUCH
LESS COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. DID NOT MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ATTACH
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM BELOW./15/

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...RIDGING ALOFT
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY LESS RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WHAT RAIN
CHANCES DO EXIST LOOK TO BE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84.

LESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL IN
TURN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUING HUMID CONDITIONS.  00Z GFS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S NEXT WEDNESDAY...BUT FELT THESE
WERE TOO HIGH AS GROUND CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL BE RATHER MOIST FROM
RECENT RAINS.  THEREFORE...I CUT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID
90S.  LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD AS THEY ONLY FALL INTO THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 70S. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING ARE MOVING NEAR KGTR WHILE
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. MORE
SHOWERS/TSRA ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS PSBL AFTER 20-21Z AT KHBG AND
AFTER 23Z AT OTHER TAF SITES DUE TO TSRA DIRECT IMPACT. TSRA TO
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z BUT VCSH TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM SW AROUND 5-10 KT. EXPECT MIX OF MVFR CONDITIONS/LOWER
STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 27/06Z AT MOST TAF SITES. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       83  68  86  70 /  95  42  63  15
MERIDIAN      84  67  87  68 /  76  40  56  18
VICKSBURG     84  69  87  70 /  96  48  66  13
HATTIESBURG   84  68  88  70 /  73  31  55  16
NATCHEZ       84  68  86  70 /  95  46  62  11
GREENVILLE    85  70  87  71 /  96  61  70  23
GREENWOOD     83  68  85  70 /  95  57  67  28

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

15/DC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
236 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
271945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
236 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

23

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ060-061-262255-
ADAMS MS-FRANKLIN MS-
511 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
511 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM SIBLEY TO 2 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GARDEN CITY AT 511 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3135 9146 3153 9127 3153 9071 3135 9090
      3135 9121 3137 9122 3136 9125 3136 9127
      3135 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 237DEG 14KT 3139 9139 3138 9109

LAZ016-023>025-262315-
TENSAS LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA LA-MADISON LA-
516 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
516 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
WAS LOCATED FROM FORT NECESSITY TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOMERSET AT
515 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. IT MAY
ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITIES. USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING THROUGH
DOWNPOURS.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN MADISON...NORTHEASTERN CATAHOULA...SOUTHERN
FRANKLIN AND NORTHERN TENSAS PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3215 9183 3228 9098 3219 9100 3222 9100
      3224 9104 3222 9106 3221 9114 3219 9117
      3213 9117 3212 9106 3218 9106 3216 9101
      3210 9103 3209 9104 3209 9106 3207 9112
      3208 9114 3206 9116 3184 9186
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 218DEG 8KT 3201 9186 3213 9111

MSZ072-073-262305-
MARION MS-LAMAR MS-
522 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
522 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BAXTERVILLE TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF KOKOMO AT 522 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN LAMAR AND SOUTHERN MARION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3103 8984 3107 8985 3107 8992 3112 8995
      3113 9000 3118 9003 3129 8996 3126 8943
      3104 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 206DEG 14KT 3113 8962 3112 8996

MRM

MSZ072-073-262335-
MARION MS-LAMAR MS-
550 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
550 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
IMPROVE TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF KOKOMO AT 550 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN LAMAR AND MARION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3112 8995 3113 9000 3113 9001 3117 9002
      3118 9004 3123 9004 3135 8996 3144 8963
      3143 8946 3118 8952 3110 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 207DEG 20KT 3127 8957 3116 9001

MRM

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