Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
323 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OVERVIEW...STRONG TO SEVERE SQUALL LINE WITH FREQUENT LIGHTING AND
HEAVY RAIN MOVING INTO WESTERN ARKLAMISS NOW AND WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD TOWARDS I-55 CORRIDOR BY 5-6PM AND TO EAST MS BY 8-10PM. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM WITH A POSSIBLE
EXTENSION INTO EAST MS THIS EVENING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS ALSO IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR NORTH MS AS THIS LINE IS THE FIRST ROUND
OF SEVERAL THAT COULD IMPACT THE REGION WITH POSSIBLE EXPANSION INTO
THE DELTA.

A POTENT LEAD EJECTING S/WV TROUGH FROM A A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF MID
LEVEL LOW OVER OVER OK IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE CONGRUENT
WITH 40-50 H5 CYCLONIC FLOW OVERTOP A MOIST AND MODERATELY SHEARED
/35 KT 0-6 KM/ UNSTABLE AIRMASS /~2000 J/KG MLCAPE/. EFFECTIVE SRH
VALUES NEAR 200 M2/S2 WILL OVERSPREAD THE DELTA REGION NEXT 3 HOURS
AND ANY EASTWARD BOWING STRUCTURE COULD COMBINE WITH 30-35 KT 0-3 KM
SHEAR FOR MESOVORTICY GENERATION. WHILE A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...THE LIKELIHOOD IS LOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A NATCHEZ TO MAGEE TO MERIDIAN LINE WHERE BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBO WILL EXIST WITH SOUTHERN FLANK MORE SW TILTED AND OUTFLOW
DOMINANT.

THIS LINE WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE EVENING
BUT A STRONGER JET MAX AND ADDITIONAL UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ARKLATEX AND AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER RAIN/
TSTORM BAND OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONT ATTENDANT TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS MID MS
VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING OF STORMS COULD HEIGHTEN THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE DELTA REGION AND AN EXPANSION OF THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THIS BAND SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DELTA AREA
FROM STRONG/SEVERE TUESDAY BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO THE S/E
COULD AGAIN SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. INSTABILITY
/500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TOMORROW AFTN SOUTH AND
EAST OF ONGOING ACTIVITY AS MAIN PARENT TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
QG LIFT PIVOTS OVER THE REGION. 0-3 KM SRH WILL RANGE 100-200 M2/S2
WHICH IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. THIS 2ND ROUND
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY MID EVENING
TUESDAY BUT A THIRD POSSIBLE THINNER LINE OF STRONGLY FORCED
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE BACK ACROSS THE DELTA DURING THE
LATE AFTN PER HI RES NAM AND SSEO SUPPORT. THIS COULD BE POSSIBLE
BUT DEPENDENT ON ATM RECOVERY POST THE 2ND ROUND.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL FINALLY MAKE IT THROUGH MOST THE REGION BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWERING RAIN CHANCES. SOME AFTN SHOWERS/
TSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE AS LINGERING PWATS NEAR 1.5" REMAIN IN
EAST MS WITH WEAK SW/V RIDGING BUILDING IN EARLY THURSDAY.
/ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO GLH/GWO AND
EVENTUALLY JAN/HKS/GTR EARLY THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING OUT
OF THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS IN AND AROUND ANY
CONVECTION. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  82  67  85 /  96  71  45  30
MERIDIAN      72  86  67  85 /  93  69  61  38
VICKSBURG     71  82  67  86 /  97  62  31  23
HATTIESBURG   73  87  69  87 /  82  67  53  49
NATCHEZ       72  82  67  85 /  95  64  25  18
GREENVILLE    70  82  66  84 / 100  54  24  20
GREENWOOD     70  82  66  84 / 100  58  38  24

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>033.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-MSZ018-019-034-102130-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-
428 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

FLOODING
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WEAK FRONT
NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...DAY TIME HEATING...AND SUBTLE
EAST NORTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALL HELP TO
CONTINUE THE INITIATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.

IN ADDITION...SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ025>033-035>039-042>046-048>051-102130-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
428 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MAINLY TONIGHT

FLOODING
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIND GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. A
WEAK FRONT NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...DAY TIME
HEATING...AND SUBTLE EAST NORTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL ALL HELP TO CONTINUE THE INITIATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

LAZ009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040-047-053-054-059-102130-
EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-
CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-
428 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

FLOODING
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TUESDAY

SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 60 TO 70 MPH AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD...BUT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...DAY TIME HEATING...AND SUBTLE EAST
NORTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALL HELP TO CONTINUE
THE INITIATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MSZ041-102130-
SHARKEY-
428 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

FLOODING
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD...BUT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...DAY TIME HEATING...AND SUBTLE EAST
NORTHEAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ALL HELP TO CONTINUE
THE INITIATION OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MSZ052-055>058-060>066-072>074-102130-
LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
428 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TUESDAY

FLOODING
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA ON TUESDAY...AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

ALLEN

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
HIGH...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER RFC HOME PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC/
NWS SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK/INDEX.HTML
WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESS_RAIN.SHTML
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFERD.HTML
WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 7 QPF...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
WPC QPF DISCUSSION...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFHSD.HTML
NWS JAN OBSERVED PRECIPITATION IMAGES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=PRECIPMAPS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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