Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

.UPDATE...NEAR TERM GRIDS REFINED FURTHER FOR ONGOING CONVECTION IN
WEST WHILE DROPPING POPS/WEATHER IN NE NEXT 1-3 HRS. REFRESHED
PRODUCTS FOR NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH
ARKLAMISS THROUGH 4AM AND CANCELED OUT THOSE THAT EXPIRED AT 9PM.
SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DISCUSSION...

ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COUPLED WITH A H5 PVA SPOKE
ATTENDANT TO S/WV IMPULSE AND/OR MCV MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN AR THIS
EVENING IS COMBINING WITH ~2000 J/KG MLCAPE WHICH IS SUPPORTING
ROBUST CONVECTION NEAR THE MS RIVER AS OF 9PM. THESE INGREDIENTS
WILL AID STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THEY PUSH EAST ACROSS WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MS. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF 60
MPH..HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WHILE
LOW-LVL SRH WILL BE INCREASING COINCIDENT WITH MCV IN DELTA NEXT 2-5
HOURS...BEST EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2 SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
REGION...NEGATING A TORNADO RISK. INSTABILITY AND THUS ROBUSTNESS OF
STORMS SHOULD WANE TOWARDS 4AM AS STORMS PUSH EAST TOWARDS HIGHWAY
45 CORRIDOR.

GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED IN THE NEAR TERM REFINING TSTORM WORDING
AREA AND TIMING AS COMPLEX PROGRESSES EAST ALONG WITH UPDATED
PRODUCTS/GRAPHICS ALREADY OUT. /ALLEN/

&&

.AVIATION...TIMING THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. AS FOR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW LOCATIONS AFTER 10-11Z.
THE ONLY OTHER RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR WHEN SITES ARE IMPACTED BY
STORMS. ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY BUT
TIMING THAT AT THIS TIME WILL BE VERY TOUGH. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ACTIVE PERIOD ONGOING AND EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF
STORM COMPLEXES EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION BELOW WILL ATTEMPT TO FINE TUNE TIMING AND HAZARDS.

SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL RIDGING EROSION HAS OCCURRED DUE TO NUMEROUS
TRAVERSING S/WV IMPULSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING FOR A
MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE MCS PARADE FOR THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TSTORMS FIRED IN NE ZONES OFF A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BUT HAVE
STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY POSSIBLY OWING TO WEAKER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND RESIDUAL S/WV RIDGING AFFECTS. FEEL AREAS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY IN EAST MS WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE PER LATEST HRRR.
ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES WESTWARD TOWARDS AR/LA WHERE A LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS S NEARING THE MS RIVER. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS LINE WHEN SLIGHTLY GREATER H5 FLOW
OF 40 KT AND BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE ALONG A PVA RIBBON SHOULD
SUPPORT THE ADDITIONAL TSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE AFTN THROUGH EVENING
IN AR AND OVERSPREAD INTO MID AND NORTH MS. CONVERGENT/DIVERGENT
COUPLETS IN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR /150-200 MS/S2
0-1 KM SRH/ AND MLCAPE >1000 J/KG SUGGESTS A STRONGER MASS SIGNAL
THEN DAYS PAST HAVE THUS INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO SIZE OF GOLFBALLS COULD
OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. HAVE PLACED ELEVATED WORDING IN
HWO/GRAPHICS FOR TONIGHT IN THE DELTA REGION.

FOR MONDAY...EXPECTING A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AS TONIGHT'S TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE NE. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL
REBUILD ONCE AGAIN FOR ISO/SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION EARLY AFTN. HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING
ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH WILL EJECT OFF A LARGER PARENT TROUGH AND AID IN
INCREASED LOW-LVL SHEAR WITH MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG AND 27-28 C
VERTICAL TOTALS COINCIDENT WITH ANOTHER STRONG MASS SIGNAL AND THUS
LIKELY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED MCS FOR THE MS DELTA
REGION AND ACROSS THE 82 CORRIDOR. HAVE PLACED LIMITED RISK IN
HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH
THIS EPISODE AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN NW DELTA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT STARTING THIS TIME PERIOD.

TUESDAY'S WEATHER IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND
TIMING FROM MONDAY NIGHT'S SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM STALLS/LINGERS IN
WEST...SOME STRONG/SEVERE COULD OCCUR IN EAST AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH TUES AFTN WITH ADVANCEMENT OF AN ACTUAL FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE PLACED A LIMITED RISK IN
WEST AND PORTIONS OF EAST BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE REFINED NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  89  72  85 /  43  34  46  70
MERIDIAN      69  90  71  86 /  39  22  36  72
VICKSBURG     71  88  71  85 /  52  41  57  68
HATTIESBURG   72  92  72  88 /  14  19  25  71
NATCHEZ       71  88  73  84 /  32  37  47  69
GREENVILLE    70  85  70  83 / 100  57  79  72
GREENWOOD     70  87  71  84 / 100  51  74  71

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-092045-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...MAINLY TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. A WEAK FRONT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL HELP FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... THE ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

LAZ024>026-MSZ026-028>033-036>039-042>053-060-092045-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-GRENADA-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-ADAMS-
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN
HAZARDS BEING 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

LAZ015-016-023-092045-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH THE MAIN
HAZARDS BEING 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MSZ054>059-061>066-072>074-092045-
COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

MSZ027-092045-
CARROLL-
336 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. A WEAK FRONT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
AS A WARM FRONT AND WILL HELP FOCUS MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH AND QUARTER
SIZE HAIL FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

28

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
725 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             ELLIOTT                 33.68N 89.75W
06/08/2014  E1.00 INCH       GRENADA            MS   PUBLIC

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
726 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE ELLIOTT           33.66N 89.73W
06/08/2014                   MONTGOMERY         MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWNED ACROSS BOTH LANES OF US HIGHWAY 51 NORTH OF
            DUCK HILL

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
737 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             2 NW DUCK HILL          33.65N 89.74W
06/08/2014  E1.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         MS   PUBLIC

            OVAL SHAPED HAIL ON BRANSCOME RD

&&

CME

MSZ029-090115-
WEBSTER MS-
743 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
743 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF EMBRY AT 743 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3372 8927 3361 8926 3363 8949 3373 8949
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 269DEG 19KT 3366 8944

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
812 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     STARKVILLE              33.46N 88.82W
06/08/2014  E50.00 MPH       OKTIBBEHA          MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SMALL TREE BLOWN DOWN NEAR MSU CAMPUS

&&

DL

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