Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE EVENT BEGINNING TO UNFOLD AS SQUALL LINE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER AR/LA AND IS ENTERING NW PORTIONS OF CWA.

DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED GRADIENT WINDS TO BE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE AS GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 30 KNOTS IN THE DELTA. WHILE THE
MIXING HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 50S...LOW LEVEL
INVERTED V FEATURE SHOWING UP WELL IN BUFR SOUNDINGS OVER THOSE
AREAS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT. WITH
ALL INDICATORS POINTING TO A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT...HAVE
ADDED SUCH WORDING TO GRIDS TONIGHT.

DESPITE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR IN PLACE...INITIAL TORNADO THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED LCL/S TO REACH AS HIGH AS AROUND
3KFT. LCL HEIGHTS WILL LOWER...HOWEVER...AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO RISK DOES EXIST
WITH THE MAIN SQUALL LINE...AM MOST CONCERNED WITH THE TORNADO RISK
IN ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT GET GOING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. HRRR
AND LOCAL WRF ARE SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY DURING THE EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH MS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO AND REINVIGORATING
THE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO SWEEP RAPIDLY THROUGH TONIGHT BEING
COMPLETELY EAST OF THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS
DECREASING BEHIND. COOLER WEATHER WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY PAY A
VISIT TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 30S AT NIGHT AND
60S DURING THE DAY. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RAPIDLY SHIFT WEST AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SETUP BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE EVEN SHOWING A
POSSIBILITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT./26/

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDING ACROSS
THE PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THIS FRONT
PASSES/NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHERE THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO PULL
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD AND BREAK OUT PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN FAIL TO SHOW THIS RETURNING
MOISTURE KEEPING THINGS FAIRLY DRY (LOW END POPS). INHERITED LOW POPS
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES. IF
THE 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW FLURRIES LATE TUE AS THIS NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST YET THOUGH. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
HEADED OUR WAY LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE GIVEN THE
PATTERN. IT DEFINITELY APPEARS OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THESE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL NOT BE RETURNING ANY TIME SOON. DID NOT
SWAY TOO FAR FROM MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF THE SETUP
OFFERED BY THE ECMWF TAKES SHAPE FOR THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME TEMPS
OFFERED BY THE MEX WILL BE TOO COOL GIVEN RETURNING MOISTURE/WARMTH./BK/

&&

.AVIATION...
LATE THIS MORNING WE HAD A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS.
MAIN ISSUES TODAY WILL BE WITH STRONG SUSTAINED WIND AND HIGH GUSTS.
THE NW AREAS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED
20-30 KTS AND GUSTS 35-43 KTS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM
18-25 KTS AND GUSTS 30-35KTS. MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR GUSTY TSRA TO BRING INTERMITTENT IFR
CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR NW BY 21-23Z AND PROGRESS
E/SE THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE REGION AFTER 07Z. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       41  63  35  68 / 100   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      41  64  31  67 / 100   0   0   3
VICKSBURG     40  64  34  70 /  99   0   0   3
HATTIESBURG   46  67  35  70 / 100   0   0   1
NATCHEZ       42  61  37  69 /  99   0   0   3
GREENVILLE    37  63  38  67 /  92   0   0   2
GREENWOOD     35  64  35  69 /  99   0   0   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
358 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
212200-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
358 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

TORNADOES
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DAMAGING 60 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL
BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A LIMITED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST
WITH THIS LINE AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE.

WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
HIGH...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
EXTREME...SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER OR WIND GUSTS 65 MPH
 OR GREATER.
HIGH...SUSTAINED WINDS 40-49 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 58-64 MPH.
ELEVATED...SUSTAINED WINDS 30-39 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 45-57 MPH.
LIMITED...SUSTAINED WINDS 20-29 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 30 TO 44 MPH.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ073-202255-
LAMAR MS-
427 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
427 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS
WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUMRALL AT 426 PM CST...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3123 8966 3140 8965 3143 8961 3143 8946
      3135 8945 3134 8937 3118 8961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 229DEG 29KT 3131 8960

BYB

MSZ056-057-065-066-202320-
SMITH MS-JONES MS-JASPER MS-COVINGTON MS-
437 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
437 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM JUST SOUTH OF TAYLORSVILLE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO
50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAYLORSVILLE AT 437 PM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON...JASPER...NORTHWESTERN JONES AND
SOUTHEASTERN SMITH COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3163 8948 3175 8964 3223 8922 3222 8910
      3212 8895
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 219DEG 36KT 3176 8949

BYB

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-202315-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-MOREHOUSE LA-EAST CARROLL LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
445 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
445 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM PARKDALE TO 6 MILES
SOUTH OF JONES AT 446 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN CHICOT AND SOUTHEASTERN ASHLEY COUNTIES...AND
NORTHERN WEST CARROLL...NORTHERN EAST CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN
MOREHOUSE PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3320 9158 3320 9108 3313 9109 3313 9115
      3315 9117 3313 9120 3311 9120 3306 9112
      3294 9121 3290 9118 3290 9115 3293 9113
      3298 9114 3299 9111 3297 9108 3296 9108
      3280 9117 3280 9174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 270DEG 36KT 3312 9150 3288 9159

MRM

MSZ018-202335-
BOLIVAR MS-
450 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
450 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROSEDALE AT
450 PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL BOLIVAR COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3377 9072 3363 9115 3367 9123 3371 9118
      3367 9111 3368 9103 3371 9107 3370 9112
      3373 9115 3377 9115 3378 9099 3384 9108
      3393 9102 3396 9109 3400 9103 3396 9098
      3403 9099 3403 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 231DEG 38KT 3371 9127

MRM

ARZ075-LAZ008-009-MSZ034-035-040-041-202340-
CHICOT AR-WASHINGTON MS-SHARKEY MS-ISSAQUENA MS-HUMPHREYS MS-
EAST CARROLL LA-WEST CARROLL LA-
511 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
511 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 6 MILES WEST OF WAYSIDE
TO 6 MILES WEST OF GASSOWAY AT 512 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN HUMPHREYS...NORTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA...
NORTH CENTRAL SHARKEY...SOUTHERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN CHICOT
COUNTIES...AND NORTHEASTERN WEST CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN EAST
CARROLL PARISHES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3335 9114 3332 9076 3327 9076 3327 9070
      3278 9101 3293 9141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 284DEG 36KT 3326 9108 3297 9126

MRM

MSZ051-210005-
NEWTON MS-
527 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
527 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING NORTH TOWARD INTERSTATE TWENTY IN
NEWTON COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF ROBERTS AT 526
PM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN NEWTON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3222 8899 3223 8925 3258 8900 3258 8892
      3231 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 214DEG 41KT 3223 8912

BYB