River Flood Warning 54, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
408 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IS ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE HELPS TRIGGER
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE MOST CONDUCIVE AIR MASS FOR
SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN SEQUESTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WERE NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THE COLD POOL FROM MORNING CONVECTION.
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...AIR MASS RECOVERY HAS
BEEN A RELATIVELY SLOW PROCESS. AT THIS POINT...SURFACE WINDS IN THIS
AREA HAVE TURNED BACK AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY BUT DEWPOINTS ARE
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID 60S. GIVEN A MORE MARGINAL AIR
MASS...THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN SEVERITY AS
THEY MOVE FARTHER EAST THIS EVENING UNLESS ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
TAKES PLACE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IT IS
DECREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST.

FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A PRIMARY CONCERN. DUAL POL STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS INDICATE LOCALIZED SPOTS IN WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
MAY HAVE SEEN UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN WITH STILL MORE TO COME.
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF I-20...WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS HAVE BEEN
SEEN. ADDITIONAL RAIN IN THESE AREAS WILL AGGRAVATE EXISTING FLASH
FLOODING AND COULD LEAD TO NEW FLOODING. SO FAR THERE HAVE BEEN
FEWER ISSUES SOUTH OF I-20...WHERE MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN LESS THAN 2
INCHES OF RAIN. HOWEVER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING COULD CREATE FLOODING ISSUES TONIGHT. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 6Z.

THE SURFACE FRONT HAS ALREADY REACHED A JONESVILLE TO TALLULAH TO
GREENWOOD LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE EVENING. ALONG THE FRONT...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GRADIENT
WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH IS LIKELY...AND MOST ASOS/AWOS SITES HAVE BEEN
INDICATING GUSTS AROUND THIS MAGNITUDE. WITH THE SOIL SATURATED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...SOME TREES COULD BE PUSHED OVER THIS EVENING
DUE TO NON-THUNDERSTORM GUSTS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER
OVER EAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE OVERNIGHT. IT WILL TURN MUCH COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES SLIPPING INTO THE 30S BY MORNING IN MANY AREAS WEST
OF I-55. THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE A FROST THREAT
IN THESE LOCATIONS TONIGHT. STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE DAY TOMORROW...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE
AREA. GIVEN THE CURRENT PLETHORA OF PRODUCTS ALREADY IN EFFECT...WILL
DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS IS NEEDED.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE FOCUS TURNS TO FREEZE/HARD FREEZE POTENTIAL TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ONLY ADDS TO
OUR CONFIDENCE THAT MANY AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A FREEZE...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WHERE A HARD FREEZE
IS POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN HWO/GRAPHICAST
PRODUCTS AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER NPW PRODUCTS. /DL/

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION TIME AS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWEST. JET ENERGY DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL ALLOW A
MID LEVEL TROF TO DIG OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION LOOKS TO MOISTEN THE REGION ENOUGH FOR
SHOWERS TO BEGIN BREAKING OUT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
PULLS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY.

GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM HERE. ECMWF RESOLVES A
POTENT SRN STREAM MID LEVEL WAVE THAT GENERATES A LARGE CONVECTIVE
MASS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND PUSHES EAST INTO FL BY SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE GULF FOR ANY APPRECIABLE
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH. AM SOMEWHAT LEARY OF THIS SOLUTION.

WHILE THE GFS ALSO RESOLVES A SOUTHERN STREAM PIECE OF ENERGY THAT
IGNITES CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST FRIDAY...IT KEEPS THE MID MS
VALLEY WAVE DOMINANT AND STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY...IMMEDIATELY ON THE HEELS OF EXITING
SYSTEM...LOOKS TO MAKE A PASS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE
LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS LOWER LEVELS WILL NOT HAVE HAD ENOUGH TIME
TO RECOVER FROM THE SCOURING OF THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM./26/

&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS AND VSBY WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 06Z AS STORMS PASS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...IT HAS PASSED GLH AND IS NEAR GWO...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST AND CLEAR KHBG AROUND 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AND
GUST TO 25-35 KT AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY. /SW/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       43  56  32  64 /  80   5   0   0
MERIDIAN      47  57  27  68 /  92   6   0   0
VICKSBURG     41  60  31  66 /  53   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   49  59  32  67 /  92   4   0   0
NATCHEZ       39  57  30  66 /  62   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    36  55  33  63 /  43   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     37  57  30  64 /  63   1   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ027>033-035>066-
     072>074.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...NONE.
&&

DL/SW/EC/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
205 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-MSZ018-019-025-026-034-151915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-
GRENADA-WASHINGTON-
205 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A FROST AND FREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE GROWING SEASON WITH SOME
DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED TENDER VEGETATION WITH TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
OR EQUAL TO 32 DEGREES FOR 1-3 HOURS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

LAZ009-015-016-023>026-MSZ027>030-032-033-035>037-040>044-047>049-
053-054-059>061-151915-
EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-
CONCORDIA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
205 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

FLOODING
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL
FALL ON MANY AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 35 MPH
AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A FROST AND FREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE GROWING SEASON WITH SOME
DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED TENDER VEGETATION WITH TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
OR EQUAL TO 32 DEGREES FOR 1-4 HOURS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

MSZ031-038-039-045-046-050>052-055>058-062>066-072>074-151915-
LOWNDES-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
205 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

NON THUNDERSTORM WINDS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS RAIN WILL
FALL ON MANY AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 35 MPH
AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=5)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

A FROST AND FREEZE IS EXPECTED DURING THE GROWING SEASON WITH SOME
DAMAGE TO UNPROTECTED TENDER VEGETATION WITH TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
OR EQUAL TO 32 DEGREES FOR 1-4 HOURS ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
EXTREME...SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH OR GREATER OR WIND GUSTS 65 MPH
 OR GREATER.
HIGH...SUSTAINED WINDS 40-49 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 58-64 MPH.
ELEVATED...SUSTAINED WINDS 30-39 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 45-57 MPH.
LIMITED...SUSTAINED WINDS 20-29 MPH OR WIND GUSTS 30 TO 44 MPH.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
HIGH...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER RFC HOME PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC/
NWS SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK/INDEX.HTML
WPC QPF DISCUSSION... WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFHSD.HTML
NWS JAN OBSERVED PRECIPITATION IMAGES...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=PRECIPMAPS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
631 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE PROVIDENCE         32.81N 91.18W
04/14/2014  M5.11 INCH       EAST CARROLL       LA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            5.11 INCHES STORM TOTAL. 2.93 INCHES UP TO 7AM MONDAY AND
            2.18 INCHES UP TO CURRENT TIME.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
632 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W WAY                 32.74N 90.12W
04/14/2014                   YAZOO              MS   PUBLIC

            A TREE WAS DOWNED BLOCKING MS HIGHWAY 16

&&

DL

MSZ051-057-150020-
NEWTON MS-JASPER MS-
635 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
635 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES WEST OF PROSPECT TO 13 MILES WEST OF
BAY SPRINGS AT 635 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN JASPER AND NEWTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3191 8891 3191 8932 3257 8932 3257 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 270DEG 35KT 3256 8928 3224 8933
          3201 8945

DHB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
712 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S GOODMAN             32.92N 89.91W
04/14/2014                   ATTALA             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN GOODMAN
            AND PICKENS.

&&

ALLEN

MSZ052-058-150100-
LAUDERDALE MS-CLARKE MS-
713 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
713 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARTIN TO 16 MILES WEST
OF STONEWALL AT 713 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN CLARKE AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3200 8845 3200 8891 3257 8891 3258 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 270DEG 35KT 3259 8891 3233 8890
          3209 8902

DHB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
714 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW PICKENS            32.93N 90.02W
04/14/2014                   HOLMES             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 17 NORTHWEST OF PICKENS

&&

ALLEN