Freezing Rain Advisory 2, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
415 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2014

...MAJOR COLD FRONT SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...QUITE A CHALLENGING FORECAST
IS ON TAP FOR THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH MUCH OF IT
CENTERING AROUND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  FIRST OFF...LOOK FOR
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA AS HIGHS AGAIN WARM
INTO THE 70S UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.  RAIN CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE DELTA REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACCOMPANIED BY AN ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT MOVE CLOSER TO THE
REGION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A LINE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE CWA.  SOME STORMS ALONG THIS LINE WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF BEING STRONG TO SEVERE...PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM LAKE VILLAGE ARKANSAS TO JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI...TO COLUMBIA MISSISSIPPI.  IT'S IN THESE AREAS WHERE
THE BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP WIND SHEAR (50-60 KNOTS 0-6KM)...
FORCING...AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST.

IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT...PRIMARILY OVER EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  AS STORMS ALONG THE FRONT ADVANCE
FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
INSTABILITY IF FORECAST TO WANE AS MOISTURE GETS PINCHED OFF...AND
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY.  IN ADDITION...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXISTS OVERNIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO
THE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADS AND WELL AS IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION SETTING UP ACROSS THE
REGION AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL.  MODELS IN MANY CASES INDICATE
SOME 15-25 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROPS WITHIN A TIMEFRAME OF SOME 3-5
HOURS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  WHILE THIS MAY SEEM PRETTY
OUTLANDISH...LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONS OUT WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES AND THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING...THESE LARGE TEMPERATURE
FALLS ARE INDEED OCCURRING.

GIVEN THIS ALONG WITH CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS AND SUCH...CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED ENOUGH THAT I'VE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MY
FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN THE DELTA REGION...AND A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR REMAINING PORTIONS OF THE DELTA REGION FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.  AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO AND
BELOW FREEZING EARLY MONDAY MORNING...RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN.  CONFIDENCE IN THE WATCH AREA AT THE MOMENT IS ENOUGH
THAT ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH AND IN SOME LOCATIONS...
AND COULD PERHAPS SURPASS...ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.  ICE ACCUMULATING
ON SOME BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IS POSSIBLE...BUT WILL PRIMARILY BE
ON GRASSY SURFACES AND VEGETATION.  WHILE IN THE ADVISORY AREA...ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
WITH ACCUMULATION ON MAINLY GRASSY SURFACES...VEGETATION...AND METAL
OBJECTS.  THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION-TYPE IS FORECAST TO BE THAT OF
FREEZING RAIN...BY THE MODEL SOUNDING AT KGLH DOES INDICATE THAT
SOME SLEET COULD FALL AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT COOLS AS PRECIPITATION
IS COMING TO AN END.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END MONDAY MORNING AS A VERY
COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
MONDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY AS HIGHS IN THE DELTA STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE 30S.  ELSEWHERE...HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO
AROUND 50.  THESE TEMPERATURES ON TOP OF A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS MONDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE TEENS
IN THE DELTA TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTH. /19/

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CERTAINLY BE COLD BY MARCH STANDARDS MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE ARKLAMISS DELTA...BUT MOST RECORDS APPEAR SAFE FOR THE DATE.
THIS IS LARGELY BECAUSE HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST AND
THICKENING TOWARD MORNING WILL BE A HINDRANCE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

THESE CLOUDS WILL PROCEED A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE IN THE ACTIVE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM. AS THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE COMES
ACROSS THE AREA MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS ENOUGH LIFT TO SQUEEZE OUT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. IF PRECIP GETS GOING EARLY ENOUGH THERE COULD BE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ISSUES...BUT THIS RISK MAINLY
LOOKS CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF NE LA AND SW AND WEST CENTRAL MS. THE
MENTION OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP TYPE POTENTIAL IN THOSE AREAS WAS
INCLUDED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE MORNING HOURS...BUT WILL
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN THE HWO AT THIS JUNCTURE. REASONING FOR
THE LATTER DECISION IS MAINLY BECAUSE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE AND
ALSO IMPACT ARE BOTH RELATIVELY LOW. WE WILL OF COURSE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. REGARDLESS...TUESDAY WILL NOT FEATURE AWESOME WEATHER
UNLESS YOU LIKE DREARY AND CHILLY MARCH DAYS WHERE YOU HAVE A CHANCE
OF GETTING WET.

TUESDAY'S LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WILL PASS AND SHOULD FORCE MOST OF THE
INCLEMENT WEATHER TOWARD THE COAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS COULD BE BRIEFLY GOOD
ENOUGH IN NORTHERN HALF OF ZONES TO DELIVER AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. BUT ANY POSITIVE WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS WILL BE
REVERSING BY LATER WEDNESDAY AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN STREAM
WAVE DIGS DOWN TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES ARE
NOT AS GREAT AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE
PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE SPURRING LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. OUR REGION SHOULD BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW SO ANTICIPATE MOSTLY STRATIFORM RAIN AND
CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PERIOD...WITH WETNESS MOST
CONCENTRATED IN EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MS. PREVIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS SUGGESTED DYNAMIC LIFT WITH UL DEFORMATION ZONE PASSAGE IN
THE PRESENCE OF CHILLY TEMPS COULD POSSIBLY DELIVER A WET SNOWFLAKE
OR TWO THURSDAY. BUT THAT VERY MINOR POTENTIAL LOOKING EVEN LESS
LIKELY WITH NEW MODELS RUNS WHICH TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD HOPEFULLY BE IN STORE FOR RIDGING ALOFT WORKING
IN FROM THE WEST...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
IMPROVING/WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER CHAOTIC SO DRY CONDITIONS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND IS NOT YET A SURE BET. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF MAINLY VFR AND MVFR FLIGHT STATUSES ARE AGAIN
BEING OBSERVED AT SITES THIS MORNING AS A RESULT OF LOW CLOUDS.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND 10 KNOTS.  RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE DELTA REGION
TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE THROUGH THE REGION.  SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY IN THE WEST...WITH STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.  ACCUMULATING ICE FROM FREEZING
RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE DELTA
REGION...KGLH AND KGWO.  TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS COULD RANGE
FROM A TRACE TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH DURING THIS TIME AT THESE
SITES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       77  33  42  29 /  14 100  17   4
MERIDIAN      77  42  48  30 /   9  88  31   4
VICKSBURG     78  31  40  27 /  23 100  10   5
HATTIESBURG   78  51  52  32 /   8  80  33   7
NATCHEZ       77  33  42  28 /  14 100  13   6
GREENVILLE    70  25  31  22 /  68 100   6   4
GREENWOOD     73  26  36  22 /  48 100   9   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY      FOR MSZ026-027-035-036-040-041.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MSZ018-019-025-034.

LA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY      FOR LAZ007>009.

AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

19/BB

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