Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Jackson, MS

Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Marion County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Warren County, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1100 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

...ELEVATED TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT PLAGUED CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LAST NIGHT HAS CONGEALED INTO
AN FULL-BLOWN CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PARTIALLY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A FEW TRAILING SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN MS
ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DEPART TO THE EAST SHORTLY.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ANTICIPATE AT LEAST 6 HOURS
THAT SHOULD BE LARGELY FREE OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE TRYING TO RECOVER MOISTURE AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THIS RECOVERY SHOULD OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN AT LEAST WESTERN ZONES WITH POTENT
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX BY 2 TO 4 PM.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS STORM COMPLEX IS
NOW DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN MS AND TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AND THIS ZONE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING...BECOMING A EFFICIENT PATHWAY AND FOCUS FOR UPSTREAM STORMS
TO DEVELOP UPON AND FOLLOW DOWNSTREAM.

STEEP ATMOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SPREADING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL JUST REQUIRE RECOVERING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
GENERATE IMPRESSIVE LATE MARCH INSTABILITY (MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2000
J/KG) IN WESTERN ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON WITH DEEP SHEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR ORGANIZING SEVERE ACTIVITY GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SEEM PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FORWARD-PROPAGATING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ORGANIZING IN THE ARKLATEX AND HEADING EAST INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVES THE IMPRESSION
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CONSIDERING
THE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN WESTERN ZONES WE HAVE BUMPED UP
HWO WORDING IN THOSE AREAS...ALTHOUGH HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 OR 70 MPH STILL A POSSIBILITY IN EASTERN ZONES
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...MODELS STARTING TO GIVE A BETTER PICTURE OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES. THUS...IF AND WHEN THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTERS DEVELOP AND ADVANCE THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ALTHOUGH THE MAIN RISK SHOULD MOST LIKELY REMAIN
THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. GRAPHICS AND HWO UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS THINKING AS WELL.

FINALLY...GIVEN THE FACT THAT RAINFALL RANGED FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS MANY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WE CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST
SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE ACTIVITY COMES IN FROM THE WEST. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIMILARLY HIGH RAINFALL WITH THIS NEXT BATCH OF
ACTIVITY IS LOW...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE NEARLY AS MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE
ISSUES CONSIDERING THE SUDDENLY SATURATED GROUND STATE. GRAPHICS AND
HWO ALSO UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014/

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTER AROUND CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND THEN
SHIFT TO THE NEXT AND MORE POTENT ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.

THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSES IS NOW PIVOTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES THAT ALLOWED FOR AMPLE ISENTROPIC
MOISTURE FLUX UPGLIDE AND TRANSPORT INTO AN ELEVATED AND TO A DEGREE
NEAR SURFACE BASED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE.
NORTHWARD MOISTURE MAGNITUDE FLUX FROM 1.7" PWAT RICH AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NOW THROUGH 6AM FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MS AND 6-9AM FOR
FAR SE MS BEFORE FLUX DECREASES AND LIFT SOMEWHAT DECREASES OVER THE
REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THAT
TIME FRAME.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN STORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. TWO SEPARATE H5 S/WV IMPULSES WILL
PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND HELP
SPUR LOW LEVEL VORTICITY GENERATION ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
NOON AND EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OZARKS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. THE REGION WILL BE IN A LARGE WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC INSTABILITY
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE UNDERNEATH LAPSE RATES
/7C/KM/ AND HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO A FAVORABLE
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HI-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN EAST TEXAS EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
UPSCALE GROWTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH VORTICITY GENERATION AS STORMS
PROGRESS EAST. SEVERAL GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS INDICATE A QLCS OR
MCS DEVELOPING NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING ALONG THE MS RIVER. A CONSENSUS OF OUTPUT AND SPC SSEO
SUGGESTS THE GREATEST RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE
LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEVELOPING
SFC LOW AND LOW-LVL VORT MAXIMA TRACKING ALONG I-40. HOWEVER, WITH
STRONG FRONTAL FORCING EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH ITS NOT INCONCEIVABLE
FOR THE ROBUST LINE TO EXTEND INTO SOUTH MS WHERE BETTER SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST OR POSSIBLY BE TWO SEPARATE ENTITIES. FEEL IT
IS PRUDENT TO PLACE ALL OF ARKLAMISS IN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN
HWO/GRAPHICS. KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST AS FORECAST EVOLVES
THROUGH THE DAY.

SEVERE STORM RISK SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CLEARING AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A NICE WEEKEND AHEAD. /ALLEN/

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS IT TO QUICKLY PUSH EAST AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT SHORTWAVE
PULLS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST DOORSTEP OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY...BUT DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON
OUR FORECAST OTHER THAN TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS.

PATTERN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY MOVING INTO THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME AS
DECENT COLD CORE MOVES FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE ROCKIES. BACKING
FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL SET UP WARM ADVECTION AND RE-ENERGIZE THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTION LOOKS A GOOD BET BY WEDNESDAY AS
MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS SURGE NORTH OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MID
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT AS THE COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE. GFS/EURO
ARE SHOWING 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE COINCIDENT WITH 350 M2/S2 0-3KM
HELICITY OVER THE NW HALF BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT NEARS. SINCE THIS
EVENT IS STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT...WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR NOW./26/

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF LATE THIS MORNING CEILINGS WERE FROM IFR TO VFR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST WAVE STORMS HAS PASSED EXPECT THE SECOND
WAVE OF STORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM 3 PM IN THE WEST TO AROUND
6 PM IN THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
KNOTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THE STORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       80  57  69  42 /  66 100  10   0
MERIDIAN      76  59  72  40 /  98 100  17   0
VICKSBURG     80  58  68  41 /  97  85   8   0
HATTIESBURG   78  62  74  44 / 100 100  16   0
NATCHEZ       80  58  67  43 /  97  85   7   0
GREENVILLE    77  53  66  41 / 100  85   8   0
GREENWOOD     76  55  66  38 /  83  92  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

BB/17/ALLEN/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-292030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
325 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY

TORNADOES
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...HIGH
TIMING...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

FLOODING
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WITH THESE STORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE
GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORM OCCURRENCE WILL BE FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE KEEP UP TO DATE WITH
LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON FOR
MORE DETAILS THROUGH THE DAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ029>033-038-039-045-046-052-292030-
WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-
KEMPER-LAUDERDALE-
325 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WITH THESE STORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE
GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORM OCCURRENCE WILL BE FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE KEEP UP TO DATE WITH
LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON FOR
MORE DETAILS THROUGH THE DAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ026>028-036-037-042>044-292030-
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOLMES-ATTALA-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
325 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID EVENING ACROSS
THE REGION. ALSO A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES WITH THESE
STORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORM
OCCURRENCE WILL BE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. PLEASE KEEP UP TO DATE WITH LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON FOR MORE DETAILS THROUGH THE DAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ047-053-054-059>064-072>074-292030-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-WARREN-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
325 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

TORNADOES
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...HIGH
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS OF 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND BY MID EVENING ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. ALSO A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES MAY CAUSE
SOME FLOODING ISSUES WITH THESE STORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST
WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORM OCCURRENCE WILL BEGIN FROM 5-7 PM ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND AT 9-10 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE KEEP UP TO DATE WITH LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON FOR MORE
DETAILS THROUGH THE DAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ048>051-055>058-065-066-292030-
HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-COVINGTON-
JONES-
325 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 9 PM THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES MAY CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES WITH
THESE STORMS. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORM
OCCURRENCE WILL BE FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. PLEASE KEEP UP TO DATE WITH LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON FOR MORE DETAILS THROUGH THE DAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=4)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

17

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
HIGH...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
HIGH...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER RFC HOME PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC/
NWS SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK/INDEX.HTML
WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESS_RAIN.SHTML
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFERD.HTML
WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 7 QPF...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
WPC QPF DISCUSSION...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFHSD.HTML
NWS JAN OBSERVED PRECIPITATION IMAGES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=PRECIPMAPS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1211 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAUREL                  31.69N 89.14W
03/28/2014                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS COUNTY...INCLUDING SEVERAL IN
            LAUREL AND ELLISVILLE...COMPLETELY INUNDATED WITH FLOOD
            WATERS

&&

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1227 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PURVIS                  31.14N 89.41W
03/28/2014  E3.50 INCH       LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DITCHES FILLED UP FORCING WATER ACROSS A FEW COUNTY
            ROADS...DEPTH OF WATER NOT MORE THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES.
            RADAR ESTIMATES THAT UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN
            SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY.

&&

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1243 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE HATTIESBURG        31.29N 89.28W
03/28/2014                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THREE TREES BLOWN DOWN IN THE SUNRISE COMMUNITY NEAR
            HATTIESBURG...ALSO REPORT OF SEVERAL TRAMPOLINES BLOWN
            INTO ADJACENT YARDS

&&

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
101 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      UNION CHURCH            31.68N 90.79W
03/28/2014                   JEFFERSON          MS   PUBLIC

            A FEW CREEKS OVERFLOWED AND FORCED TEMPORARY CLOSURE OF
            ROADS...REPORTED BY PLEASANT HILL GROCERY

&&

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
118 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     HAIL             BRANDON                 32.28N 90.00W
03/27/2014  E0.25 INCH       RANKIN             MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF VERY SMALL HAIL IN THE CITY OF
            BRANDON

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSE SHELBY            33.89N 90.73W
03/27/2014                   BOLIVAR            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED ON MOHAWK ROAD

0745 PM     HAIL             4 SW EUPORA             33.51N 89.33W
03/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       WEBSTER            MS   PUBLIC

0752 PM     HAIL             EUPORA                  33.54N 89.28W
03/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       WEBSTER            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND

0754 PM     HAIL             3 ENE EUPORA            33.56N 89.24W
03/27/2014  E0.50 INCH       WEBSTER            MS   CO-OP OBSERVER

0755 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW MATHISTON         33.56N 89.19W
03/27/2014                   WEBSTER            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIGHT DAMAGE TO A DOUBLE WIDE TRAILER BETWEEN EUPORA AND
            MATHISTON

1115 PM     HAIL             MCNAIR                  31.64N 91.04W
03/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       JEFFERSON          MS   PUBLIC

1125 PM     HAIL             4 N KIRBY               31.57N 90.98W
03/27/2014  E0.88 INCH       FRANKLIN           MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN THE
            OLDENBURG COMMUNITY

1154 PM     HAIL             5 W PURVIS              31.14N 89.49W
03/27/2014  E0.25 INCH       LAMAR              MS   PUBLIC

1210 AM     HAIL             5 SW HATTIESBURG        31.26N 89.36W
03/28/2014  E0.25 INCH       LAMAR              MS   PUBLIC

            IN OAK GROVE

1211 AM     HAIL             3 SW HATTIESBURG        31.28N 89.34W
03/28/2014  E0.25 INCH       FORREST            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            IN WEST HATTIESBURG

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      UNION CHURCH            31.68N 90.79W
03/28/2014                   JEFFERSON          MS   PUBLIC

            A FEW CREEKS OVERFLOWED AND FORCED TEMPORARY CLOSURE OF
            ROADS...REPORTED BY PLEASANT HILL GROCERY

0650 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE HATTIESBURG        31.29N 89.28W
03/28/2014                   FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            THREE TREES BLOWN DOWN IN THE SUNRISE COMMUNITY NEAR
            HATTIESBURG...ALSO REPORT OF SEVERAL TRAMPOLINES BLOWN
            INTO ADJACENT YARDS

0715 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LAUREL                  31.69N 89.14W
03/28/2014                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS COUNTY...INCLUDING SEVERAL IN
            LAUREL AND ELLISVILLE...COMPLETELY INUNDATED WITH FLOOD
            WATERS

0715 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PURVIS                  31.14N 89.41W
03/28/2014  E3.50 INCH       LAMAR              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DITCHES FILLED UP FORCING WATER ACROSS A FEW COUNTY
            ROADS...DEPTH OF WATER NOT MORE THAN A COUPLE OF INCHES.
            RADAR ESTIMATES THAT UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN
            SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTY.

&&

EC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
308 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FLORENCE                32.15N 90.13W
03/28/2014                   RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING CAUSED A CREEK TO FLOOD
            RESULTING IN THE CLOSURE OF WILLIAMS ROAD FOR TWO HOURS
            THIS MORNING. RESIDENTS OF COPPERFIELD SUBDIVISION WERE
            UNABLE TO GET OUT OF THE NEIGHBORHOOD DUE TO THIS
            FLOODING.

&&

EC