Flash Flood Watch 13, NWS Jackson, MS

Concordia Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Warren County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

317 
WGUS64 KJAN 271818
FFAJAN

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1218 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND A PORTION OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...

LAZ026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-280230-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-141229T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...
EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...
WEIR...STARKVILLE...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...
GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...
YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...
PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...VICKSBURG...
JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...
UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...
STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...
BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...
WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
1218 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG AND
  SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO VICKSBURG TO GRENADA.

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE EXPECTED THIS 
  WEEKEND WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN WET GROUND 
  CONDITIONS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN THE WATCH AREA...HEAVY 
  RAINFALL RATES COULD CAUSE RAPID RUN-OFF AND FLASH FLOODING. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

AEG

899 
WGUS64 KJAN 272124
FFAJAN

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
324 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND A PORTION OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...

LAZ026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-280530-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-141229T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...
EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...
WEIR...STARKVILLE...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...
GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...
YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...
PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...VICKSBURG...
JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...
UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...
STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...
BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...
WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
324 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
  WITH LOCALLY 5 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. GIVEN WET GROUND CONDITIONS
  FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN THE WATCH AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
  COULD CAUSE RAPID RUN-OFF AND FLASH FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

26

865 
WGUS64 KJAN 280340 AAA
FFAJAN

FLOOD WATCH...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
940 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND A PORTION OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...

LAZ026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-072>074-281145-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-141229T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CONCORDIA-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-
OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-
NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...CARROLLTON...WINONA...
EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...
WEIR...STARKVILLE...DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...
GOODMAN...KOSCIUSKO...LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...
YAZOO CITY...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...CARTHAGE...
PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...VICKSBURG...
JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...
UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...
STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...
BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...
WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
940 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

* THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR TODAY OVER
  THE WATCH AREA AND AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH LOCAL
  AMOUNTS OF THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
  MORNING. GIVEN WET GROUND CONDITIONS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN THE
  WATCH AREA...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL RATES COULD CAUSE RAPID RUN-OFF
  AND FLASH FLOODING.

* FLOODED ROADS CAN BE HARD TO SEE AT NIGHT. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
  FLOODED ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

22

145 
WGUS64 KJAN 280929
FFAJAN

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
329 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND A PORTION OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...

MSZ026>030-036-042-047-281030-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-141229T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-HOLMES-YAZOO-WARREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRENADA...VAIDEN...NORTH CARROLLTON...
CARROLLTON...WINONA...EUPORA...MABEN...MATHISTON...WEST POINT...
DURANT...TCHULA...LEXINGTON...PICKENS...GOODMAN...YAZOO CITY...
VICKSBURG
329 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA TODAY...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED.

$$

LAZ026-MSZ031>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-281730-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-141229T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CONCORDIA-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...KOSCIUSKO...
LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...
JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...
UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...
STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...
BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...
WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
329 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.

* THROUGH TODAY

* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES HAVE FALLEN SO FAR THIS
  WEEKEND OVER VALID PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...AND AN ADDITIONAL
  ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY. GIVEN WET GROUND
  CONDITIONS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN IN THE WATCH AREA...ADDITIONAL
  HEAVY RAINFALL RATES COULD CAUSE RAPID RUN-OFF AND FLASH FLOODING.

* DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND
  DON'T DROWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

EC

751 
WGUS64 KJAN 281454
FFAJAN

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
854 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

...ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY...

LAZ026-MSZ031>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-281600-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.A.0013.000000T0000Z-141229T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CONCORDIA-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-
JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VIDALIA...FERRIDAY...WEST FERRIDAY...
COLUMBUS...ACKERMAN...WEIR...STARKVILLE...KOSCIUSKO...
LOUISVILLE...MACON...BROOKSVILLE...RIDGELAND...MADISON...CANTON...
CARTHAGE...PHILADELPHIA...PEARL RIVER...DE KALB...SCOOBA...
JACKSON...PEARL...BRANDON...RICHLAND...FOREST...MORTON...NEWTON...
UNION...DECATUR...CONEHATTA...MERIDIAN...PORT GIBSON...
CRYSTAL SPRINGS...HAZLEHURST...WESSON...MAGEE...MENDENHALL...
TAYLORSVILLE...RALEIGH...BAY SPRINGS...HEIDELBERG...QUITMAN...
STONEWALL...SHUBUTA...FAYETTE...NATCHEZ...BUDE...ROXIE...
MEADVILLE...BROOKHAVEN...MONTICELLO...NEW HEBRON...PRENTISS...
BASSFIELD...COLLINS...MOUNT OLIVE...LAUREL...COLUMBIA...
WEST HATTIESBURG...LUMBERTON...PURVIS...HATTIESBURG
854 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT HAS BEEN LOCALLY HEAVY ACROSS THESE
AREAS...BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN 3 INCHES IN TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. 
REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN ISOLATED AND MINOR AT BEST WITH ONLY
ONE RIVER POINT FORECAST TO GO TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL MOVING BACK IN FROM THE WEST TODAY SHOULD ONLY BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE IN NATURE WITH RAINFALL RATES NOT LIKELY TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

$$

50

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
911 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE PRECIP HAS PRETTY MUCH CEASED IN OUR AREA FOR NOW. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT THOUGH AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL INCREASE. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS...THE ARW
AND HRRR SPECIFICALLY...A LULL IS INDICATED IN THE HOURS BETWEEN 00Z
AND 09Z. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE PRESENT CASE SO THEREFORE IT HAS BEEN
REFLECTED IN OUR POPS GRIDS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK INTO
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE 12Z. THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS
WERE ADJUSTED FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...THE GOING FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE PRETTY GOOD. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN WL CONT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
SW AND BRING BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS BUT VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AT
MOST TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z SAT. THE EXCEPTION WL BE GLH WHERE IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED BEFORE 12Z SAT. CIGS WL LOWER TO IFR CONDS ALONG
WITH REDUCED VSBYS SAT MORNING AS WIDESPREAD RAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA. ISOLD TSTMS WL BE PSBL LATE SAT AFTN SE. IFR/LIFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...

..FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

RAINFALL IS SLOWLY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE W AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SLOWLY INCREASES FROM THE W/SW. CLOUDS WILL FILL IN
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING LOWS IN THE MID 50S IN THE W TO
WHILE SLOWER MOVEMENT INTO THE E LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

AS THE SFC COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND 80-100KT+ H3 JET/UPPER DIFFLUENCE AID IN INCREASING LIFT...EXPECT
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINNING TONIGHT IN OUR THE REGION.
EURO/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOMALOUS PW'S...SOME 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND THE 99TH PERCENTILE....WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE E DUE TO THE
BLOCKING OF THE 590+DM H5 RIDGE OVER SW ATLANTIC. THIS SETUP WILL PUT
THE REGION IN A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ...BETWEEN DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH/SW FLOW
ALOFT/STRONG SE UPPER RIDGE. AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DEVELOPS
ALONG THE GULF COAST...MOVES TO THE NE AND THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND...HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THERE COULD BE SOME RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES. 18Z NAM/HI-
RES ARW/NMM ARE INDICATING EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH SOME IN EXCESS OF
4-5 INCHES AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY N TOWARDS THE JACKSON METRO AREA. IN
AREAS WHERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR...WHICH IS POSSIBLE DUE
TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY/MAUL ENVIRONMENTS...THIS IS NOT OUT OF
QUESTION. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG/SE OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL RESIDE. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE THE
HEAVIEST LOOKS TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BETWEEN 18-00Z SUNDAY. EXPECT
RAINFALL TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IF GLOBAL/HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS. HWO/GRAPHICS ARE OUT HIGHLIGHTING
THE LIMITED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.

ALSO OF RELEVANCE IS THE LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAIN AREA FOR
SATURDAY WILL BE IN NE LA/SW MS WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE SE PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AND BETTER LAPSE
RATES/SOME POTENTIAL SFC INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE WITH EFFICIENT
0-1KM AND 0-3KM BULK SHEAR APPROACHING 25-35KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW ON WHERE THE MOST
EFFICIENT WIND PROFILES WILL RESIDE BUT THIS AREA IN NE LA/SRN MS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LOWER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK AND THUS ONLY A LIMITED CHANCE EXISTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. HWO/GRAPHICS ARE OUT HIGHLIGHTING THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS...THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY SWING THROUGH...BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE NW DELTA
WHILE ONLY IN THE 50S IN THE SE. FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS...WENT WARMER
TONIGHT IN W/SW DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP MOVING IN. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER
SATURDAY NEAR EURO DUE TO RAIN/OVERCAST CONDITIONS. WENT CLOSER TO
RAW GUIDANCE SATURDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS GUIDANCE WILL HANDLE THE
TEMPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BETTER THAN MOS. RELEVANT PORTION OF
THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED. /DC/

LONG TERM...

..MONDAY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK...

EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE MON NIGHT
THROUGH TUES NIGHT PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES. AS WE GO INTO MID WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT A MASSIVE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND EXPAND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION NEW YEAR'S EVE.
THE LARGEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE
ARKLAMISS BASED ON THE PRESSURE PATTERN...BUT IT WILL BE SUCH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR FOR WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW JUXTAPOSES THE SHALLOW MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR.

ALTHOUGH GFS/ECMWF ARE BEARISH WITH QPF FOR MID/LATE WEEK...THE
AIRMASS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND
PRIME FOR QUICK NORTHWARD TRANSPORT WITH THE SLIGHTEST DISTURBANCE
AND BACKING OF LOW LEVEL FLOW GIVEN THE STRONG GULF COAST BAROCLINIC
ZONE. GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON MOISTURE RETURN ON NEW YEARS EVE
AND ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF RAIN FOR NOW. HOWEVER...THERE EXISTS A
POSSIBILITY SOME OF THAT MOISTURE COULD MOVE FURTHER N OVER TOP THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS...WHICH COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY
PRECIP. WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THAT POSSIBILITY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THE ARKLAMISS WILL EXPERIENCE OVERLY COLD TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
TREND FOR INCREASING SOUTHERN STREAM SEPARATION/DOMINANCE AND NRN
STREAM RETREAT. /EC/DC/

&&

HYDROLOGY...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN OUR GRAPHICS AND THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THIS RAIN MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT SINCE IT
FOLLOWS SO CLOSELY BEHIND THE HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL IN THAT REGION ON
TUESDAY. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE CRITICAL AS TO WHETHER THIS BECOMES
A FLASH FLOODING EVENT OR JUST A SOAKING RAIN.

CONTINGENCY FORECASTS COMPLETED BY THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FORECAST CENTER FOR AREA RIVERS INDICATE THAT EVEN WITH THIS HEAVY
RAINFALL...RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. IF THE
RAIN IS A BIT HEAVIER THAN EXPECTED...A FEW RIVER POINTS MAY REACH
INTO THE MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY. OVERALL RIVER IMPACT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOW.

HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK AS A PREVIEW FOR A POTENTIAL FLOOD
WATCH. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  63  59  60 /  55 100  94  89
MERIDIAN      48  59  56  65 /  32 100  95  81
VICKSBURG     55  66  53  54 /  65 100  92  85
HATTIESBURG   53  63  63  70 /  45 100  95  70
NATCHEZ       57  67  56  57 /  65 100  94  83
GREENVILLE    53  63  46  50 /  61 100  89  61
GREENWOOD     53  61  50  52 /  42 100  92  73

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
141 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-019-025>029-034>036-040-041-271945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-
141 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

LAZ015-016-MSZ030>033-037>039-042>058-064>066-271945-
RICHLAND-MADISON LA-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
141 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...SATURDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LAZ023>026-MSZ059>063-072>074-271945-
FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
141 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...SATURDAY

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...SATURDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLE FLOODING...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

2

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
HIGH...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
HIGH...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER RFC HOME PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC/
NWS SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK/INDEX.HTML
WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESS_RAIN.SHTML
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFERD.HTML
WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 7 QPF...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
WPC QPF DISCUSSION...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFHSD.HTML
NWS JAN OBSERVED PRECIPITATION IMAGES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=PRECIPMAPS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!