Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE EVENT BEGINNING TO UNFOLD AS SQUALL LINE HAS
DEVELOPED OVER AR/LA AND IS ENTERING NW PORTIONS OF CWA.

DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED GRADIENT WINDS TO BE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE AS GUSTS HAVE EXCEEDED 30 KNOTS IN THE DELTA. WHILE THE
MIXING HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 50S...LOW LEVEL
INVERTED V FEATURE SHOWING UP WELL IN BUFR SOUNDINGS OVER THOSE
AREAS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS SHOULD FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT. WITH
ALL INDICATORS POINTING TO A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT...HAVE
ADDED SUCH WORDING TO GRIDS TONIGHT.

DESPITE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR IN PLACE...INITIAL TORNADO THREAT LOOKS
LIMITED AS DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED LCL/S TO REACH AS HIGH AS AROUND
3KFT. LCL HEIGHTS WILL LOWER...HOWEVER...AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO RISK DOES EXIST
WITH THE MAIN SQUALL LINE...AM MOST CONCERNED WITH THE TORNADO RISK
IN ANY DISCRETE CELLS THAT GET GOING AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. HRRR
AND LOCAL WRF ARE SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY DURING THE EVENING OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTH MS...EVENTUALLY MERGING INTO AND REINVIGORATING
THE LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.

ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO SWEEP RAPIDLY THROUGH TONIGHT BEING
COMPLETELY EAST OF THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS
DECREASING BEHIND. COOLER WEATHER WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY PAY A
VISIT TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH 30S AT NIGHT AND
60S DURING THE DAY. ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO RAPIDLY SHIFT WEST AND MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SETUP BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE EVEN SHOWING A
POSSIBILITY FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT./26/

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDING ACROSS
THE PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THIS FRONT
PASSES/NOTHING SIGNIFICANT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES AS
WE HEAD INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WHERE THE 00Z ECMWF TRIES TO PULL
MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD AND BREAK OUT PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF YET
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN FAIL TO SHOW THIS RETURNING
MOISTURE KEEPING THINGS FAIRLY DRY (LOW END POPS). INHERITED LOW POPS
CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD HERE TO ACCOUNT FOR INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES. IF
THE 00Z ECMWF IS CORRECT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A CHANCE FOR SOME
SNOW FLURRIES LATE TUE AS THIS NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR RUSHES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST YET THOUGH. THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT
HEADED OUR WAY LATE IN THE WEEK WHICH SEEMS PROBABLE GIVEN THE
PATTERN. IT DEFINITELY APPEARS OUR STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THESE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL NOT BE RETURNING ANY TIME SOON. DID NOT
SWAY TOO FAR FROM MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF THE SETUP
OFFERED BY THE ECMWF TAKES SHAPE FOR THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME TEMPS
OFFERED BY THE MEX WILL BE TOO COOL GIVEN RETURNING MOISTURE/WARMTH./BK/

&&

.AVIATION...
LATE THIS MORNING WE HAD A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR CEILINGS.
MAIN ISSUES TODAY WILL BE WITH STRONG SUSTAINED WIND AND HIGH GUSTS.
THE NW AREAS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SUSTAINED
20-30 KTS AND GUSTS 35-43 KTS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM
18-25 KTS AND GUSTS 30-35KTS. MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE
WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR GUSTY TSRA TO BRING INTERMITTENT IFR
CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR NW BY 21-23Z AND PROGRESS
E/SE THROUGH THE EVENING...EXITING THE REGION AFTER 07Z. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       41  63  35  68 / 100   0   0   3
MERIDIAN      41  64  31  67 / 100   0   0   3
VICKSBURG     40  64  34  70 /  99   0   0   3
HATTIESBURG   46  67  35  70 / 100   0   0   1
NATCHEZ       42  61  37  69 /  99   0   0   3
GREENVILLE    37  63  38  67 /  92   0   0   2
GREENWOOD     35  64  35  69 /  99   0   0   3

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
959 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-034>036-
040>042-047-220400-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-WASHINGTON-
HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
959 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

MSZ030>033-037>039-043>046-048>066-072>074-220400-
CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-MADISON MS-
LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-
FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-
MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
959 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

TORNADOES
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL TO SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...AND TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL
END SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THE REST
OF TONIGHT.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
HIGH...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
935 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     FLASH FLOOD      9 SSW COLLINS           31.52N 89.62W
02/20/2014                   JEFFERSON DAVIS    MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER REPORTED ACROSS GATES BRIDGE ROAD AND STATE HIGHWAY
            589 IN SOUTHWEST COVINGTON COUNTY

&&

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
940 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N COLUMBUS            33.58N 88.40W
02/20/2014                   LOWNDES            MS   PUBLIC

            DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES ON SPIVEY ROAD. REPORT VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
941 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 S COLLINS             31.54N 89.56W
02/20/2014                   COVINGTON          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER REPORTED ACROSS GATES BRIDGE ROAD...STATE HIGHWAY
            589 AND OLD US HIGHWAY 49 IN SOUTH COVINGTON COUNTY

&&

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ESE SANFORD           31.46N 89.36W
02/20/2014                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO A HOME ALONG EDDIE WALKER ROAD...POSSIBLE
            TORNADO.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
953 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0929 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W MOSELLE             31.49N 89.35W
02/20/2014                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWNED PARTIALLY BLOCKING THE ROADWAY AT MONROE ROAD
            AND STANFORD ROAD

&&

DL

MSZ049-210435-
RANKIN MS-
1003 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1003 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF PISGAH TO MONTEREY AT 1003 PM
CST...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL RANKIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3211 9021 3250 8990 3249 8976 3236 8973
      3233 8973 3212 8978
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 275DEG 33KT 3242 8985 3220 9005

CME