Flash Flood Warning 119, NWS Jackson, MS

811 
WGUS74 KJAN 232312
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
512 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MSC061-067-240045-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0119.000000T0000Z-141224T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JONES MS-JASPER MS-
512 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CST FOR
JASPER AND JONES COUNTIES...

AT 511 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED
AREA. ESTIMATED RADAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES...HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ORANGE...
PAULDING...STAFFORD SPRINGS...STRINGER AND HEIDELBERG

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT
TWO HOURS. WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3143 8939 3177 8939 3180 8936 3181 8932
      3186 8931 3204 8916 3219 8892 3210 8891
      3167 8895

$$

MRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1037 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

...SEVERE STORMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...

.UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 560
UNTIL 00Z. HWO AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE BEING UPDATED TO MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR GREENWOOD TO NEAR
MONROE LOUISIANA AND SURFACE LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NW GULF
COAST AS PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR ON THE COAST NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM THE MS/AL COASTS EASTWARD...
BUT FARTHER WEST CONVECTION IS MORE CELLULAR ALLOWING A CONTINUED
FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. MID 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE NOW REACHED
MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE...WITH SBCAPES
ALREADY BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WITH THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OVERLAYED WITH SFC-1 KM SRH MAGNITUDES OF
150-300 M2/S2...WHICH ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING NEAR THE AL/LA
BORDER...SOME OF WHICH ARE ALREADY SEVERE. MESOANALYSIS STP VALUES
GREATER THAN 1 ALREADY EXTEND INTO PARTS OF SE MISSISSIPPI...AND
LATEST SREF SIG TOR INGREDIENTS HIGHLIGHTS THE SAME AREA FOR HIGHER
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...WE
HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE THE HWO/GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS TO HIGHLIGHT STRONG
TORNADO POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THERE ARE ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-20 WHICH HAVE
MOSTLY REMAINED ELEVATED THUS FAR. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
PRODUCED SMALL HAIL THIS MORNING...AND THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. /DL/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 342 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY ADVECTS NOTICEABLE
COLDER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.  LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...AS THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SQUEEZING OUT ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.  CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER
MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FALLING DOWN AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. /19/

LONG TERM...CHRISTMAS DAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE WELCOME ON CHRISTMAS
DAY...BUT INCREASINGLY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH A RATHER LONG PERIOD OF
CLOUDS AND INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL BUILD IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

BEFORE THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM ASSERTS ITS
INFLUENCE IT IS POSSIBLE MOST OF THE DAYTIME FRIDAY COULD BE
DECENT...WITH AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE PROBABLY ONLY GREATLY
INCREASING CLOUDS (AND BRINGING IN SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES) BY LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AS
WELL.

BUT BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEFINITELY INTO SATURDAY MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS GROWN ON THE NEXT INCOMING DISTURBANCE SPURRING NEARBY
CYCLOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED DECENT RAIN CHANCES. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES COULD LAST WELL INTO SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS
AS A COLD FRONT STALLS AT LEAST BRIEFLY IN THE VICINITY AND ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS. MODEL CONSENSUS DOES NOT YET
EXPLICITLY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT I DID INCLUDE MENTION OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN HALF OF
ZONES THIS PERIOD CONSIDERING TRENDS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE THE LEADING EDGE OF A
MUCH CHILLIER REGIME WHICH THE AMPLIFYING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM WILL EVENTUALLY TRY TO PUSH TOWARD THE COAST.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE QUITE INSISTENT THAT THE ZONE/FRONT WILL
OSCILLATE AROUND THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE MAKING UP ITS
MIND TO HEAD ALL THE WAY SOUTH. THERE IS OF COURSE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT DAY TO DAY RAIN CHANCES BY THE TIME WE START NEXT WORK WEEK
BUT REST ASSURED AT LEAST SOME RAIN CHANCES ARE WARRANTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL THAT THE DESCRIBED SITUATION COULD
EVENTUALLY RESULT IN SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MY
NORTHERN ZONES...BUT THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT OF THE OFFICIAL SCOPE OF
THE EXTENDED RANGE. IF THAT POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS BY THE TIME IT
REACHES THE OFFICIAL EXTENDED WINDOW WE WILL OF COURSE BE HIGHLY
INTERESTED. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR...MVFR...AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING
OBSERVED AT SITES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THANKS TO LOW
STRATUS...FOG...AND ISOLATED CONVECTION.  THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT STATUSES PREVAILING AT MOST SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGLH AND
KGWO...SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT REMAINING SITES FROM
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KHBG AND KMEI.
THIS IS THANKS TO A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW THAT'LL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY.  INCREASING CONVECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL ALSO BRING A DEGRADATION IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES WHEN
OBSERVED ON STATION. /19/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

DL/19/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1012 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-MSZ018-019-034-241615-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-
1012 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.

LAZ026-MSZ030>033-037>039-043>046-048>051-053>055-059>061-241615-
CONCORDIA-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-ATTALA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-
CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
1012 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TODAY

THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

LAZ009-015-016-023>025-MSZ025>029-035-036-040>042-047-241615-
EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-
LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-WARREN-
1012 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TODAY

THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...AND
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

MSZ052-056>058-062>066-072>074-241615-
LAUDERDALE-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-
COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
1012 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...TODAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...TODAY

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA. DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES...SOME
STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES* EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2
 OR GREATER.
*SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER. ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES. LIMITED...TORNADOES
POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
 WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR
 LARGER HAIL.
*SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
 ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
 LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR
 GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
259 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TORNADO          1 SE COLUMBIA           31.24N 89.81W
12/23/2014                   MARION             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE STRUCTURES DAMAGED INCLUDING A MOBILE HOME PARK
            ON HIGHWAY 98.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
303 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TORNADO          2 SE COLUMBIA           31.24N 89.81W
12/23/2014                   MARION             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE VEHICLES WERE FLIPPED ON HIGHWAY 98. ALSO REPORT
            OF ROOF DAMAGE AT DIALYSIS CENTER AND CHALLENGER
            BUSINESSES ON HIGHWAY 98 AT COLUMBIA-PURVIS ROAD.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W ELLISVILLE          31.60N 89.29W
12/23/2014                   JONES              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
321 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TORNADO          2 SE COLUMBIA           31.24N 89.81W
12/23/2014                   MARION             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTS OF DAMAGE TO WAL-MART...BEACON SUPPLY...BUMPER TO
            BUMPER AUTO PARTS...CAMELLIA HOME HEALTH BUSINESSES.
            EDWARD JONES BUSINESS ON HIGHWAY 98 LOST A PORTION OF THE
            ROOF.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
347 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     TORNADO          4 NW LAUREL             31.73N 89.19W
12/23/2014                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES ON HOUSE ON MULLICAN ROAD WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED IN
            HOME.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HEIDELBERG              31.89N 88.99W
12/23/2014                   JASPER             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTS OF TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

DCOX