Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
747 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HAVE ALSO REDUCE HOURLY TEMPS AND OVERALL
MAX HIGHS FOR THE SAME REGION.

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH RAINFALL
RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOURS ARE TRAINING OVER THE MS DELTA. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE COMBINES WITH A MORE
CONCENTRATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE OZARKS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR FLASH FLOODING RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE COMBINATION
OF LIFT AND SUPPORTING THERMO ENVIRONMENT WILL AID MORE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME TSTORMS BEING STRONG TO SEVERE. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

TEXT AND GRAPHIC UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /ALLEN/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...MAIN FOCUS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE HEAT/HUMIDITY AS
WELL AS MORE AFTERNOON STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE.
DESPITE HAVING A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA WORKED OVER BY STORMS
YESTERDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS SETUP TO RELOAD AND ONCE AGAIN
DESTABILIZE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SUBTLE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA THAT HAS BEEN LEFTOVER BY STORMS THE LAST TWO DAYS. THIS
FEATURE IS GENERALLY SITUATED FROM SE MS AND EXTENDS UP TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX. WHAT IS DIFFERENT THIS MORNING IS THAT THERE EXISTS
ANOTHER BOUNDARY...THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT...AND IT EXTENDS FROM W-E
ACROSS N OK/AR. E OK AND W AR IS WHERE THESE FEATURES MEET AND IS
THE SOURCE REGION FOR OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY. A SOLID 350K
850MB THETA E AXIS ORIGINATES HERE AND IS PROGGED TO EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA TODAY AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. THERE ALSO
EXISTS A DECENT LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS WITHIN THE I-20 CORRIDOR TO
OUR WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE FEATURES WILL PROMOTE SFC
TEMPS WARMING TO 93-95 AND SFC DEWPTS HOLDING AROUND 72-75. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HI'S OF 100-105 FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
STORMS KNOCK TEMPS DOWN. ADDITIONALLY...SUCH CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
HIGH INSTABILITY AS SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES LOOK TO SPREAD OVER
SOME OF THE CWA. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SBCAPE TO NEAR 3500 J/KG. OF
NOTE IS A WELL DEFINED S/WV MOVING ACROSS OK WHICH IS ACTING ON OUR
MOISTURE SOURCE REGION AND FIRING CONVECTION THIS AM. IT APPEARS
MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER BY AFTERNOON FOR STORMS
TO FIRE AND EVOLVE E/SE INTO EARLY EVENING. WITH WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THE SFC FRONT AND IN TANDEM WITH THE MIDLEVEL WAVE. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT NEAR 20KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR WILL EXIST BY LATER IN THE
DAY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS INTO MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS. DUE TO A FAVORABLE THERMO ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING BY THIS
TIME...EXPECT A DECENT ROUND OF STRONG/SVR STORMS BETWEEN 3-9PM WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT (2.0 TO 2.2 IN
PWS) TO THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

OVERNIGHT...DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
S/WV WILL STEADILY SPREAD SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUE. THIS
WILL BEGIN LIMITING PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM N TO S DURING THIS TIME AS
AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PWS 1.5 IN OR LESS SPREADS ACROSS THE
CWA ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES ON TUE WILL MAINLY BE DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWERING CHANCES BY LATER
AFTERNOON/EVE.

AS FOR FORECAST HAZARDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF LIMITED HEAT
STRESS AS HI'S WILL PEAK BETWEEN 100-105 TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE
LAST DAY TO CARRY THIS. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT
FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS IN THE GRAPHICS AND HWO. /CME/

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT FROM
THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND DEEP LEVEL DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE AREA. WHILE WEDNESDAY AND TO
SOME EXTENT THURSDAY WILL BE LIMITED COOL AIR ADVECTION DAYS...FRIDAY
SHOULD SEE A 30 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE AS THE AUGUST SUN WORKS ON THE
DRY AIR TO BOOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S AFTER STARTING IN THE MID
60S.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. WHILE THEY
BOTH AGREE THAT THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN BACKING UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEY DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE TOPPING THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THE ECMWF
WANTS TO KEEP THE WAVE WEEK AND MOVE THE WAVE EAST AS RIDGING TAKES
PLACE TO THE SOUTH. THE GFS DROPS THE WAVE SOUTHEAST IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AS A GENERAL TROFFINESS REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
STATES. GFS SOLUTION LOOKS MORE BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR
TROFFINESS OVER THE EASTERN STATES THIS SUMMER. THIS ALL BOILS DOWN
TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE POSSIBILITIES WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN THE NORM
FOR THIS SUMMER./26/

&&

.AVIATION...
LOOK FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR VIS CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE
THEN VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
AFTERNOON/EVE STORMS. OVERNIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP...SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT. /CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       94  72  92  68 /  55  48  21  11
MERIDIAN      93  72  92  67 /  58  50  26  12
VICKSBURG     94  71  92  63 /  57  45  16   9
HATTIESBURG   95  74  95  72 /  50  47  39  16
NATCHEZ       93  73  90  69 /  48  37  29   9
GREENVILLE    91  71  90  65 /  72  19   7   5
GREENWOOD     92  71  91  64 /  76  22   9   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

ALLEN/CME/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
442 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
120945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
442 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...3 TO 9 PM

EXCESSIVE HEAT
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...AFTERNOON

THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 3 AND 9 PM. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
PEAKING BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS ARE
ADVISED TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING OUTSIDE
IN THESE CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.

CME

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 115
 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105
 DEGREES FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
HIGH...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 110 TO 114 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 109 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 100 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR ONE TO THREE
 DAYS.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
938 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLEVELAND               33.74N 90.73W
08/11/2014                   BOLIVAR            MS   PUBLIC

            SOME STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN CLEVELAND.

&&