Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
357 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM
EDT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND 90S...PUTTING HEAT INDICES AROUND 100. AS A
RESULT...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S. ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES...COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

HAVE ISSUED A ADVISORY FOR HIGH HEAT INDEX CONDITIONS WITH INDICIES
AROUND 100F THIS AFTERNOON IN THE TROPICAL TYPE OF AIRMASS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED INTO THIS EVENING AS
CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS CAPES EXCEEDING 5000 J/KG AT
19Z. ALSO...DTX 18Z CAPE WAS OVER 5000. STORMS WERE JUST STARTING TO
BREAK THROUGH A WEAKER CAP OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND NE IL AT MID
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TO INCREASE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND IS
ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH A STRONGER CAP FURTHER SOUTH. NAM 12 KM AND HI
RES ARW APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THIS SCENARIO THE BEST OF MODELS...
ALTHOUGH THE ACTUAL CAP MAY BE STRONGER THAT WHAT THE ARW IS SHOWING
OVER INDIANA. GIVEN THE HIGH CAPE...A HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT AND
LOW BULK/SHEAR...STORM ORGANIZATION LOOKS MORE MARGINAL WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE GREATEST THREATS. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

COOL POST FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE E-NE TO THE NERN U.S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER/LIGHT WINDS WITH JUST PATCHY CU/STRATO CU
SUNDAY-MONDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT BLO NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE U40S/L50S AND HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE L-M70S. RETURN FLOW/AIRMASS MODIFICATION SHOULD RESULT
IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH RIDGING
PROVIDING CONTINUED DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS. A SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS IN ZONAL FLOW TO THE GRTLKS TUE/WED.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH/TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM SO POPS TUE-WED PRBLY CAN EVENTUALLY BE WHITTLED DOWN
TO A 12HR PERIOD OR TWO, BUT MODEL CONSISTENCY LACKING TO DO THAT
ATTM.

FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF STRONG SHRTWVS DIG SE FROM SWRN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH SUBSEQUENT UPR TROF THEN PROGRESSING SLOWLY EAST. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF
INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS AND AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION SO CONFIDENCE FAIRLY
LOW BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO THU BEFORE STRONG HIGH
RIDGES INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NW THU NGT AND FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD TURN UNSEASONABLY COOL BY LATE WEEK AS
UPR TROF MOVES IN WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN
INDIANA WITH SPC MESOALALYSIS CAPES BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 J/KG AT
17Z. A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS PAIR SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
RAPIDLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE ENERGY. KEPT A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDER EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION. KEPT SOME POST FRONTAL MVFR
CLOUDS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ078>081.

OH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-
     015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-061945-
ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014 /234 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 65 MPH...BUT LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER 90S TODAY. COMBINED
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEND IN REPORTS AS STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ003-MIZ077-061945-
LA PORTE-BERRIEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014 /234 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 65 MPH...BUT LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY.
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY...THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH WAVES AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE ON
SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEND IN REPORTS AS STORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061945-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
334 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND
LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES.

CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
427 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2014

INZ013-020-022-052115-
CASS IN-PULASKI IN-WHITE IN-
327 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTY...MOVING INTO
NORTHWESTERN CASS...AND SOUTHERN PULASKI COUNTIES...

AT 323 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONON...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MONTICELLO...MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  WINAMAC...
  ROYAL CENTER...
  LAKESIDE AND BUFFALO...
  PULASKI...HEADLEE AND BELL CENTER...
  STAR CITY...
  THORNHOPE AND LAWTON...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY
EVENING/900 PM EDT FRIDAY EVENING/ FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4087 8698 4091 8698 4092 8694 4099 8694
      4108 8650 4098 8647 4091 8647 4091 8644
      4087 8643 4080 8697 4087 8699
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 257DEG 25KT 4090 8687

JBALL

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