Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
802 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK COOL FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...AND A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE A LOW CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
INDIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...AND NORTHWEST OHIO. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN...TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ALONG WEAK COOL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE SCALE FORCING HAS ALSO BEEN AIDED BY A PAIR
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...ONE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...AND ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT MAX WORKING EASTWARD
OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AN AXIS OF 1500-2500 SBCAPES EXISTS
DOWNSTREAM OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ON THE MARGINAL SIDE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE SUGGESTING
COLD POOL BALANCE MAY BE INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN. SOME LOW
END SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING LINGERING UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED OR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF PRIMARY
CONVECTION...BUT CURRENTLY NO SEVERE RISK IS ANTICIPATED WITH ANY
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING. WEAK GRADIENT AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PROMOTE SOME PATCHY FOG
REDEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...OR PERHAPS SOME PATCHY STRATUS. WILL
OMIT FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

ON WEDNESDAY UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH A FEW WEAK VORT LOBES LIKELY ROTATING AROUND
PARENT UPPER LOW INTO ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND SHOULD BE
TIED TO PEAK HEATING HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO TEMPS FOR
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS STILL ON SCHEDULE FOR THE GREAT LAKES
LATER THIS WEEK AS UPPER LOW EXITS EASTWARD AND RIDGE BUILDS
DOWNSTREAM OF DIGGING NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES AND
TIMING REMAIN THE BIGGEST SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY. WARM FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
WILL PROBABLY BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN OUR CWA.
305K ISENTROPIC FIELDS SHOW GOOD SYSTEM RELATIVE CROSS-ISOBAR FLOW
WITH A MODEST DEGREE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL. THE PROBLEM IS
THERE IS VERY LITTLE SUPPORT ALOFT GIVEN BUILDING LONGWAVE RIDGE.
MIDLEVEL VORTICITY FIELDS SHOW JUST A WEAK AND HIGHLY SHEARED WAVE
CASCADING OVER THE RIDGE. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR LIKELY POPS AT THIS POINT. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH...IF ANY...CONVECTION DO WE SEE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A HEALTHY CAPPING
INVERSION MAY DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. WHERE
EXACTLY THE FRONT SETS UP...AND THE TIMING/COVERAGE OF MORNING
PRECIP...WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE LOCATION AND DEGREE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. FOR NOW...EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES IN OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES. DECENT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT NEAR
THE SURFACE GENERATES AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS AND NAM. WITH 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 30 KTS...THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. IT IS A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL THREAT THOUGH...DEPENDENT ON
EVOLUTION OF MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP AND DEGREE OF FORCING LEFT IN OUR
CWA.

LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THERMAL
RIDGE PUSHES NORTHEAST AND CAP STRENGTHENS. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH CONVECTIVE QPF BUT ALSO HAS SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 80F. SUSPECT
A MORE REALISTIC SURFACE DEWPOINT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL BE
INSUFFICIENT TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAPPING INVERSION GIVEN LITTLE TO
NO TRIGGER MECHANISM. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IT WILL BE VERY
WARM THOUGH. COULD SEE THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS OF THE YEAR THIS
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND 20C...SUPPORTING HIGHS AROUND
90F. AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WOULD PUSH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO NEARLY 100F.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ON COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO THIS EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED THE PAST HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST INDIANA. THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE
LINKED TO TO INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM VORT MAX
TRACKING OUT OF NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
STILL EXISTS FROM SOUTHWEST INDIANA INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA...AND
POTENTIAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL CARRY VCTS MENTION AT KFWA FROM
00Z-02Z WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE AT TERMINALS. INCREASING
SFC BASED CIN LATE THIS EVENING SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH SHOWER
COVERAGE BY THIS TIME...AND WILL KEEP REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD DRY
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BECOMING ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH WEAK GRADIENT AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTING...SOME CONCERN FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN TREND TO MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1005 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-201200-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1005 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014 /905 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...
PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. SEVERE STORMS ARE NO
LONGER EXPECTED...THOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE. FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BECOME DENSE
TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-201200-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1005 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED STORM
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
944 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

OHZ016-024-025-200215-
ALLEN OH-PUTNAM OH-VAN WERT OH-
944 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD WESTERN ALLEN...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PAULDING...SOUTHEASTERN VAN WERT AND SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM
COUNTIES...

AT 940 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OHIO CITY...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF VAN WERT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

UP TO DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  VAN WERT...
  DELPHOS...
  OTTOVILLE...
  ELGIN...
  VENEDOCIA...
  MIDDLE POINT AND SOUTHWORTH...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4070 8444 4073 8445 4073 8468 4078 8473
      4090 8462 4099 8440 4099 8434 4102 8434
      4105 8426 4087 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 235DEG 29KT 4076 8456

PBM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1038 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

OHZ016-024-025-200315-
ALLEN OH-PUTNAM OH-VAN WERT OH-
1038 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN ALLEN...EASTERN VAN
WERT AND SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES...

AT 1036 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DELPHOS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  OTTOVILLE...
  ELIDA...
  KALIDA...
  COLUMBUS GROVE...
  NEEDMORE...
  FORT JENNINGS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 129 AND 135.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4102 8426 4107 8410 4083 8397 4076 8409
      4076 8446 4089 8447
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 256DEG 21KT 4087 8437

PBM

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