Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
311 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING AIDED BY VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S...AND LOWS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN THE MID
60S AND LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

REINVIGORATING CONV LINE INADV OF POTENT MCV MARCHING EWD ACRS WI
THE NR TERM CHALLENGE THIS PD. COPIOUS MSTR IN PLACE ALG W/RAPID
MORNING DESTABILIZATION HAS LED TO A CONCRETE SHRT TERM SVR THREAT
EWD ACRS THE AREA. IN ADDN ECHO ALIGNMENT WITHIN MID LVL SHEAR
VECTORS PORTEND A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ESP THROUGH CNTRL CWA
THROUGH THIS AFTN. WILL BUMP POPS APPRECIABLY THROUGH FIRST PART OF
EVENING AS TENDENCY SHLD BE FOR REDVLPMNT TO TAKE PLACE WITHIN WRN
FLANK OF GROWING COLD POOL LTR THIS AFTN.

OTRWS OVERNIGHT PD REMAINS SKETCHY OWING TO EFFECTS OF CURRENT
GROWING CONV CLUSTER TAKING SHAPE ACRS NE IL/NW IN AND WHERE
UPSTREAM LIKELY SVR MCS DVLPMNT TAKES PLACE THIS AFTN. RUC/HRRR
WOULD SUGGEST LL WAA OVERTOP OUTFLW BUBBLE THIS EVENING WILL SUSTAIN
ADDNL DVLPMNT ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA AND GENERALLY BROADBRUSHED POPS
IN ACCORDANCE W/NEWER 12Z MOS GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS AN EVENTUAL SWD
SAG XPCD OVERNIGHT W/COMPOSITED OUTFLW/SYNOPTIC SFC BNDRY AND HAVE
BOUGHT INTO MODEL CONSENSUS OF SHIFTING PCPN WELL SOUTH OF AREA
TOMORROW. HAVE CUT/ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVES WORK EAST IN FLATTENED WNW
FLOW...WITH CONVECTION/MCV'S LIKELY LATCHING ONTO A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY. THE RESULT IS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES IN LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE BEYOND 24 HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS/HVY RAIN STILL APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AS CORRIDOR OF
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND NORTHEAST PUSH OF RICH THETA-E AIR IN ADVANCE
OF A LEAD WAVE EJECTING EAST FROM A NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
CLOSED LOW OVERSPREADS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
ON STRENGTH OF FLOW ON SOUTHERN FLANK OF POTENTIAL MCV AND TIMING OF
WAVE (DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION).

LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH FRIDAY'S WAVE FORCING COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH WITH
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS. WITH THAT SAID STILL
HELD WITH LOW CHC POPS GIVEN RELIANCE/UNCERTAINTY OF FRIDAY'S WAVE
TO SHUNT FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. A SIMILAR REGIME IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE MORE TROUGHING/DEEPER NW FLOW
FINALLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
RESULTING IN DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO TEMPS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

SHALLOW/BRIEF MVFR CIGS ASSOCD/W TAIL END OF DECAYING CONV REMNANTS
ACRS NW IN WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY INTO THIS AFTN. LTL SIGN YET OF
WHERE/WHEN RENEWED CONV DVLPMNT WILL OCCUR AND AS SUCH WILL SIT
TIGHT W/IMPLIED DRY TAF FCST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS FOR NEW CONVN TO INITIATE FM ERN IA EWD THROUGH NRN IL
THIS EVENING AS LLJ KICKS UP AND THEN GROW UPSCALE INTO A FWD
PROPAGATING MCS AS IT SPREADS EWD THROUGH THE SRN LAKES OVERNIGHT.

OTRWS GUSTY SWRLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNSET.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
219 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-191830-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
219 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014 /119 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SINK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-191830-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
219 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>