Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
336 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA TODAY
BRINGING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT WILL
TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN
CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
50 TO 55 ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

LOOSELY DEFINED "COLD" FRONT...MORE ACCURATELY DESCRIBED AS A WEAK
SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WITH A MODEST MOISTURE/DENSITY
GRADIENT...CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESS
TIME. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED...VERY LITTLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ALONG THIS
FRONT WITH JUST A VERY WEAK VORTICITY LOBE WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING DRIVEN BY SUBTLE CONVERGENCE
ALONG OLD OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES IN A MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. EARLY DAY INSOLATION ALLOWED FOR A
DECENT RISE IN MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHILE FAR
NORTHERN ZONES REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED AND STABLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THEREFORE DEVELOPED IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA AS
EXPECTED. LACK OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR AND/OR CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSE/MULTICELLULAR MODE THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BUT
THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL THE MAIN THREAT WITH HIGH PW VALUES...WEAK FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT...AND MORE EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HRRR AND OTHER
HI-RES GUIDANCE HAVE HAD A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTION SO FAR
TODAY AND SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AND DRIFT SOUTH BY
AROUND 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUAL SOUTHWARD
PUSH OF FRONT. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
SUPPORTS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW MORNING IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT CHANCES ARE VERY
LOW. THERMAL PROFILES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM
CURRENT VALUES AND EXPECT INCREASING SUN TO SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
HIGHS NEAR 80F. DEWPOINTS WILL BE TOUCH LOWER THOUGH...TAKING THE
HUMIDITY DOWN A NOTCH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WILL START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TROF ALONG THE NOAM WEST COAST
EJECTS EASTWARD AND WHILE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND
EVOLUTION THERE IS ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT A FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE CHALLENGE IS THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z
GFS RUN. 12Z MODEL IS MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE GEM/ECMWF AND
UKMET - THE 06Z AS THE OUTLIER HAD THE LOW EJECTING FROM THE PLAINS
IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE MUCH TO FAST AND TOO FAR SOUTH.

REGARDLESS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE AREA WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR...EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS CURRENTLY FORECAST
AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE A DRAMATIC CHANGE TO CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST.

AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SLIGHT COOLING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND STRONG
DIABATIC HEATING HAS ALLOWED SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
KSBN BUT THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT KFWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LIMITED SHEAR AND LACK OF FOCUSED TRIGGERING MECHANISM WILL KEEP
CONVECTION SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LEWIS
AVIATION...AGD

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
218 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

INZ013-015-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ024-025-281845-
ADAMS IN-ALLEN OH-BLACKFORD IN-CASS IN-FULTON IN-GRANT IN-HUNTINGTON
IN-JAY IN-MIAMI IN-PULASKI IN-VAN WERT OH-WABASH IN-WELLS IN-WHITE
IN-
218 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH ALLEN...SOUTHERN
VAN WERT...EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM...BLACKFORD...JAY...GRANT...
WHITE...CASS...WELLS...ADAMS...MIAMI...HUNTINGTON...WABASH...
SOUTHERN PULASKI AND SOUTHERN FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 214 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION....MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

ISOLATED WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  HUNTINGTON...
  SWAYZEE...
  SWEETSER...
  JALAPA...
  HERBST AND NORMAL...
  BANQUO...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 186 AND 198.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 254 AND
292.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 119 AND 139.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4064 8388 4072 8479 4032 8480 4032 8521
      4039 8522 4040 8587 4058 8587 4058 8637
      4070 8638 4070 8653 4075 8653 4075 8675
      4058 8678 4058 8710 4083 8710 4084 8700
      4096 8694 4102 8603 4092 8533 4087 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 301DEG 7KT 4068 8571

PBM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
302 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

INZ025-026-281945-
HUNTINGTON IN-WELLS IN-
302 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GRANT...
SOUTHWESTERN WELLS AND SOUTHERN HUNTINGTON COUNTIES...

AT 259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHWESTERN HUNTINGTON COUNTY...OR 11 MILES
SOUTH OF HUNTINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PLEASANT PLAIN...
  LANCASTER...
  WARREN...PLUM TREE AND BUCKEYE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 69 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 273 AND
280.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4066 8547 4068 8564 4071 8564 4077 8561
      4073 8528 4059 8532
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 284DEG 8KT 4073 8556

PBM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
316 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

INZ013-015-022-281945-
CASS IN-FULTON IN-PULASKI IN-
316 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN CASS...SOUTHEASTERN
PULASKI AND SOUTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES...

AT 311 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROYAL CENTER...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WINAMAC...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LAWTON...
  KEWANNA...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4106 8657 4106 8619 4083 8617 4086 8657
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 184DEG 8KT 4095 8647

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

INZ020-282015-
WHITE IN-
331 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTY...

AT 327 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF BROOKSTON...OR 16 MILES NORTHWEST
OF LAFAYETTE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BROOKSTON...
  BADGER GROVE...
  CHALMERS...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 65 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 186 AND 195.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4070 8710 4069 8677 4068 8677 4068 8678
      4065 8677 4058 8677 4057 8699 4058 8710
      4068 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 270DEG 16KT 4061 8700

PBM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>