Special Weather Statement, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO WITH SEVERE WEATHER A POSSIBILITY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE 60S WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH
LOCALLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE LAKE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS IN VICINITY
OF LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. A SECONDARY AREA OF WEAK PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE HAS
ALSO LED TO A SECONDARY BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEPICTED PER 23Z RAP
ANALYSIS FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 100 HPA MLCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000
J/KG. AS OF 23Z...STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESIDES NORTH AND
WEST OF LOCAL AREA...BUT POCKET OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES
SHOULD OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. PER SPC MESODISCUSSIONS AND CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOKS...UPSCALE GROWTH STILL OF SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN
LACK OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR
SHOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT ISOLD SEVERE RISK INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING CONSIDERING ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ONLY TWEAK TO SHAVE OFF POPS SOME ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. DID NOT MAKE
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO POPS AFTER 03Z WITH SOME CONCERN THAT IF
UPSTREAM CONVECTION CAN CONGEAL...EASTWARD PROPAGATION WILL
ACCELERATE LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO OVERNIGHT
HOURS...

MAIN FOCUS RESIDES ON COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL LK MI INTO
IOWA WHICH WILL BECOME THE TRIGGER POINT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CONCERNS LOOM IN EXACTLY HOW THESE STORMS WILL
EVOLVE AND DROP SE TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SFC BASED CAPES 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WERE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONT WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING SHEAR. CU
FIELD HAVE BEEN RATHER SUBDUED THUS FAR ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER ALL
HIGH RES MODELS SEEM TO POINT TOWARDS RAPID FORMATION OF STORMS IN
THE 21 TO 23Z TIME FRAME. INITIAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/SOME SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL PRODUCE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT. COLD POOL SHOULD BEGIN TO
ESTABLISH WITH CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATED A RAPID FORWARD PROPAGATION
INTO NW PARTS OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z AND OVERSPREADING AT LEAST
NORTHERN HALF THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. TIMING OF DAY WILL PLAY
SOMEWHAT AGAINST SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WILL FACT THAT ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WILL RESIDE WELL NW OF THE AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ALL SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT THIS EVENING...WARRANTING INCREASE IN POPS AND ADDITION OF
SVR WORDING. SOUTHERN EXTENT VERY QUESTIONABLE AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
EVENTUALLY RACE AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL FOR THE
LINE TO STALL OUT WITH HRRR INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ILLINOIS/IOWA MOVING IN LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
NOT ADDED MENTION OF HVY RAIN...BUT TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH INHERENT THREAT FOR FLOODING. WILL DEFER TO EVE SHIFT
TO MONITOR TRENDS.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARY FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BEING KEY IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS ACTUAL COLD
FRONT MOVES IN. NEW DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS SHOVED SLGT RISK A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS MAINLY SE THIRD OF THE AREA WHICH IS REASONABLE AT THIS
STAGE. WILL DEFER TO OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

CDFNT SHOULD BE MOVG THROUGH S-SE PORTION OF CWA AT START OF THE
PERIOD WED EVE. CONVECTION WILL PRBLY HAVE MOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BY 00Z AND BE LOCATED S-SE OF THE CWA, BUT THERE IS A SMALL
CHC OF ACTIVITY CONTG TO DEVELOP ALONG IT, SO MAINTAINED A LOW POP
THROUGH WED EVE. COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE CDFNT BY THURSDAY. SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH THE UPR GRTLKS
TONIGHT/WED EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NERN
U.S./SE CANADA BY THU WITH ANOTHER CUT-OFF LOW LINGERING OVER THE
SWRN CONUS WHILE IN BETWEEN RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL PROVIDE
OUR AREA WITH FAIR WX LATE THIS WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO
MAKE SLOW E-NE PROGRESS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LIKELY CONTG THE DRY SPELL ACROSS OUR CWA. TEMPS THU SHOULD BE A
BIT BLO NORMAL, MODIFYING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE UPR RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME DEVELOPING
INSTABILITY AS SFC HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY, BUT
PROXIMITY OF UPR LEVEL RIDGE SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTION IN OUR AREA
WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST, SO FOR NOW HELD OFF ADDING TO FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS DICTATING NEAR TERM TAF PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE LINES ABOUT TO MOVE THROUGH BOTH KSBN AND KFWA. WIND
GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM REDUCED VIS IN HEAVY RAINFALL. KFWA TO SEE
END TO PCPN BY 07Z BUT RADAR SHOWS SEVERAL CLUSTERS WEST OF KSBN
THAT MAY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THAT SITE THROUGH 09Z OR 10Z. MVFR
CIGS AND VIS DEVELOPMENT IN COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER STILL
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LOW END CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL CLOSER TO KFWA SO INCLUDED
A PROB30 THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...LASHLEY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
425 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-212030-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
425 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014 /325 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...THE GREATEST
THREAT EXISTS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KNOX TO GOSHEN
TO COLDWATER. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 24.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-212030-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
425 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS...
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGH WAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
953 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

INZ003-004-210215-
LA PORTE IN-ST. JOSEPH IN-
853 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN LA PORTE AND WESTERN
ST. JOSEPH COUNTIES...

AT 848 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA PORTE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  NORTH LIBERTY...
  BYRON...STILLWELL AND ROLLING PRARIE...
  FISH LAKE...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 90 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND
55.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING/500 AM EDT WEDNESDAY MORNING/ FOR NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

LAT...LON 4170 8641 4151 8643 4157 8688 4170 8687
TIME...MOT...LOC 0152Z 275DEG 31KT 4162 8677

MARSILI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     HAIL             1 NW LA PORTE           41.62N  86.74W
05/20/2014  E0.88 INCH       LA PORTE           IN   PUBLIC

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL NEAR PINE LAKE

&&

NG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1231 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PLYMOUTH                41.35N  86.31W
05/21/2014                   MARSHALL           IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            MEDIA REPORTS A TREE DOWN ONTO A HOUSE ON BAKER STREET
            IN PLYMOUTH.

&&

NG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1244 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1242 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 N NORTH WEBSTER       41.36N  85.70W
05/21/2014  E50 MPH          KOSCIUSKO          IN   NWS OFFICE

&&

NG

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