Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
518 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT... WITH
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 516 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

WRN FLANK OF MORNING OUTFLW BNDRY HAS MIXED OUT RAPIDLY THIS AFTN
AHD OF SIG BOW ECHO CROSSING MS RIVER LT THIS AFTN. THUS GIVEN
RAMPANT ESCALATION OF BOTH SFC BASED CAPE AND 1000-850MB MEAN
MIXING RATIOS INTO NW INDIANA XPC THIS SYS WILL MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY EASTWARD INTO WRN CWA BTWN 7-8 PM EDT. ERN EXTENT OF SVR
RISK SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN PERSISTENCE OF OUTFLW INDUCED CINH
HWVR LARGER SCALE MIDLVL SPEED MAX OF 60KTS MAY INDEED CARRY
DAMAGING WIND RISK FARTHER EAST THEN IMPLIED IN SVR WATCH 375 AS
EVEN ERN AREAS MAY RECOVER SUFFICIENTLY BFR SUNSET.

ZONE UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED W/SIG POP/WX GRID CHGS MADE TO REFLECT
EWD EXTRAPOLATION OF SEVERE BOW ECHO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

SHRTWV EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVG INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS
AFTN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IN OUR AREA HAS BEEN
LIMITED BY STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TODAY... BUT CLOUDINESS
SHOULD CONT TO DIMINISH THE REST OF THE DAY ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTN. THIS INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THIS EVE AS A 50KT LLJ DEVELOPS OVER MO AHEAD OF APCHG
SHRTWV/CDFNT. STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPR LEVEL JET OVER THE UPR GRTLKS
WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA TONIGHT HELPING TO MAINTAIN MCS
CURRENTLY OVER IA THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.
BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS LONGER THAN MODELS
INDICATED... PREFER WRF ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS WHICH SUGGEST ORGANIZED
CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO OH BY DAYBREAK TUE. THIS SCENARIO
REFLECTED WELL IN CURRENT POP/WX GRIDS AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
FOR OVERNIGHT. AS INDICATED BY LATEST SPC OUTLOOK... GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR MAINTAINING SVR STORMS AT LEAST INTO NW PORTION OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT... WITH GREATEST THREAT DAMAGING WINDS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
WARM/MUGGY NIGHT BUT SHOWERS/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS
TO FALL NEAR 70... ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW PORTION OF CWA WHERE THERE
IS THE BEST CHC OF HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IA THIS AFTN IS EXPECTED TO SURGE EAST TO
WRN PORTION OF OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT... AND THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE TUE AS LEAD SHRTWV LIFTS NE ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS AND A
SECOND SYSTEM DIGS SE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE DEEPENING UPR
LEVEL TROF. THUS... CAA WILL GENERALLY BE WK ACROSS OUR AREA TUE
RESULTING IN ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE
M-U80S. EXCEPTION WILL BE NW WHERE MORE SGFNT COOLING EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. DRIER AIR SHOULD ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SW TUE AND WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WKNG... STRONGEST
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA BY LATE
AFTN... BUT STILL A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH EARLY AFTN ACROSS SERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. IF STORMS DO DVLP
GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-35KT 0-6KM SHEAR... SVR STORMS
AGAIN A POSSIBILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

COOL...TRANQUIL PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL FEEL ALMOST FALL LIKE AS A TROUGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA
BRINGING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE COOLEST AIR OF THE PERIOD ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
SITES DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD AND WINDS GO CALM ALLOWING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. SOME
INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE BRINGING CONVECTIVE CHANCES AGAIN BY LATE
SUNDAY...BUT PREFER SLOWER SOLUTIONS AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
ATTM. BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE AREA AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 112
PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK LINGERING OVER NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS AFT... BUT
SHOULD MIX OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. REST OF THE AFTN
SHOULD BE VFR WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
AREA... TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS. MCS OVER IA IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO NRN INDIANA TONIGHT... IMPACTING SBN AROUND
03Z AND FWA AROUND 05Z. POTENTIAL FOR SVR WIND GUSTS WITH THIS
LINE. SOME MVFR STRATUS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS LINE LATE TONIGHT...
BUT SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY TUE MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...JT

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
503 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-022>025-032-MIZ077>079-011000-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-NOBLE-STARKE-PULASKI-
MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-
HUNTINGTON-GRANT-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...KENDALLVILLE...
LIGONIER...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...
BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...
SOUTH WHITLEY...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...MARION...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS
503 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014 /403 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

INZ007-009-018-026-027-033-034-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-
024-025-011000-
STEUBEN-DE KALB-ALLEN IN-WELLS-ADAMS-BLACKFORD-JAY-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-
WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANGOLA...AUBURN...GARRETT...FORT WAYNE...
BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...
PORTLAND...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...
DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...
VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
503 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-011000-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
503 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE