Small Craft Advisory 28, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
352 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA
LATER THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA...TO
THE UPPER 50S OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE AREA AT PRESS TIME.
MIDLEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND EARLIER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN SHOWERS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF
THE MAIN FRONT. TROPOSPHERE HAS DESTABILIZED A BIT AS A RESULT
WITH SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATING AROUND 1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. MODEST 1000-850MB CONVERGENCE IN THIS
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS ALLOWED ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PARENT VORT MAX AND SURFACE
LOW ARE LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THOUGH AND EASTWARD PROGRESS OF
COLD FRONT IS SLOWING AND CONVERGENCE IS BECOMING MORE
BROAD/DIFFUSE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE
TO CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST SPORADIC
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO EFFERVESCE ACROSS THE AREA. AS
NOTED IN PRIOR UPDATE DISCUSSION...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED. MORNING CLOUDS/PRECIP HAVE STIFLED DIURNAL RECOVERY AND
ANY POCKETS OF DIABATIC HEATING HAVE BEEN FILLING IN QUICKLY GIVEN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. HAS THEREFORE BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET ANY
MEANINGFUL UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP. BETTER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA GIVEN HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND MORE FOCUSED SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH PASSING
MIDLEVEL SPEED/VORTICITY MAX. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST
THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING
BUT MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE CLEARLY LACKING ACROSS OUR CWA.
ALREADY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO FURTHER WANE AFTER SUNSET.
WILL THEREFORE GO WITH JUST SCT WORDING THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
LITTLE TO NO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR OUR
SOUTHEAST CWA BY 12Z TOMORROW AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
THERMAL TROUGH LARGELY BYPASSES US TO THE NORTH THOUGH AND EXPECT
HIGHS TO STILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S...GENERATING A
FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO DEPART TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT SETTING UP
RENEWED LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY INITIALLY HOWEVER
WITH HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
MOST PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL THETAE CONVERGENCE SATURDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO RESIDE FROM THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
CORN BELT. STILL SOME DIFFERING IDEAS IN TERMS OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT WITH THICKNESS RIDGE JUST
UPSTREAM OF LOCAL AREA...FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR NORTHWEST INDIANA FOR REMNANTS OF ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS FOR
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT THIS POINT WITH STRONG
MUCAPE GRADIENT EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADJUST POPS UPWARD FOR THIS
PERIOD...BUT WOULD EXPECT ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL BE IN A
WEAKENING STAGE UPON REACHING THE LOCAL AREA.

DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
SECONDARY LOW LEVEL THETAE SURGE...MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY.
PLUME OF STEEPER 850-700 HPA LAPSE RATES IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ADVECT
INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
GENERALLY DEPICTING LITTLE OR NO SBCIN. WILL MAINTAIN MID RANGE
CHANCE TSRA POPS FOR SUNDAY WITH LIMITING FACTOR TO HIGHER END
CHANCES BEING LACK OF STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING. LITTLE OR NO CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECASTED HIGHS FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

12Z GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD A SLOWER AND MORE AMPLIFIED
EVOLUTION WITH THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...MORE INLINE WITH RECENT
EC/GEM IDEA. MAIN EFFECT FOR THIS FORECAST WAS TO WARM TEMPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND FOCUS HIGHEST TSRA POPS IN THE TUESDAY
PERIOD ACCOMPANYING THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WITH OCCLUDING SYSTEM
TO THE NORTH. HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST WITH POTENTIAL OF SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH INTERACTING WITH
LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL BAROCLINICITY.

COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THU/FRI WITH UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE
PLACEMENT SUPPORTING ACTIVE SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE
PATTERN/POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
PERIODIC RAIN SHOWER CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE AREA. WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN LIMITED BY
MORNING PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THOUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN ISOLATED THROUGH THE EVENING.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT EITHER KSBN
OR KFWA BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AND TIMING IS TOO UNCERTAIN
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JT/AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...AGD

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
427 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-100830-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
427 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014 /327 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-100830-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
427 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE... BUT COULD CAUSE GALE FORCE GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

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