Small Craft Advisory 15, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
816 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDY SKIES THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY LATE AND MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BE OUT OF
THE WEST NORTHWEST SATURDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S WHILE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH AND LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT REMAINED SOUTH OF THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER THE WARM SECTOR DID MANAGE TO NUDGE INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE TEMPERATURES ROSE TO AROUND
60 DEGREES. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WERE RELATIVELY MEAGER TODAY...AS A LARGE MCS TRACKED SOUTH OF THE
REGION THIS MORNING CUTTING OFF MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR AREA.
HOWEVER THE MORNINGS WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS HAS BEEN FOLLOWED UP BY
COLD AIR ADVECTION CREATING MUCH STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS UP TO NEARLY 40KT HAVE MIXED DOWN SO FAR. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
TO REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WHETHER OR NOT A CONTINUATION WILL BE NEEDED.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND
EARLY TONIGHT AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION CAUSING
LOW TEMPERATURES SLIP JUST BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MORE PLEASANT YET STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO
TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
CONTINUED TO FAVOR COOLER GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS GIVEN
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TRENDING
WARMER/NEAR NORMAL PER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WEAK WAA.

WEST COAST LONG WAVE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH
TO DIG INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY AND EASTERN US BY TUESDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN AND COOLER (BELOW NORMAL) TEMPS.
AN EMBEDDED SOUTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY, WORKING INTO CALIFORNIA AS
OF THIS WRITING, HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MODELED TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. EXCELLENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
PER SOUTHERLY EJECTION WITH 500MB WAVE TAKING ON A NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT (POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF) WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 130 KT
UPPER JET. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING
SFC LOW TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH KY-SOUTHEAST IN-CENTRAL OH MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS TRACK WOULD PLACE THE IWX CWA IN STRONG MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION/FGEN AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THIS TIME WITH
HIGH POPS WARRANTED. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A COLD
RAIN...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A LATE MIX WITH SNOW IN THE EAST
BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A
WIDESPREAD 0.50-1.00" OF RAIN...HEAVIEST ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE RENEWED RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND DRIER IN CHILLY NW
FLOW AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS EDGES EAST THROUGH THE REGION. COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW) MAINLY IN THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDOW AS FRACTURED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPS THROUGH.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE REBOUND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A NICE WARM UP IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY LOW CHC POPS
WARRANTED FOR SHOWERS ALONG THIS FRONT GIVEN TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
LACKING MOISTURE RETURN ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS/PV
ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER THE LAKES REGION WITH
SURFACE OBS INDICATING MAINLY MVFR AND LOW END VFR CIGS. EXPECT
THESE CIGS TO HOLD MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL DRIER AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE WORK IN LATE. COULD SEE CIGS HOLD ON A BIT LONGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING BUT STAYED OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW. ONCE CLOUDS CLEAR
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY.
MIXING DURING THE DAY WILL LEAD TO SFC WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE BUT QUICKLY DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
940 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-051345-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
940 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014 /840 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY RIVERS IN THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG MANY RIVERS IN THE AREA.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE MONDAY WHICH COULD RESULT IN RENEWED
RIVER LEVELS RISES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING OR HEAVY RAINFALL OBSERVED WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-051345-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
940 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SATURDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX