River Flood Warning 65, NWS Northern Indiana

869 
WGUS83 KIWX 081403
FLSIWX
 
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 
1003 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  EEL RIVER AT NORTH MANCHESTER AFFECTING CASS...KOSCIUSKO...MIAMI...
  WABASH AND WHITLEY COUNTIES
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS HIGH WATER EVENT.

INC017-085-103-169-183-081433-
/O.CAN.KIWX.FL.W.0065.000000T0000Z-140410T0112Z/
/NMCI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1003 AM EDT TUE APR 8 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE EEL RIVER AT NORTH MANCHESTER
* AT 9 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.5 FEET
* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET.

&&

LAT...LON 4076 8635 4097 8592 4102 8577 4099 8577
      4087 8599 4072 8631             

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
921 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN APR 6 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

CONTINUED TREND OF SLOWING ONSET OF HIGHER POPS/WIDESPREAD RAIN
TODAY GIVEN VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS BELOW 10 KFT (SEE 12Z
DTX/ILN RAOBS). EXPECT BULK OF MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT IN ADVANCE OF
POTENT MID MS VALLEY SHORTWAVE TO GO TO SATURATION THIS MORNING...
WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES/A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ANTICIPATED.
RAIN STILL ON TRACK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON IN BURGEONING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

WET START TO THE WEEK STILL IN STORE TODAY. HOWEVER...RADAR/MODEL
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A BIT OF A SLOWER ONSET OF THE PRECIP. ONGOING
STG-SVR STORMS ALONG THE GULF STATES WILL KEEP DEEPEST MSTR
TRAPPED THERE. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MSTR BEING SEEN FROM OKLAHOMA
TO WCNTRL ILLINOIS. THIS WILL FILL IN AS LLJ RAMPS UP AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES TODAY. DRY NE FLOW WILL INITIALLY WIN
THE FIGHT MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER JUST A HAIR LONGER...BUT STILL A
RAPID ONSET OF PRECIP IN THE 15 TO 18Z TIME FRAME. ONLY CHANGES
MADE WAS TO SLOW ONSET A BIT IN THE 12 TO 15Z RANGE. SOME CONCERNS
OF VERY TIGHT CUT OFF IN PRECIP SHIELD WITH FAR NW AREAS REMAINING
DRY OR ONLY SEEING TRACE AMOUNTS BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN PERIOD
OF CAT POPS. IF CLOUD SHIELD ISN'T AS DENSE IN THESE AREAS...TEMPS
COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL DEFER
TO DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR TRENDS. BEST CHANCES AND HIGHEST QPF STILL
LIE IN SE HALF TO 2/3RDS WHERE ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL. RIVER LEVELS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. AS A RESULT WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HYDRO HEADLINES AS RIVERS HANDLED ALREADY BY ONGOING
FLOOD WARNINGS. GIVEN PROXIMITY OF LOW...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A STORM IN FAR SE AREAS. NO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS
TIME.

STEADY PRECIP WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT LIFT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL STILL LEAVE A LINGERING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLOUD COVER AND COLDEST
AIR TO THE WEST WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

UPR LEVEL TROF MOVG EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUE SHOULD TRIGGER SCT
SHOWERS AS UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME WK
INSTABILITY. N-NW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL STABILIZE AREAS NEAR THE LAKE
WITH HIGHER CHC OF SHOWERS S-SE PORTION OF CWA. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
BIT BLO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M50S... EXCEPT COOLER NEAR THE
LAKE. UPR TROF EXPECTED TO PROGRESS TO NEW ENGLAND BY WED WITH
RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PROVIDING FAIR WX IN OUR AREA WITH TEMPS
REMAINING A BIT BLO NORMAL.

LOW PRESSURE MOVG EAST IN ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SRN CANADA WILL PROVIDE
STRONG WAA ACROSS OUR AREA WED NGT-THU AS TRAILING CDFNT APPROACHES
RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE L-M40S AND HIGHS IN
THE M60S. SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA THU AFTN-NGT. ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PERSIST LATE THIS
WEEK CAUSING FRONT TO STALL OUT ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE FRI AS A
WK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR AREA.

FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED SAT-SUN
AS A SHRTWV TOPS WEST COAST RIDGE AND MOVES SE INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
SLOW MOVG STRONG CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DIGGING UPR TROF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA BY MONDAY MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY
SHOWERS. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER AS A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SE FROM NW CANADA. WHILE FAIRLY CONFIDENT
OF DRY/MILD CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY... SGFNT FROPA TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS YIELDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY FOR SUNDAYS TEMPS/WX.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

ONLY CHANGES AT THIS POINT TO 12Z TAFS IS TO PUSH BACK ONSET A
HOUR OR 2 MORE. LOTS OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME YET AND MEASURABLE
RAINFALL STILL EWLL S OF THE AREA ACROSS S IL/IN. MID LEVEL MSTR
BEGINNING TO STREAM IN WITH RETURNS SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR. THESE
WILL AMOUNTS LITTLE IF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. MAIN RAINFALL
FOR BOTH SITES WILL STILL BE CLOSER TO THE 18 TO 00Z WINDOW.
MODELS SPLIT OF SOUTH BEND GETTING ANY RAIN...SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD
WITH TEMP GROUP DURING MOST FAVORABLE PERIOD. FLGT CONDITIONS WILL
DROP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT EBFORE
SOME IMPROVEMENT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...FISHER

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
519 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-080930-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
519 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014 /419 AM CDT MON APR 7 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER INCH
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... TO AROUND
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH EAST OF A MARION TO HILLSDALE LINE. THIS
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PROLONG HIGH WATER LEVELS ON AREA RIVERS AND
MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED RENEWED MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG SOME RIVERS IN
THE AREA MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-080930-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
519 AM EDT MON APR 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX