Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
621 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY TO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND PROVIDING COOL AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A VERY CHILLY AIRMASS WAS OVER THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERNIGHT RAINFALL ACCENTUATING THE
THERMAL BOUNDARY THROUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. INITIAL CONVECTION WAS
FIRING MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY WHERE 850 MB THETA E
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS MAXIMIZED AND ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE 850
MB THETA E GRADIENT INTO NRN IL. A LARGE MESO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS
MOVING EAST ACROSS NE MO. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND MOVE ABOUT DUE EAST ALONG THE SFC THETA E BOUNDARY AND
SHOULD DISRUPT THE MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND KEEPING THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO...WITH A SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL INVERSION...ALL
STORMS TODAY SHOULD BE ELEVATED...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE AREA WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
EARLY THIS EVENING...LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IF THE FRONT IS ABLE TO MAKE IF INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED AND POSSIBLY
BECOME SEVERE. OTHERWISE...GRADIENT WINDS FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...WITH A GOOD
CHANCE THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

DEEP LOW MOVG NE ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS FRI NGT WILL RESULT IN CONTD
WINDY CONDITIONS WITH STRONG CAA ACROSS OUR AREA AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE PSBLY CAUSING SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. CONTD TO LEAN TOWARD
HIGHER END OF TEMP GUIDANCE GIVEN MIXING PERSISTING OVERNIGHT. BRISK
WINDS SHOULD CONT SATURDAY EVEN AS GRADIENT DECREASES AS SUNSHINE
AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE GOOD MIXING. WINDS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD BY THEN. TOUGH CALL ON HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES... GOOD MIXING... BUT FLOW OFF THE LAKE... LEANED TOWARD
COLDER END OF GUIDANCE NW AND WARMER END SOUTH WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE U30S NEAR THE LAKE TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA SAT NGT PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO U20S/L30S.

RETREATING HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS TO THE GRTLKS MONDAY AND PHASE WITH UPR LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
RESULTING IN LONGWAVE TROF OVER ERN CONUS/CANADA BY TUE. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN 24HRS AGO ON TRACK OF MONDAY'S
SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SUPPORTING LIKELY POPS FOR ALL BUT FAR
NW PORTION OF CWA. FARTHER LEFT ECMWF SFC LOW TRACK SUPPORTS GOING
FCST OF ALL RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM... THOUGH SHOULD BE CLOSE AND SOME
SNOW NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY IF LOW TAKES
FARTHER SE TRACK PER GFS/GEM THROUGH OHIO INSTEAD OF INDIANA. WITH
DEEP UPR TROF OVER THE AREA TUE-WED TEMPS SHOULD BE BLO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA MOVG ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING.
BULK OF TSRA SHOULD REMAIN JUST S-SW OF THE TERMINALS SO HAVE JUST
INCLUDED VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THIS MORNING. FLIGHT CONDITIONS HAD
LOWERED TO MVFR AT BOTH TERMINALS AND EXPECT GRADUAL LOWERING
TREND TO CONT AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH
IFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANT BY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND SCT TSRA IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A CDFNT SWEEPS
EAST INTO INDIANA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
511 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-040915-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
511 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014 /411 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TODAY AND TONIGHT WHICH COULD RESULT IN FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 24.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING. THE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-040915-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
511 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1201 PM EDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S HUNTINGTON          40.83N  85.50W
04/03/2014  M2.09 INCH       HUNTINGTON         IN   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT

&&

KG