Special Weather Statement, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
653 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT COLLIDES WITH
WARM UNSTABLE AIR. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER OUT...MUCH COOLER AIR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS IS SEVERE POTENTIAL.

SPC NOW HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A MODERATE RISK FOR DAY
1. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS FRONT ADVECTS WARM
AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S...CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.
MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH LI/S IN THE -8
TO -12C RANGE FROM SUN 00Z-06Z. MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE BEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY BETWEEN THAT SUN 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME
WITH SIGNIFICANT LOWER AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND STRONG Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS PER THE NAM. AS A
RESULT...HIGHLIGHTED THIS PERIOD IN THE FORECAST WITH DEFINITE
POPS AND SEVERE MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY EVENING.

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND COMBINE WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES AT THE SURFACE TO
CREATE ANOTHER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA WHICH WILL BE UNDER
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY AS BEST LIFT FROM UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
IN THE MON 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME ONCE AGAIN AS A 90 PLUS 300 MB JET
ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LOW.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END AFTER MON
06Z WITH LOSS OF DYNAMICS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW...BUT NO ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ONCE
AGAIN...ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE
70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

MODELS SOLIDLY ON THE SIDE OF ANOTHER EXTENDED COOL PERIOD MUCH OF
THIS WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. MAY SEE TEMPS GRADUALLY
WARM DURING THE PERIOD BUT WILL STILL BE UNLIKELY TO MAKE NORMALS
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...AND MAY NOT MAKE 80 IN INDIANAPOLIS SEVERAL
DAYS.

WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA
MAY BRING SOME LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA. SAW LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY TO ENHANCE UPON BLENDED INITIALIZATION HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 261200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN INDIANA THAT
COULD IMPACT KLAF AND KIND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND COULD
SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY WITH THESE. KHUF AND KBMG COULD BE
IMPACTED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT ARE STILL DEVELOPING SO
MAY INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF VCTS THERE AS WELL THIS MORNING. AFTER
THAT VFR UNTIL NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. BIGGER IMPACT
EXPECTED WITH THESE. INCLUDED A VCTS STARTING AT THE EARLIER END
OF THE POSSIBLE ARRIVAL TIME. INCLUDED EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION
FOR SEVERAL HOUR DURING THE PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS. NORMALLY WOULD NOT INCLUDE SUCH A LONG PERIOD OF
THUNDER BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT/S STORMS TO BE SEVERE
AND HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THUNDER WITH
THIS ISSUANCE. WILL LIKELY ADD SOME BIGGER WIND GUSTS AND TRY TO
PIN DOWN TIMING BETTER WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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