Areal Flood Warning 64, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WHILE A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE
AREA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SAG THROUGH
NORTHWEST INDIANA. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
PEAK HEATING APPROACHES...BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY WORK AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THIS WEAK FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
CENTRAL ZONES THIS EVENING...BEFORE WASHING OUT. CONVECTION MAY TEND
TO DIMINISH AFTER DARK...BUT WITH DECENT 850MB FLOW OVER THE
AREA...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER DARK AS WELL. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TONIGHT ALL AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH DEEP SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS ON TUESDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

MOST OF THE MODEL DATA INDICATE AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX LOOKS TO REACH
THE WESTERN ZONES AROUND SUNRISE ON TUESDAY...PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST BY THE MIDDAY HOURS. THIS COMPLEX WILL BE AIDED BY A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SO THINK THIS COMPLEX
HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR AWHILE. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS STARTING AT SUNRISE TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE
POPS BY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COMPLEX PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES STRONGER BY THE MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY...SO POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE COMPLEX EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAY STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES TUESDAY EVENING...SO WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS
GOING THERE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY MAY BE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE DOWN THE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS A CATEGORY DURING THOSE PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL END THE WORK WEEK ON A DRY NOTE. THEN THE
PATTERN WILL RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED ONE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS RETURN
FLOW OF WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS
AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES MOVING ALONG A
BOUNDARY WILL MEAN RENEWED AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD APPROACH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 071800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

ANOTHER WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTERACT WITH AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND RESULT IN RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HRRR IS DEPICTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY AROUND AND SOUTH OF I-70. TRIED TO SHOW THIS WITH EITHER -TS
OR VCTS GROUPS IN TAFS. THEN THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY
AFTER SUNSET BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. TIMING FOR THUNDERSTORMS WAS PUSHED BACK BASED ON LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL CONSENSUS. HAVE TSTMS INTRODUCED AT KLAF AROUND
10Z AND START THUNDER AT KHUF/KIND AT 12Z AND AND HOUR OR TWO
LATER TO GET TO KBMG. THERE IS STILL PLENTY UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO TSTM COVERAGE BUT THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS...SOME QUITE HEAVY. FOR NOW ONLY INDICATED MFVR IN
TAFS EARLY TUESDAY BUT THIS FLIGHT CATEGORY COULD VERY WELL NEED
TO BE LOWERED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES/UPDATES.

MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.

GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS TODAY AND AFTER 15Z TUESDAY. TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO
DROP TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
601 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-081015-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
601 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

HAZARDS: LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

TIMING: STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT THE HIGHEST
CHANCES ARE LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION: AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND BE CAPABLE OF
HEAVY RAIN. THERE COULD BE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.

DISCUSSION: A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTERACT WITH A WARM...MOST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE BRINGING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

NIELD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
117 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

INZ044-071745-
PARKE-
117 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PARKE COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM
EDT...

AT 113 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKVILLE...OR 22 MILES NORTH OF TERRE
HAUTE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  ROCKVILLE...
  JUDSON...
  CECIL HARDEN LAKE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3982 8736 3987 8701 3969 8701 3967 8701
      3971 8737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1717Z 268DEG 21KT 3977 8725

SMF