Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
335 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 236 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday

Northwesterly flow aloft over and upstream of Illinois as a large
scale high pressure ridge resides over the rockies and a large
scale trough resides over the eastern U.S. just east of Illinois.
Disturbances embedded in the northwesterly flow upstream of
Illinois and a cold front currently near the IL/WI border will be
the main features bringing precipitation/thunderstorms to central
IL through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

Frontal boundary to the north expected to move into central IL
overnight and to southeast IL late Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity
currently over southern WI will spread into central IL as this
occurs, however daytime heating will have ended bringing limiting
surface-based instability. Mid-upper level instability should
still be enough for some elevated convection however. As the front
moves to Southeast IL Tuesday afternoon, thunderstorm activity
should shift to that region. A bit of a break is likely Tuesday
evening, then another disturbance brings stronger mid-level flow
over the region late Tuesday night along with precipitable water
increasing to around 2 inches interacting with the frontal zone
stalled over the region. This should bring another good chance for
showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday, some with
potentially heavy rainfall. Instability looks to be minimal so
severe thunderstorm potential remains minimal, primarily over
west-central IL.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

The frontal boundary is expected to linger for a few
days, eventually pushing southward late in the week. As a
result, chance POPs remain in the forecast through
Friday, gradually moving off to the south. A basically dry
forecast is in store for the weekend with the frontal boundary
moving to the south however models still indicate disturbances
moving across the top of the ridge to the west could affect
portions of western Illinois, and have kept slight chances in for
this possibility.

Onton

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 4 2014

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
over central IL late this afternoon into mid evening especially
northern TAF sites of PIA and BMI. This due to a short wave over
IA moving se across central and northern IL into this evening with
and moving into upper level trof over OH/TN river valleys by Tue
morning. In addition, a frontal boundary drapped over southern WI
into northern IA will drop southward into northern IL later this
afternoon and to near PIA and BMI by Tue morning. Heating of more
unstable airmass over central IL to develop some convection later
this afternoon and into mid evening with best chances from I-74
north. Isolated convection to develop again Tue afternoon over
central IL after 18Z/1 pm. Winds stay less than 10 kts next 24
hours again. SSW winds of 5-9 kts this afternoon to diminish light
SSE after sunset. Light fog or haze possible between 06Z-14Z and
carried vsbys of 6 miles.

07

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
249 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>053-051100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-
MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
249 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SETTLES
SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT OCCUR COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE THE THREAT GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING. IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY FROM I-74 SOUTH AS A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD
PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ054>057-061-051100-
COLES-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-SHELBY-
249 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE BETTER
THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON
WEDNESDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-051100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
249 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM I-70 NORTH.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
OCCUR COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
539 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             5 NE VICTORIA           41.08N 90.03W
08/04/2014  M1.00 INCH       KNOX               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

25

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
607 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

ILZ036-042345-
FULTON-
607 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM CDT...

AT 603 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF IPAVA...OR 11 MILES WEST OF
LEWISTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CUBA...
  MARIETTA...
  BERNADOTTE...
  SMITHFIELD...

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4055 9020 4040 9017 4035 9043 4050 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 253DEG 9KT 4043 9034

GEELHART