Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
247 PM CDT Fri May 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 245 PM CDT Fri May 9 2014

Cold front currently pushing through the CWA, roughly just east of
I-55 at 2 pm. Dew points have dropped off considerably to around
50 degrees west of it, with upper 50s/lower 60s east.
Thunderstorms have begun to fire as expected ahead of it, in air
where CAPE's are around 1500 J/kg with no cap. Most severe
storms so far have been in deep southern Illinois.

The primary forecast concern is with the daily threat of strong to
severe thunderstorms through at least Monday.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday:

Focus for convection this evening will be shifting southward, with
the highest PoP's in the southeast CWA through mid evening. Mostly
clear weather expected elsewhere as weak high pressure settles
into central Illinois. Nice temperature gradient on tap as lows
range from the upper 40s northwest to around 60 southeast.

Daytime hours on Saturday are the only completely dry period in
our forecast through the middle of next week. Rain chances
increase again Saturday night as an upper low currently off the
Washington coast digs southward across the western CONUS tonight
and swings through the Rockies. A surface low will develop over
western Kansas this weekend with a warm front arcing northeast
into northern Illinois. Latest ECMWF and GEM have a more organized
MCS moving through the forecast area Saturday night, with the GFS
and NAM a bit more disorganized. Best severe threat will be out
across Missouri with the storms moving into a less unstable
environment Saturday night, but better instability will develop
again Sunday with temperatures well in the 80s and dew points in
the mid 60s. Most of the forecast area is in the slight risk for
severe weather Sunday afternoon/evening except south of I-70.
Monday is a bit less clear for severe weather, but with the
trailing cold front still to our west, it is something we still
need to watch.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday:

Timing of the cold front passage on Tuesday is starting to come
into better agreement with the GFS and ECMWF, although the GEM is
a few hours slower. Highest PoP's on Tuesday will be east of I-57
which will be ahead of the front most of the day.

Broad and deep upper trough to slowly work its way eastward across
the central U.S. through mid week. The GFS remains a bit more
progressive, while the ECMWF is slower and sends a decent slug of
precipitation northeast ahead of the trough during the middle of
the week, then sending a strengthening storm system up the
southeast coast. With the colder air aloft, scattered diurnal
showers are on tap.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Fri May 9 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. A
cold front currently just east of I-55 will push slowly eastward
this afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms developing along and
ahead of it. 1730z visible satellite imagery shows a fine line of
enhanced CU well ahead of the front that could eventually develop
into a broken line of convection over the next hour or two. This
line is already east of all terminals except KCMI, so have opted to
leave thunder mention out of the forecast at all sites at this
time. Better focus for widespread convection will remain well
south toward the I-70 corridor. Diurnal cloud cover will dissipate
by this evening, with mostly clear skies expected overnight into
Saturday morning. Winds will initially be gusty from the W/SW this
afternoon, then will diminish to less than 10kt tonight.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>055-101100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-
MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-
SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCASIONALLY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ056-057-061>063-066>068-071>073-101100-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-
LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A PARIS TO TAYLORVILLE LINE...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCASIONALLY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY...WHEN A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH 7 PM.

BARNES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
457 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

ILZ045-046-055-092245-
CHAMPAIGN-DOUGLAS-VERMILION-
457 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...SOUTHERN
CHAMPAIGN AND SOUTHWESTERN VERMILION COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 452 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ATWOOD...OR 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF TUSCOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PESOTUM...
  TOLONO...
  VILLA GROVE...
  PHILO...
  SIDNEY...
  BROADLANDS...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...SADORUS AND LONGVIEW.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3996 8783 3976 8839 3988 8847 3993 8846
      4014 8797
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 244DEG 36KT 3988 8832

BAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
511 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

ILZ044-045-054-055-092300-
CHAMPAIGN-DOUGLAS-MOULTRIE-PIATT-
511 PM CDT FRI MAY 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MOULTRIE...
NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...SOUTHERN PIATT AND SOUTHWESTERN CHAMPAIGN
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 506 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LOVINGTON...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF SULLIVAN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ATWOOD...
  PESOTUM...
  TOLONO...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...GARRETT AND SADORUS.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3966 8866 3979 8876 3979 8875 3983 8875
      4003 8823 3982 8823
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 240DEG 35KT 3979 8860

BAK

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