Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
830 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 825 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Large complex of storms that moved through the area this morning has
has effectively slowed the northward progression of the warm front
with the severe threat now shifting further south, mainly south of
I-72. The deepening area of low pressure was located over north
central Missouri and will track into southeast Iowa late tonight
bringing the warm front further north, but with the atmosphere
worked over from the morning complex of storms, instability was
rather weak. Greater Effective Storm Relative Helicity was well
to our south associated with the storms moving across east central
Missouri and south. The better threat for more concentrated area
of showers and storms will be across southeast Illinois where they
can not stand too much more rainfall. Further north, a band of
showers and isolated storms will move over central through east
central Illinois later this evening before the cold front shifts
off to our east by Friday morning. After that, strong west winds
and cooler weather will prevail on Friday.

Have already sent out an updated forecast based on the early evening
trends but will send out another update by 900 pm to address the
latest thinking on cold frontal passage and temperature trends for
the rest of the night.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 615 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Main forecast concern will be with coverage of convection tonight
and affect on cigs as well as with how far north the warm front
tracks this evening. The warm front was still located south of the
TAF sites and with the morning convection really having a drastic
affect on its northward movement early this evening. Along and
to the south, there were mainly VFR cigs, while to its north MVFR
and LIFR cigs and vsbys were reported. The low is forecast to
shift northeast into southeast Iowa by midnight with the warm
front edging ever so slowly north, passing north of SPI, DEC and
CMI but confidence low it will get to BMI or PIA. Expect the low
cigs and vsbys north for a few hours this evening with the cigs
improving south of the boundary for SPI, DEC and CMI but only
temporary with more MVFR cigs expected behind the cold front which
is expected to push east of our TAF sites by 10z. Winds will be
east in areas north of the warm front, and then become southeast
to south to the south of the boundary which will influence SPI,
DEC and CMI. Look for strong and gusty west winds on Friday with
wind speeds increasing to 15 to 25 kts with gusts around 30 kts
at times.

Smith
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 252 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014
Quasi stationary boundary tempered somewhat by lack of WAA this
afternoon as showers lingered through the morning hours and clouds
remained in place. More active convection confined to the south
so far. Convection is anticipated to lift through the FA this
evening before the low progresses across the Midwest, dragging a
cold front with it and another round of severe weather potential.
Beyond today...temperatures remain cooler behind the cold front
through the weekend as high pressure remains in control. Another
system moves up the Ohio River Valley early Monday as another deep
trof digs in over the CONUS. The beginning of the next work week
will likely be wet and gray...with fairer weather just behind the
system for mid week. Models really in pretty solid agreement
across the board. The difficulties within the forecast are the
smaller scale details for storm initiation this afternoon.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through tomorrow...
Cold pool associated with this mornings MCS enhanced the thermal
gradient along the boundary...but the mass of convection that
developed to the southwest also modified the airmass in the warm
sector. Between the persistent cloud cover and the lack of thermal
gradient...threat for activity along the warm front lifting into
the FA is waning. Surface convergence still in place, though the
instability is taking a hit. Too much activity earlier. Plenty of
fuel for a round of severe potential with the sfc low lifting and
passing to the NW and dragging a cold front through the region.
Thunderstorms through the evening spreading across and through
Illinois by the early morning hours. Tomorrow significantly cooler
with 40s and 50s... 10-15 degrees below normals for this time of
year. Tightening pressure gradient at the surface will result in
borderline wind advisory criteria tomorrow with sustained winds
close to 30-35 mph in the NErn CWA...gusting in excess of 40 mph.
With severe threat and ongoing Flood Watch in place, will defer
advisory to the mid shift to watch the guidance a little more
closely.

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...
High pressure takes control this weekend...with light winds and
mostly sunny on Saturday at the very least. Sunday slightly warmer
than Saturday. Another system digging in and developing in the SW
before moving up into the Midwest bringing the next chance for
precip early Monday morning to start the work week. Tuesday should
see diminishing showers early...and improving steadily through the
day for a return to more mild weather by midweek.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Friday FOR ILZ042>057-061>063-066>068-
071>073.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
339 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ILZ042>046-048-051>057-061>063-041200-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
LOGAN-MACON-MENARD-MOULTRIE-PIATT-SANGAMON-SHELBY-VERMILION-
339 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF I-72 LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ARE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE AREA...ON TOP OF THE 1 TO
2 INCHES THAT OCCURRED SINCE YESTERDAY. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL
CAUSE FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

EXPECT STRONG WEST WINDS TO GUST BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH ON FRIDAY.
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT...MAINLY LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ILZ027>031-037-038-041200-
KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
339 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF I-72 DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-74.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 35 TO 40 MPH ON FRIDAY. NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING.

ILZ036-040-041-041200-
FULTON-MASON-SCHUYLER-
339 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OF I-72 DURING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY EVENING. THEN A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-74.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HAVANA TO
BEARDSTOWN AND AREAS SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL GUST 35 TO 40 MPH ON FRIDAY. NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ILZ047-049-050-041200-
CASS-MORGAN-SCOTT-
339 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF I-72 DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THEN A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A
FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO THE AREA...ON TOP OF THE 1 TO
2 INCHES THAT OCCURRED SINCE YESTERDAY. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL
CAUSE FLOODING ON SOME AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL GUST 35 TO 40 MPH ON FRIDAY. NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ILZ066>068-071>073-041200-
CLAY-CRAWFORD-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
339 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF I-72 DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
THEN SWEEP EASTWARD AND BRING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND TORNADOES SOME WHICH COULD BE STRONG ESPECIALLY FROM HIGHWAY
50 SOUTH.

HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN TO THE AREA...ON TOP OF THE 2 TO 3 INCHES THAT
OCCURRED SINCE YESTERDAY. THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE FLOODING
ON SOME AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL GUST 30 TO 40 MPH ON FRIDAY. NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
622 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E BLOOMINGTON         40.48N 88.90W
04/03/2014  M1.30 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   AWOS

            MEASURED 1.30 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY AT THE BLOOMINGTON
            AIRPORT

&&

JPARR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
625 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 E LINCOLN             40.15N 89.35W
04/03/2014  M1.25 INCH       LOGAN              IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MEASURED 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY AT NWS OFFICE ALONG
            HIGHWAY 10 ON EAST SIDE OF LINCOLN

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SW PEORIA             40.71N 89.65W
04/03/2014  M2.01 INCH       PEORIA             IL   ASOS

            MEASURED 2.01 INCHES OF RAIN AT THE PEORIA AIRPORT TODAY

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SPRINGFIELD             39.78N 89.64W
04/03/2014  M1.07 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   ASOS

            MEASURED 1.07 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY AT CAPITOL AIRPORT IN
            SPRINGFIELD

0500 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LAWRENCEVILLE           38.73N 87.69W
04/03/2014  M1.08 INCH       LAWRENCE           IL   ASOS

            MEASURED 1.08 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY AT LAWRENCEVILLE
            AIRPORT

&&

JPARR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
645 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WATSON                  39.03N 88.57W
04/03/2014  M3.37 INCH       EFFINGHAM          IL   MESONET

            MEASURED 3.37 INCHES OF RAIN IN WATSON SINCE WEDNESDAY
            MORNING.

&&

JPARR

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