Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Lincoln, IL

928 
WWUS53 KILX 052218
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
518 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

ILC017-125-129-052245-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-140905T2245Z/
MASON IL-MENARD IL-CASS IL-
518 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
CASS...MENARD AND SOUTHERN MASON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 512 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CHANDLERVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TALLULA...PETERSBURG...GREENVIEW...ATHENS...OAKFORD...ATTERBERRY...
LINCOLNS NEW SALEM...SWEETWATER AND FANCY PRAIRIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4012 9029 4016 8960 4009 8960 4009 8958
      3998 8958 3998 8970 3992 8970 3991 8972
      3992 8975 3991 8977 3991 9020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 268DEG 36KT 4001 8999

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BAK

169 
WWUS53 KILX 052228
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
528 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

ILC017-125-129-052245-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-140905T2245Z/
MASON IL-MENARD IL-CASS IL-
528 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
CASS...MENARD AND SOUTHEASTERN MASON COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 524 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PETERSBURG...
AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREENVIEW...ATHENS...SWEETWATER AND FANCY PRAIRIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 4013 9005 4016 8960 4009 8960 4009 8958
      3999 8958 3998 8959 3998 8970 3992 8970
      3991 8971 3992 8975 3991 8977 3991 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 269DEG 43KT 4001 8978

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

BAK

164 
WWUS53 KILX 052243
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
543 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

ILC017-125-129-052253-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-140905T2245Z/
MASON IL-MENARD IL-CASS IL-
543 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CASS...MENARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN MASON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM.

IN ADDITION...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM.

LAT...LON 4013 9005 4016 8960 4009 8960 4009 8958
      3999 8958 3998 8959 3998 8970 3992 8970
      3991 8971 3992 8975 3991 8977 3991 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 269DEG 43KT 4001 8955

$$

BAK

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
300 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

Cold front moving into the Illinois River Valley this afternoon with
plenty of warm and moist air ahead of it.  CAPEs ahead of the
boundary are in excess of 4000 J/kg, but shear is minimal and the cu
field has not yet responded to a lot of the heat of the day.  Most
of the activity associated with the boundary is actually well behind
it, co-located with the best shear, but little in the way of CAPE.
The activity that initiated along boundary just to the north is
actually far more diurnally supported as it races out ahead of it.
Convection will have plenty of PW to work with in the column should
any storms develop, resulting in high precip and a threat for some
precip loading/small microbursts and associated damaging winds.  So
far, remaining in the Slight Risk, but just outside a watch.
Updating the pops to increase invof the boundary through sunset,
then spreading out a bit more after sundown as the boundary moves
through the region overnight.  Temperatures starting to drop at GBG,
so the temp curve tonight will vary a bit from diurnal and the lows
will vary somewhat nw of the Illinois River Valley should any clear
pockets develop.  But llvl moisture hanging around quite a bit with
the precip behind the front should prevent too much of a drop.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

The cold front will be clear of the forecast area by Saturday
morning. This should take most of the precipitation risk with it.
However, have maintained some morning showers south of I-70, as much
of the precipitation with this front will be on the cool side of the
front with the better upper forcing. Aside from the slight morning
risk of rainfall in our southeast counties, the balance of the
weekend into early next week will offer quiet and cooler than normal
weather as Canadian high pressure builds into the area.

From Tuesday through the end of the period the relatively zonal flow
across the lower 48 will trend increasingly cyclonic as troffing
develops. Model agreement of the disturbances in this developing
trof is not that great as far as specifics. However, there is
general agreement that Tuesday-Thursday will feature periodic
showers/storms and remain cooler than normal. It also appears that a
much cooler area of high pressure will help dry things out by
Friday, with high temperatures by then possibly not making it out of
the 60s for at least a day or two.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014
Only some small timing adjustments to the timing of the frontal
boundary this afternoon as the cold front develops some showers
and thunderstorms along the boundary. Some minor adjustments will
likely be necessary as the front is slow to develop showers,
though there is more than enough moisture in the boundary layer.
Chance that the storms will initialize somewhere between the
Illinois River Valley and a line btwn BMI and SPI... so PIA may
end up behind the best chances for TS. That being said, showers
well to the west still getting enough convection to have some
thunder, so it will remain a VCTS mention for now. Time Heights
keeping llvl moisture in place through the overnight and not
clearing quickly, so low cigs...dropping to MVFR in the north for
now...but may need to expand that to the southern terminals should
enough rainfall accumulate.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...HJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1122 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-061630-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
1122 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTER A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INVADES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...IT APPEARS A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE SETTING
UP AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY
REPORTS OF FLOODING OR STRONG WINDS WOULD BE APPRECIATED FROM OUR
SPOTTERS.

ILZ038-042>046-048>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-061630-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-MENARD-
MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
1122 AM CDT FRI SEP 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE STORMS THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AFTER A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INVADES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND...IT APPEARS A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD WILL BE SETTING
UP AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FROM 4 PM TO 9 PM. ALSO...ANY REPORTS
OF FLOODING OR STRONG WINDS WOULD BE APPRECIATED FROM ANY OF OUR
SPOTTERS.

HJS