Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Lincoln, IL

915 
WWUS53 KILX 262222
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
522 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ILC019-039-113-147-262245-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-140726T2245Z/
MCLEAN IL-PIATT IL-CHAMPAIGN IL-DE WITT IL-
522 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
DE WITT...NORTHERN CHAMPAIGN...NORTHERN PIATT AND SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 518 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FISHER...AND
MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RANTOUL...THOMASBORO...GIFFORD...DEWEY...LUDLOW...FLATVILLE AND
ROYAL.

INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 235 AND 256.

INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 173 AND 182.

INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 153 AND 184.

EVERYONE AT THE CHAMPAIGN COUNTY FAIR ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM AND 
SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. LIGHTNING
KILLS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4014 8796 4009 8872 4029 8881 4041 8801
      4040 8794
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 265DEG 51KT 4030 8836

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

07

640 
WWUS53 KILX 262244
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
544 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ILC019-039-113-147-262254-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-140726T2245Z/
MCLEAN IL-PIATT IL-CHAMPAIGN IL-DE WITT IL-
544 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DE WITT...
NORTHERN CHAMPAIGN...NORTHERN PIATT AND SOUTHEASTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4014 8796 4009 8872 4029 8881 4041 8801
      4040 8794
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 265DEG 51KT 4032 8795

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
157 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 150 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

ILX Local objective analysis as of 18z indicating the cap holding
strong across our northern forecast area where the frontal boundary
has slipped south of early this afternoon. Further south, we have
seen the cap weaken with Mixed Layer Cins down to around 100 along
the I70 corridor with Mixed Layer Capes were up to 3800 j/kg over
far west central IL where temps have climbed into the upper 80s
with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. 18z sounding from ILX and
DVN showing some moisture around 2500-3000 feet with a dry layer
from 850 to 500 mb and the cap holding strong at both locations.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday

Storm coverage tonight the main forecast issue as all models weaken
the cap significantly this evening as the main upper level energy
starts to push into the region accompanied by cooling temperatures
aloft. HRRR and WRF-HOP ensembles were indicating the main convection
would be tracking across northern Missouri and into central to southeast
Illinois late this afternoon and evening, along the differential heating
boundary set up by the lower cloud cover. Further south, nothing but
sunshine and temps in the low to mid 90s, so quite a contrast across
central thru southeast Illinois which many times these storms tend to
propagate through. If the cap is breached there is plenty of CAPE and
Shear to interact with this evening with a fast moving QLCS still looking
more likely at least over our southern half of the forecast this evening.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats but enough
low level shear prevalent, especially near the boundary across our
northern counties, that a tornado could develop with a persistent
rotating updraft. Some of the storms could start to back-build later
this evening as the low level jet starts to back more into a southwest
to west direction increasing the threat for locally heavy rainfall.

Storms should start to edge out of our forecast area Sunday morning
as the front settles to our southeast by afternoon. Will still keep
low chance pops going, especially across the east but some fairly
decent dry air will be advecting in on a gusty west to northwest
wind during the afternoon. Cooler and much less humid air will filter
southeast into our area Monday and Tuesday as an unseasonably deep
trof settles in north of the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday

The deep h5 trof will be the main weather story for much of this
period bringing rather cool temperatures for the first few days of
August, although latest guidance was not quite as cool as previous
runs as we see daytime highs edge back to or just above 80 degrees
starting on Wednesday. Rain chances remain a challenge as models
diverge with respect to timing of individual shortwaves that drop
southeast into the region bringing mainly diurnally driven shower
and thunderstorm chances, especially on Friday and Saturday.

Smith
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1259 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2014

Main concern with forecast is timing of thunderstorms that
potentially could be strong to severe late this afternoon into
mid evening. Leaned on the HRRR model for timing of convection
which appears to have a good handle on convection over MO. Have
22-24Z timing for western TAF sites of PIA and SPI, 23-01Z for DEC
and BMI and 00-02Z for CMI. Kept strong wind gusts of 35-40 kts
with thunderstorms and vsbys 1-3 miles with heavy rains and MVFR
ceilings. Convection currently moving east into central/nw MO.
Frontal boundary over nw IL nw of the IL river could develop
convection sooner this afternoon at PIA so will monitor this.
Otherwise frontal boundary to push se through central IL into this
evening with sw winds of 7-12 kts and few higher gusts turn WSW
this evening and lighten up to 4-7 kts and veern WNW and increase
to 10-15 kts Sunday morning with gusts 15-20 kts after 15Z/10 am.

07
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
312 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-271100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
312 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THROUGH MID EVENING. SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 75 MPH
ARE THE GREATEST THREAT. IN ADDITION LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-74. VERY HEAVY RAINS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS A RISK AS WELL.

HOT AND HUMID TROPICAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES WILL APPROACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS
FOR PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR PHYSICAL ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 8 PM TODAY.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-271100-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
VERMILION-
312 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ILLINOIS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID EVENING. SEVERE WIND
GUSTS OF 60 TO 75 MPH ARE THE GREATEST THREAT. IN ADDITION LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-74.
VERY HEAVY RAINS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS A RISK AS WELL.

HOT AND HUMID TROPICAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
HEAT INDICES OF 95 TO 103 DEGREES WILL APPROACH HAZARDOUS LEVELS
FOR PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR PHYSICAL ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER ON SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS
ESPECIALLY FROM I-57 EAST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM 4 TO 10 PM TODAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
443 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ILZ054>056-061-063-262230-
CLARK-COLES-DOUGLAS-MOULTRIE-SHELBY-
443 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COLES...NORTHERN SHELBY...
NORTHWESTERN CLARK...SOUTHERN MOULTRIE AND SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 439 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SULLIVAN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 50 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ALLENVILLE...
  COOKS MILL...
  MATTOON...
  HUMBOLDT...
  CHARLESTON...
  RARDIN...

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...KIRKSVILLE...COLES...COLES COUNTY
AIRPORT...FAIRGRANGE AND BUSHTON.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 3963 8799 3939 8801 3951 8877 3969 8874
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 277DEG 34KT 3959 8863

07