Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Lincoln, IL

018 
WWUS53 KILX 211902
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
202 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

ILC057-211930-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-140621T1930Z/
FULTON IL-
202 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL FULTON
COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 158 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST 
OF CUBA...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ELLISVILLE.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CANTON...CUBA...ST. DAVID...FIATT...BRYANT...DUNFERMLINE...NORRIS AND
LITTLE AMERICA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 9045 4066 8999 4043 9000 4045 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 265DEG 13KT 4054 9027

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$
GEELHART

113 
WWUS53 KILX 211912
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
212 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

ILC057-211930-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-140621T1930Z/
FULTON IL-
212 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL FULTON
COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

AT 210 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST
OF CUBA...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN MARIETTA
         AT 204 PM.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CANTON...CUBA...ST. DAVID...FIATT...BRYANT...DUNFERMLINE...NORRIS AND
LITTLE AMERICA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4061 9045 4066 8999 4043 9000 4045 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 265DEG 11KT 4054 9030

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$
GEELHART

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 1004 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014

Plenty of sunshine occurring this morning to destabilize the
atmosphere, with CAPE's already over 2000 J/kg across the west
half of the CWA per LAPS and SPC mesoanalysis. Weak boundary
currently seen on surface plot from southwest Wisconsin into
northwest Missouri will move into northwest Illinois around midday
and likely will be the focus for the expected convection by the
1-2 pm time frame. RAP, HRRR and the high-res ARW/NMM models are
in reasonable agreement with a broken line of storms between the
Illinois River and I-55 by 4 pm, with the latest NAM showing a
similar solution. Thinking the southeast CWA will mainly be dry
through late afternoon, and the latest SPC Day1 outlook pulled
back the slight risk out of that area.

Sent some updated zones/grids to reflect the latest precipitation
timing, and to tweak the temperatures based the observed hourly
trends.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014

Beginning to see some of the expected convective development north
of the central Illinois TAF sites at midday, and should be
significantly increasing early this afternoon. Have tried resolve
the broad VCTS mentions at KPIA/KBMI with a TEMPO period for the
more significant convection this afternoon. Will hold off a bit
further south as we wait to see the evolution of the storms, then
will amend to add them in at that point. Currently looks like the
thunder threat will be over by 02-03Z at most sites. Light winds
develop overnight, and with the residual low level moisture
around, some MVFR visibilities are likely for a few hours near
sunrise.

Geelhart

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2014

Surface ridging keeping control on a relatively stagnant air mass
over the region. Showers, thunderstorms, and mesoscale boundaries
controlling much of the dynamics for the last few days...and the
trend will continue for the next few. Significant wave over NE/IA
this morning progged to make its way over the Mississippi River
Valley later this afternoon/evening and bring the next best
chances of rain. However, some of the models weaken the impulse
considerably, keeping the main wave further to the west for Sun
night through Mon night. To say that the models, both high res and
longer range, have been having a hard time resolving the
convective elements in this hot and humid air mass is a drastic
understatement. Forecast is full of pops and it is almost
impossible to carve them down with much accuracy simply because it
is a hot, humid, and unstable summer air mass. Scattered
thunderstorms is more the rule than the exception, particularly in
the afternoon (diurnal influence) and evening (evolution of
convective masses that form elsewhere and propagate through.)

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Hot and humid again today with weak sfc winds and heat indices
into the 90s by late afternoon. GFS and NAM both relentless with
the progression of the convection over NE/IA this morning, pushing
into ILX this afternoon. HRRR and 4km WRF a little more familiar
to recent trends and dissipates the storms as they approach the
Miss River Valley and the influence of the ridge, but re-fire the
outflow later in the afternoon. More recent HRRR delaying the
re-fire until closer to 20z over Mid Miss River...whereas the 4km
WRF igniting on several different boundaries through the
afternoon. Considering the lack of consensus...will go with a
combination of models, and continuity. Chances through the day,
increasing this afternoon and into the evening hours. Tomorrow
even less clear--scattered potential, and details potentially more
accessible after the prev activity from tonight sets up any
outflow boundaries. Both days in the warm and humid air mass and
heat indices into the 90s.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Upper trof/wave pushing through the region on Monday night into
Tuesday bringing signif chance, increasing from Sun night into
Monday night...and a slightly cooler Tuesday through the end of
the week. Still warm, but potentially less humidity as winds
become more westerly on Tuesday, picking up a northerly component
by Wednesday. Forecast trending drier from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Another wave Thursday brings back some pops ahead of
the next big storm system developing over the SW for late next
weekend.

HJS

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1131 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-221100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-
LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-
PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
1131 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEST OF I-55 EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME BETWEEN 2 PM AND 9 PM.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-221100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
1131 AM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING TOWARD
VERY LATE AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-70...AND IN THE EVENING TO THE
SOUTH. WHILE A COUPLE OF THE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS...THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED AGAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 5 PM AND 9 PM.

GEELHART