Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Lincoln, IL

May 11, 2014McLean County, Woodford County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 11, 2014, 6:34 PM CDT for McLean County, Woodford County, Illinois. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 11, 2014, 6:34 PM CDT (23:34 UTC)
Expired: May 11, 2014, 7:15 PM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Lincoln, IL
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties McLean County, IL, Woodford County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 80 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 11, 3:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 12:00Z, 11.6 hours before the alert went out and 75 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1968 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 164 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 148 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

713 
WUUS53 KILX 112334
SVRILX
ILC113-203-120015-
/O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0027.140511T2334Z-140512T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
634 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  EASTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 633 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CARLOCK...
  AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SECOR...HUDSON...EL PASO...GRIDLEY...CHENOA...EVERGREEN LAKE...
  KAPPA...LAKE BLOOMINGTON...PANOLA AND WESTON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 39 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 5 AND 23

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 178 AND 187.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 115 AND 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4092 8892 4076 8892 4076 8859 4076 8858
      4069 8858 4056 8917 4063 8925 4094 8897
      4093 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 238DEG 21KT 4064 8913

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BARNES

1 follow-up statement

273 
WWUS53 KILX 120016
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
716 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

ILC113-203-120024-
/O.EXP.KILX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-140512T0015Z/
MCLEAN IL-WOODFORD IL-
716 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WOODFORD AND NORTH
CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE DEVELOPING FROM NEAR CONGERVILLE
NORTHEASTWARD TO CHENOA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4092 8892 4076 8892 4076 8859 4076 8858
      4069 8858 4056 8917 4063 8925 4094 8897
      4093 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 238DEG 21KT 4076 8887

$$

BARNES

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 11, 2:48 PM CDT, 3 hours 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 11, 2:48 PM CDT, 3 hours 46 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
248 PM CDT Sun May 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 248 PM CDT Sun May 11 2014

Air mass destabilizing quickly across central and southeast
Illinois early this afternoon. 18Z upper air sounding from our
office showing CAPE of around 2600 J/kg with no convective
inhibition, although shear values are not especially impressive.
Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates CAPE's are over 3000 J/kg south
of I-72, as dew points of 70 degrees have made it as far north as
Taylorville. Warm front extends from southern Nebraska along the
Iowa/Missouri border, but becomes more diffuse in northern
Illinois where it is more of a dew point discontinuity.
Thunderstorms have been percolating most of the day across the
Ohio Valley, and a persistent, small MCS is advancing across Iowa.
Some development has recently started as well across northeast
Missouri south of the main MCS. Has been quiet in our area the
last few hours, but latest radar returns are starting to show
thunderstorms developing between Taylorville and St Louis.

The primary forecast concern remains with the severe weather
threat over the next 24 to 36 hours.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday:

Latest runs of the HRRR have been persistent with the Iowa storms
affecting more of the northern third of Illinois, with more
scattered strong/severe storms affecting our area through about
7 pm. Shear parameters don't really improve any in our area, so
thinking that hail/wind threat will be the primary concerns here
with the tornado threat closer to the warm front. After sunset,
capping of the atmosphere will begin in the warm sector. Have
maintained some 30-40% PoP's after midnight northwest of the
Illinois River, and slight chances as far east as I-55, with dry
conditions across the southeast half of the forecast area.

Similar convective parameters expected on Monday, with CAPE's
rising to 2500-3000 J/kg, although shear remains on the low side.
Day2 slight risk basically along and northwest of the Illinois
River, where the shear will be a bit higher as it is closer to the
incoming cold front, and severe weather threat will mainly be mid
afternoon to early evening. With the front slowing down a tad,
will keep any PoP's east of I-57 around 20% during the day, while
likely PoP's around 60% found during the afternoon along/west of
the Illinois River. Have maintained the 60-70% PoP's everywhere
during the night as the front slowly moves through, and over the
eastern CWA on Tuesday with some 80% values south of I-70 Tuesday.
Severe weather threat on Tuesday appears minimal, and would be
near the Indiana border if any did occur.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday:

A broad upper trough will be dominating much of the eastern half
of the nation into the first part of the weekend, with cool
conditions prevailing. The ECMWF has been persistent with a closed
upper low forming by late Thursday over the Great Lakes, then
lifting northward, while the GFS keeps a more progressive trough.
Toward the end of the weekend, the trough will finally start to
break down as an upper low digs southward across the Pacific
Northwest, causing rising heights over the center of the nation.

Most challenging area in this forecast period is with rain on
Wednesday. The tail end of the NAM is trending toward the solution
favored by the ECMWF and GEM for the last few days, with a surface
low riding northeast along the base of the trough, although the
NAM is much further west with it. The GFS has keep its surface
features much weaker and further east. Have kept the likely PoP's
on Wednesday across the southeast third of the area, although the
ECMWF/GEM solutions would likely require this to be expanded
further northwest toward the I-55 corridor. Thursday and Friday,
the rain will be much more scattered in nature, as weak troughs
rotate around through the broad upper trough. Rain chances will
diminish this weekend as the upper flow flattens.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1248 PM CDT Sun May 11 2014

Thunderstorms currently over south-central Iowa continue to move
E/NE and will enter northwest Illinois after 20z. Current
trajectory should take most of the storms just north of KPIA, so
will only include VCTS between 22z and 02z. Further southeast,
scattered storms are firing in the warm sector across southern
Illinois. HRRR continues to suggest these cells will spread/develop
northward into east-central Illinois this afternoon. Have
therefore included VCTS at the remaining terminals between 21z and
02z, although KSPI may be missed by convection entirely if trends
hold. Gusty S/SE winds will continue through the afternoon and
will remain in the 10 to 15kt range tonight. Meanwhile, a 45kt
925mb jet will develop across the area overnight, warranting a
low-level wind shear mention at the TAF sites. This momentum will
mix to the surface after sunrise, resulting in gusty S/SW winds
Monday morning.

Barnes

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, May 11, 3:22 PM CDT, 3 hours 12 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

ILZ027>031-036-037-040-041-047-121100-
CASS-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MASON-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-
WOODFORD-
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WARM FRONT
AS WELL...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A MACOMB TO PONTIAC LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY NIGHT...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING THROUGH 8 PM.

ILZ038-042>046-048>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-121100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DE WITT-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-MENARD-
MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-VERMILION-
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS ILLINOIS FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

BARNES

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 11, 4:37 PM CDT, 1 hour 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
437 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             WINDSOR                 39.44N 88.60W
05/11/2014  M0.75 INCH       SHELBY             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRP

Local storm report, May 11, 5:08 PM CDT, 1 hour 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
508 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     HAIL             COLES                   39.52N 88.47W
05/11/2014  M0.88 INCH       COLES              IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY WAND TV

&&

JRP

Local storm report, May 11, 5:18 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
518 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HAIL             SHELBYVILLE             39.41N 88.80W
05/11/2014  M1.00 INCH       SHELBY             IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY WAND TV DECATUR

&&

JRP

Local storm report, May 11, 5:50 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
550 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             2 SE GREENUP            39.23N 88.13W
05/11/2014  M0.75 INCH       CUMBERLAND         IL   MESONET

&&

JRP

Local storm report, May 11, 5:52 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
552 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             GREENUP                 39.25N 88.16W
05/11/2014  M1.00 INCH       CUMBERLAND         IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY WAND TV DECATUR

&&

JRP

Local storm report, May 11, 5:53 PM CDT, 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
553 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             GREENUP                 39.25N 88.16W
05/11/2014  M2.50 INCH       CUMBERLAND         IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JRP

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 11, 1:38 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Effingham, Jasper	67 min
May 11, 2:03 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Clark, Cumberland	57 min
May 11, 2:44 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	ILX	Crawford	46 min
May 11, 2:55 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Clark, Crawford	50 min
May 11, 4:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Coles, Douglas, Moultrie, Shelby	66 min
May 11, 4:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Lawrence, Richland	46 min
May 11, 4:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Knox	63 min
May 11, 4:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Crawford	38 min
May 11, 5:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Marshall, Woodford	45 min
May 11, 5:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Clark, Coles, Cumberland, Jasper	65 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.