Frost Advisory 2, NWS Lincoln, IL

Champaign County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Macon County, IL, Marshall County, IL, McLean County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Richland County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Woodford County, IL

632 
WWUS73 KILX 050229
NPWILX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
929 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014

...AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

ILZ030-031-038-043>046-053>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-051000-
/O.CON.KILX.FR.Y.0002.141005T0500Z-141005T1300Z/
MARSHALL-WOODFORD-MCLEAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-MACON-
MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...CHAMPAIGN...
URBANA...DANVILLE...DECATUR...CHARLESTON...MATTOON...
SHELBYVILLE...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE
929 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT SUNDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT SUNDAY. 

* TEMPERATURE...LOWS IN THE MID 30S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA 
  OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS 
  EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE POTENTIAL IS LOWER 
  FURTHER WEST AS CLOUDS MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT EXPOSED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS SHOULD BE COVERED FOR PROTECTION.

&&

$$


HJS

626 
WWUS73 KILX 050842
NPWILX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
342 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014

...AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...

ILZ030-031-038-043>046-053>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-051300-
/O.CON.KILX.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-141005T1300Z/
MARSHALL-WOODFORD-MCLEAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-MACON-
MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...CHAMPAIGN...
URBANA...DANVILLE...DECATUR...CHARLESTON...MATTOON...
SHELBYVILLE...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE
342 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING. 

* TEMPERATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN THE MID 30S BY DAWN.
  THIS MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
  AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THE POTENTIAL IS LOWER FURTHER WEST AS
  MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN EARLY THIS MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED IF LEFT EXPOSED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS SHOULD BE COVERED FOR PROTECTION.

&&

$$

07

305 
WWUS73 KILX 051206
NPWILX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
706 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014


ILZ030-031-038-043>046-053>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-051315-
/O.CAN.KILX.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-141005T1300Z/
MARSHALL-WOODFORD-MCLEAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-MACON-
MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-
JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...CHAMPAIGN...
URBANA...DANVILLE...DECATUR...CHARLESTON...MATTOON...
SHELBYVILLE...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE
706 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2014

...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS CANCELLED THE FROST
ADVISORY. 

CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING RAISING THE
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE...THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED EARLY.

$$


ONTON

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
233 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014

Very early taste of winter observed across parts of the northern CWA
today, with light snow and sleet in many areas along/north of I-74
and as far south as Clinton. Bulk of this has shifted to our east,
with only Champaign and Vermilion Counties still seeing some this
afternoon. Large stratocumulus shield has been persisting over much
of the northeast 3/4 of the CWA, but is showing more signs of
diurnal development along the southern flank early this afternoon
with all of the CWA now with a fair amount of clouds.

Main forecast challenge for tonight is with frost potential and any
needed headlines.

Surface trough currently extending along Lake Michigan into northern
Illinois will swing eastward over the next several hours. This
should start to pull the cloud cover out of our area, with model
humidity cross-sections showing mostly clear skies over the CWA by
about 8-9 pm. Winds will diminish as well, as they turn more
southwest ahead of a shortwave which is currently diving out of
eastern Montana. This feature is likely to produce a surge of
mid-level clouds into the forecast area after midnight, with the
GFS/RAP models showing mostly cloudy skies quickly becomig the norm.
The NAM is a few hours slower with this. While some patchy frost is
possible over the entire forecast area, currently think that the
east half has a slightly better chance with overnight skies staying
clearer longer. After collaboration with neighboring offices, will
issue a frost advisory from about Lacon to Decatur to Flora
eastward. Conditions may be a bit marginal, but this is the first
real cold spell of the season that could cause issues. Low
temperatures should dip into the mid 30s most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014

Models in general agreement in keeping trough over eastern North
America in place through much of next week with a gradual weakening
trend.  However, there is little agreement on timing and intensity
of waves rotating through the trough. Best chances of precip look to
be lining up for Monday as the strongest wave in the train is
scheduled to round the base of the trough.  Temperatures at 500 mb
are expected to fall back to around -24C in the wave axis and may be
enough to steepen lapse rates enough to produce some isolated
thunder.

Although handling the evolution similarly, latest model suite begins
diverging significantly on low-level moisture and thermal by middle
week.  GFS is a bit weaker and progressive with waves through the
trough.  It also wants to absorb the remnant moisture from T.S.
Simon into the flow and move it through southern Illinois Thursday
Night.  ECMWF lags more energy westward and is stronger with lift.
With the stronger surface reflection, Gulf moisture gets injected
into the flow much faster than CMC or GFS bringing decent isontropic
lift and rainfall back to the forecast area as early as Wednesday
evening.  Given the large solution envelope, will need to
broadbrush rain chances for the later half of the week.

As for temperatures, A generally upward trend is expected as heights
increase through Tuesday.  However, climb should be slow as continued
clouds and occasional light precip will keep daytime temps below
seasonal normals.  Given the model differences in precip onset and
strength of the wave expected in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe,
models diverge markedly in the low-level thermal fields beginning
Wednesday.  Will need to be take a compromise between the GFS and
ECMWF. However, users should keep in mind that the forecast contains
more than normal uncertianty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014

Light rain/snow showers will be affecting KBMI and KCMI over the
next few hours. Cannot rule out a couple of ice pellets
accompanying them due to the drier air in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. Most ceilings will be VFR through the afternoon as
a large area of stratocumulus continues to swing through the
Midwest, although some ceilings at or below 3000 feet may linger
for an hour or two near KBMI. Skies to clear for a time overnight,
but clouds expected to move in quickly from the west late tonight.
The gusty west/northwest winds to 25 knots or so will diminish by
00Z, then turn more to the southwest overnight as a fast moving
low pressure area drops into Missouri.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Sunday FOR
ILZ030-031-038-043>046-053>057-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Barker
AVIATION...Geelhart

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1108 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-051100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-
LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-
PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
1108 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A FEW
LARGER STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-051100-
CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND-
1108 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER NEAR
CLAY CITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON OTHER AREA RIVERS...RISES WILL
CONTINUE IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN...BUT THEY SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

GEELHART