Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Lincoln, IL

213 
WGUS73 KILX 041032
FFSILX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
532 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ILC115-139-147-041047-
/O.EXP.KILX.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-140604T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MACON IL-MOULTRIE IL-PIATT IL-
532 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN PIATT...
NORTHERN MOULTRIE AND MACON COUNTIES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3979 8848 3974 8847 3971 8904 4004 8908
      4005 8848 3979 8847

$$

BAK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1140 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 835 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

Latest surface map showing frontal boundary roughly extending from
Paris to just north of Springfield, before arcing northwest into
southern Iowa. Intense convection developed as expected west of
the Mississippi River, but has been trending a bit south of east
with movement. Greatest focus for severe weather shifting a bit
further south, with areas north of I-74 appearing to be less
likely for severe weather. Short-range model solutions still
struggling with the evolution, but have found the Hop-WRF model
closest to the current activity. That model shows the east-
southeast trend continuing with the focus more along the I-72
corridor, especially from Springfield westward which is roughly
where the latest SPC Day1 moderate risk is located.

Will adjust the PoP's in the grids and zones soon to reflect the
latest trends.

Geelhart

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1140 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

Intense line of storms located in west central Illinois at 0430Z
and will move east, potentially reaching KSPI shortly after 06Z
with a close pass at KPIA around the same time. Quyestion will be
how much this weakens, as it moves toward the east central
Illinois TAF sites. Have lowered the gusts a bit as it reaches
KCMI, but still looking at 30-40 knots at most TAF sites. Frontal
boundary still projected to sink southward during the afternoon,
with winds turning north and then northeast by evening.

Geelhart

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 341 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

Main concern is the potential for severe weather overnight and
again tomorrow, the timing of the severe weather, and the
potential for flash flooding during the event over the area.
Models have trended north with the bulk of the pcpn during the
overnight and tomorrow morning hours. However, based on the
location and orientation of the sfc front, and the expected
movement of large MCSs during the overnight hours, am expecting
the storms and the resulting heavy rainfall to move southeast into
central Illinois late tonight, so the axis of max qpf and severe
weather should be south of the model forecasts. Models do continue to
differ on the timing of the storms, so timing of the storms
through the area is very uncertain. This timing will be highly
dependent on the evolution of said storm complex during the late
evening hours.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday

Storms over northeastern Neb will continue to move east-southeast
just along and north of the front into eastern Neb later this
afternoon and into this evening. Additional storms will likely
develop in the same general area around midnight as the low level
jet sets up and intensifies ahead of the low press area coming out
of eastern CO and into western KS and central Neb. As the complex
of storms evolves into a larger MCS structure, the system should
begin to move in an east to southeast direction and move across
southern Iowa and into west central IL after midnight. Timing is
hard to determine because these systems sometimes increase in
forward speed as the cold pool behind the system becomes stronger
and better defined. Am expecting a bow echo/linear type storm
system to move into west central IL shortly after midnight and
then move southeast through the area during the overnight and
early morning hours. Main threat of severe weather with this
system will be damaging winds and speeds could exceed 70mph. If
the system is weaker as it moves through the area, the wind damage
will probably be in pockets across the area. If the system,
however, remains strong and is moving quickly, the damage will
likely be more continuous and widespread. Hopefully by sometime
later this evening, these details will be more obvious and can be
included for a later forecast.

In addition to the severe weather potential, there is also a
threat of flash flooding. These MCSs can put down a lot of rain in
a short period of time. These can lead to flash flooding very
easily, especially in urban areas and low water crossings. The
axis of the heaviest rain should be along I-74. Most of the
rainfall will fall between 06z tonight and 00z tomorrow evening,
with the highest amounts being in the 12hr period of 06z-18z.
Amounts of 2.5 inches or more can be expected in that general
corridor along I-74. A flash flood watch was considered, but there
is still enough uncertainty with location and timing of the
heaviest rainfall in the models, that decided not to issue one at
this time. Later forecast shifts can look at it, plus will make
sure heavy rainfall is mentioned in upcoming forecast.

As the system moves quickly east, the tail end front will become
parallel to the flow, which should end up being somewhere in
southeast IL. Additional severe weather and heavy rainfall is
possible along this front tomorrow through tomorrow afternoon.
Then the front should slide south of the area leaving the rest of
the short term period dry...Thur through Fri.

Temps will be begin to cool tomorrow as the complex moves through
the area. Then the temps will be cooler for Thur and Fri after the
front moves south of the area and a high press ridge moves into
the Grt Lks region, giving northeast winds.

LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday

Another weather system will move toward the area Fri night and
bring more thunderstorms to the area for Sat through Sunday.
Models differ on timing and location of the pcpn, so will just
keep the chance pops in for most of the period, except for Sat
night, when all the models agree that pcpn will be occurring. Dry
weather is then expected Sun night through Mon night, before
another weather system moves into the area for Tue.

Afternoon highs will remain in the 70s through the extended period.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
323 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-041100-
CASS-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-
MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
323 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL ARRIVE IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY
AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN WILL SPREAD TO THE INDIANA BORDER
TOWARD DAYBREAK. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE NEXT ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS UNCLEAR AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND 6 AM
WEDNESDAY.

ILZ044>046-052>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-041100-
CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-
EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
323 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
TONIGHT. WHILE THE STORMS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THEY
REACH EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TOWARD DAYBREAK...THEY
WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY RE-DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY THE MORNING
CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70...WHERE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY AGAIN BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
122 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JACKSONVILLE            39.73N 90.23W
06/04/2014                   MORGAN             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS/BRANCHES DOWN, GREATER THAN 2 INCHES

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
139 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0134 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SPRINGFIELD             39.78N 89.64W
06/04/2014  M1.00 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN 45 MINUTES

&&

JRP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
143 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ILZ043-044-053-040730-
DE WITT-MACON-PIATT-
143 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DE WITT...MACON AND PIATT
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 140 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BEASON TO LATHAM TO
EDINBURG...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...AS WELL AS
INTENSE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

PEOPLE IN DE WITT...MACON AND PIATT COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES
OF WARRENSBURG...KENNEY...HARRISTOWN...FORSYTH...MAROA...CLINTON...
OREANA...DECATUR...ARGENTA AND WELDON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS...AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

LAT...LON 4027 8847 3983 8848 3974 8914 4019 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 0642Z 265DEG 46KT 4015 8915 3992 8911
          3970 8931

GEELHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
148 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND GST     LATHAM                  39.97N 89.16W
06/04/2014  E60 MPH          LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT FIRE STATION IN LATHAM

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
217 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SW JEROME             39.76N 89.69W
06/04/2014  M1.50 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
219 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LATHAM                  39.97N 89.16W
06/04/2014                   LOGAN              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWN ALL AROUND TOWN. NUMEROUS TREES AND TREE
            LIMBS BLOWN DOWN

&&

JRP