Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
153 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG
INTO THE REGION TOWARDS MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE MOST OF THE STORMS OVER CWA APPEAR TO BE CLUSTERED OVER
CENTRAL OHIO AND SPREADING S ALONG ROUTE 23 IN THE SCIOTO
VALLEY...AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
REMAINDER OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CELLS SOUTH OF CWA IN KY
ARE INDICATIVE OF TEMPS HITTING A CONVECTIVE TRIGGER AND TSTORMS
BECOMING LOWER BASED. IF WESTERN CWA WHICH HAS NOT BEEN WORKED
OVER WITH STORMS CAN HEAT UP...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH ALL THAT BEING SAID...TEMPS ARE SOMEWHAT MUTED THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE RAINFALL AND I PUSHED THE COOLER READINGS INTO
THE EVENING TEMPERATURE TRACE AND BLENDED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND MORE TSTORMS TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OHIO RIVER AND INTO KY.

STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND EFFICIENT RAINERS BUT LARGELY JUST
PRODUCING BENEFICIAL RAIN THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
FLOODING UNDER A CLUSTER THAT TAKES ITS TIME TO MOVE FROM POINT A
TO POINT B. NO CLEAR INDICATIONS EXIST TO PINPOINT WHERE TSTORMS
FAVORED DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON...OR EVEN IF IT GOES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE AREA COULD STILL ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEATING ON SUNDAY IN
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF NEXT PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE MEAN EASTERN TROUGH WITH THE 00Z GFS BEING
FASTER AND STRONGER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE
LATTER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A FRONT DROPPING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY AND THEN JUST SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH MID WEEK.
LOOKS LIKE THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ACTIVE WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE STALLING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO AROUND NORMAL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND
THEN DROP BACK SLIGHTLY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN MIAMI COUNTY
PER THE SPIN ON THE SHOWER THAT WAS THERE FROM 17-18Z AND THE
DIFFERING CLOUD TYPES/MOVEMENTS NOTED IN VIS SATELLITE AT ISSUANCE
TIME. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN THIS
AFTERNOON...PUTTING KDAY ON THE BACK SIDE AND DOWNWARD MOTION. DO
NOT HAVE ANY CONTINUED SHOWERS HERE...AND ONLY THING GOING IN THE
GENERALLY CLEARER SKIES IN SW OH IS A LINE W OF FAIRFIELD MOVING
TOWARDS CVG/LUK TAFS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. KILN COULD STAY DRY
AND CMH MAY SEE REDEVELOPMENT AFTER THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS
SANS THUNDER QUITS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BY 0Z...H5 LOW IS BETWEEN DAY AND CMH AND ACTIVITY WILL BE ON A
CONTINUED DOWN SLIDE WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN WORKED OVER
FROM THE ONGOING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE
PRIMED TO CONTINUE ANY STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A LACK
OF DAYTIME HEATING CREATING UNSTABLE AIR.

WITH THE RAIN FROM LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...A NUMBER OF TAF SITES
WILL PROBABLY GET 5SM BR LATE OVERNIGHT AS LOWS AROUND 60 DROP
TOWARDS SIMILAR DEWPOINTS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUES NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...FRANKS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-030900-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
500 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING MAY BECOME VERY SLOW
MOVING. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
124 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE GAHANNA           40.04N 82.83W
08/02/2014  M2.56 INCH       FRANKLIN           OH   MESONET

&&

BINAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
128 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

OHZ073-082-021815-
PIKE OH-ROSS OH-
128 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ROSS AND
WESTERN PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 126 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM FRANKFORT TO POPLAR GROVE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...CHILLICOTHE...
KNOCKEMSTIFF...SUMMITHILL...ANDERSONVILLE...LADD...BUCHANAN...NORTH
FORK VILLAGE...ELM GROVE...IDAHO...MASSIEVILLE AND LAKE WHITE.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. WATER WILL POND
ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3896 8309 3896 8321 3897 8322 3899 8321
      3900 8323 3901 8324 3902 8327 3904 8331
      3905 8331 3906 8335 3944 8320 3947 8284

SNYDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

OHZ081-021800-
ADAMS OH-
136 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY
THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 133 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BLUE
CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY...INCLUDING BLUE CREEK AND WAMSLEY.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3883 8327 3862 8327 3872 8348 3883 8341

SNYDER

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