Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
346 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ILN CWA...WITH HAZARDOUS
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A VERY SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE CWA FROM
ROUGHLY DARKE THROUGH SCIOTO COUNTIES. WITH NORTH WINDS AND
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...CONVECTION IS
UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY HAS GROWN
SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH LAPS ANALYSIS RELIABLY ESTIMATING MLCAPE AS
HIGH AS 3000 J/KG. LARGE SCALE FORCING AND GENERAL FLOW THROUGH
THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER WEAK...KEEPING STORM MOTIONS SLOW AND
DEVELOPMENT DISORGANIZED (THOUGH GENERALLY ROOTED TO THE BOUNDARY
AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD).

THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY IS ON THE LOW SIDE...GIVEN THE LACK OF
SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SITUATION MAY END UP BEHAVING SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY IN SOME WAYS...WITH OCCASIONAL CORE COLLAPSES AND
DOWNDRAFTS PRODUCING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS. THE BIGGER
CONCERN FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...WITH SLOW
STORM MOTIONS IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OF 1.6-1.8 INCHES). A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AREA WHERE THE STORMS HAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPED...AND THE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH THEY ARE EXPECTED TO VERY
GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THIS FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WAS ALSO IMPACTED BY STORMS YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT.

POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND FOCUSED THROUGH
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. LATER TONIGHT...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
PIVOT CLOCKWISE...AS THE MINIMUM IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE REDUCES
CONVECTIVE CONCERNS. THE MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
NIGHT OF WARM MIN TEMPS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH
CENTRAL OHIO MAY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE UPDATED SOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION >
WITH THE FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES. EXPECT
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WHEN CONVECTION WILL BE ENHANCED
BY A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE FRONT...COINCIDING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

A DRIER PATTERN WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY WHEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN ON A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS.

LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW ON
SATURDAY.  THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE REGION.  PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE FA AND KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON
TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AND
THEREFORE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.  PRECIPITATION WILL
TAPER OFF BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE AGAIN AS THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE AROUND THE SLOW
MOVING SFC BOUNDARY IN SRN OHIO. SCT TSTM WILL AFFECT THE SRN/WRN
TAFS THROUGH THE AFTN HOURS.

ACTIVITY BEGINS TO SETTLE DOWN AROUND 00Z...BUT THERE COULD BE
LINGERING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT.

SFC LOW WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...MOVING THE FRONT
BACK NE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON THE DAY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ060>062-
     070>072-077>080.
KY...NONE.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-058-
     059-066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HATZOS
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
311 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ060>062-070>072-077>080-201915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-
311 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...AND WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOPING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TODAY AND TOMORROW. SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ063-073-081-082-088-201915-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
FAYETTE OH-ROSS-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
311 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY...AND WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TODAY AND TOMORROW. SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE
WEATHER MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-064-065-074-201915-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
HOCKING-
311 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY
OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY.

HATZOS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
443 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             PEEBLES                 38.95N 83.41W
06/19/2014  E0.75 INCH       ADAMS              OH   PUBLIC

&&

KURZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
444 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

OHZ072-079-080-192115-
BROWN OH-CLINTON OH-HIGHLAND OH-
444 PM EDT THU JUN 19 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN HIGHLAND...SOUTHERN
CLINTON AND NORTHERN BROWN COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 443 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ST.
MARTIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...WESTBORO...DANVILLE...ST. MARTIN AND RUSSELL.

LAT...LON 3930 8365 3916 8363 3910 8371 3911 8389
      3923 8396 3932 8396

HATZOS