Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
136 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROVIDE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MID MORNING WITH AN
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND INTO THE LATE MORNING AS ONE DISTURBANCE
PASSES TO OUR SOUTHEAST. REDEVELOPMENT OR AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA. RAMPED UP POPS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 71.
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH PWAT VALUES SAMPLED BY THE ILN 12Z SOUNDING AROUND
1.25 INCHES WITH A THIN/WARM CAPE PROFILE. ANY RADAR ECHOES
EXCEEDING 40 DBZ WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE. BASED ON THE FACT THAT SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE RECEIVED AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE
DISTURBANCE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
A FEW DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR DUE TO
THE ONGOING PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...AND A MORE
PROLONGED EXPECTATION OF THESE SHOWERS NOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END EARLY TONIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THOUGH MODEL QPF IS LESS ROBUST FOR THIS
SYSTEM THAN ON PREVIOUS RUNS...HAVE KEPT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY...MODELS SHOW WARM FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
REGIME SHOULD PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER...THOUGH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE
FRONT.

TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND 80 ARE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY...AND LOWER 80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A WARM FRONT WILL BUILD IN
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION EARLY...WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOUND BEHIND IT ON THIS DAY AND
THURSDAY.

MODELS WERE LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER AND LESS AMPLIFIED ECMWF
ENSEMBLE SOLUTION BUT STILL HAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN
OHIO BY 12Z WED. THE HIGH TEMPS WED DID NOT AGREE WITH THEIR SFC
PROGS AND I COULD NOT COME IN LINE WITH THE 80 DEG AT CMH NOTED
FROM ECMWF. TOOK YESTERDAYS FORECAST AND BLENDED WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF...LEANING HEAVILY ON PREVIOUS COLDER FORECAST. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. EVEN WITH A CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION PATTERN ON
FRIDAY...READINGS SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S MONDAY WILL DROP TO THE 50S TUESDAY AND
ROUND OUT THE WEEK IN 40S.

THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA TUES AND
EARLY WED. I DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT THINKING THAT THE
WARM SECTOR SHOWERS WOULD BE VERY SPOTTY AND OCCUR UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE. ONCE THE THUNDER THREAT PASSED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD POOL THURSDAY
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRIDAY...BOTH DUE TO THE DAYTIME SUN HITTING
A COOL AND MOIST COLUMN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BACK EDGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS REACHED KDAY AND WILL REACH OUR REMAINING TERMINALS
BY AROUND 20Z. UNTIL THAT TIME...MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE WITH MANY
AREAS HAVING SEE RAINFALL TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. THIS
FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MIDDAY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...LATTO/PADGETT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
214 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W WILMINGTON          39.44N 83.91W
05/10/2014  M1.26 INCH       CLINTON            OH   NWS EMPLOYEE

            RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR TODAY.

&&

ANOVAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
254 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

KYZ091>093-101945-
KENTON KY-BOONE KY-CAMPBELL KY-
254 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAMPBELL...BOONE AND KENTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 250 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
RICHWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 45 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...INDEPENDENCE...TAYLOR
MILL AND ALEXANDRIA.

ALSO...RICEDALE...EDGEWOOD...BANK LICK...ATWOOD...WHITE TOWER...
LATONIA LAKES...FAIRVIEW...RYLAND HEIGHTS...COLD SPRING AND VISALIA
ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3900 8430 3881 8442 3891 8473 3906 8463

ASL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
318 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

KYZ090-092-093-095>097-OHZ078-079-101945-
KENTON KY-PENDLETON KY-BRACKEN KY-CAMPBELL KY-GALLATIN KY-GRANT KY-
BROWN OH-CLERMONT OH-
318 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CLERMONT...
WESTERN BROWN...NORTHERN GRANT...EASTERN GALLATIN...CAMPBELL...
NORTHWESTERN BRACKEN...NORTHERN PENDLETON AND KENTON COUNTIES THROUGH
345 PM EDT...

AT 316 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM BLAIRSVILLE TO MORNING VIEW TO MUNK...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...NEW RICHMOND...
AMELIA...BUTLER...BETHEL AND FALMOUTH.

ALSO...SHERMAN...GUBSER MILL...LINDALE...CALIFORNIA...
GARDNERSVILLE...NORTHCUTT...MENTOR...NICHOLSVILLE...PEACH GROVE AND
BANTAM ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3871 8479 3872 8479 3871 8481 3872 8486
      3879 8468 3878 8466 3881 8461 3883 8461
      3886 8453 3904 8436 3903 8432 3907 8431
      3902 8382 3881 8403 3866 8436

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