Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
646 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT IN
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE
GENERALLY ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM MEMPHIS TOWARDS THE TRI-
STATE. AT THIS POINT EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
00Z AND THEN PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 10Z. STRONGEST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z. SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70
WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE GREATER IN THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE THERE MIGHT BE PRECIPITATION FROM PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION AS WELL AS FRONTAL ACTIVITY. SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE IN
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND THIS IN ADDITION TO EVEN LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE FLOOD CONCERNS. SO FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS ROBUST WITH WIND GUSTS ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. BUT DO NOT WANT TO COMPLETELY
DISCOUNT THIS POSSIBILITY. SO STARTED WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION TOMORROW INTO
SATURDAY. GRADIENT WILL STILL BE RATHER TIGHT BETWEEN THIS AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA. SO EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS WITH A WIND
ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. COULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS
DIMINISH.

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY AND THEN SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE BUT ONLY EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AND SAW LITTLE
REASON TO DEVIATE FAR FROM A MOS CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE
PRECIPITATION WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY.  DUE TO MODEL AND
RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY HAVE DECIDED TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO A CHANCE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA.  PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE FA FOR MONDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.  MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THE
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS WELL.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SNOW.  THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER IN COLDER AIR TO THE REGION.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH
PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE
SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS THROUGH 02Z. THE FAST MOVING BAND OF
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z. IFR VSBYS AND
MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BAND OF CONVECTION MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. VERY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 KT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...PRECIPITATION WILL END. HOWEVER...WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY...UP TO 30 KTS...FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY GO BACK TO VFR BEHIND
THE LINE OF PRECIPITATION...AND WILL THEN RETURN TO MVFR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE MORNING. BY MID MORNING...COLD ADVECTION AND MIXING
WITH DAYTIME SUN WILL BRING A FURTHER INCREASE IN WIND GUSTS UP TO
35 KT. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
CLOUDS EXIT THE AREA AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. BY THE
EVENING...WIND GUSTS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR KYZ089>100.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...LATTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
430 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-211500-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
430 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   WIND ADVISORY.

SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
ALSO A BRIEF ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
455 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N PORTSMOUTH          38.75N 82.99W
02/20/2014                   SCIOTO             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 1 INJ *** LARGE TREE DOWNED ONTO THREE MOVING
            VEHICLES ON US-23. TWO OF THE CARS WERE TOTALLED. ONE
            INJURED PERSON WAS TRANSPORTED TO THE HOSPITAL.

&&

SNYDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
457 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST PORTSMOUTH              38.74N 82.99W
02/20/2014  M45 MPH          SCIOTO             OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SNYDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
913 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

INZ050-058-059-066-073-074-OHZ034-035-042>044-051-060-061-070-077-
210345-
UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-DEARBORN IN-FAYETTE IN-WAYNE IN-RIPLEY IN-
AUGLAIZE OH-BUTLER OH-DARKE OH-HAMILTON OH-LOGAN OH-MERCER OH-
MIAMI OH-MONTGOMERY OH-PREBLE OH-SHELBY OH-
913 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SHELBY...PREBLE...
WESTERN MONTGOMERY...MIAMI...SOUTHERN MERCER...WESTERN LOGAN...
NORTHWESTERN HAMILTON...DARKE...WESTERN BUTLER...SOUTHWESTERN
AUGLAIZE...NORTHERN RIPLEY...WAYNE...FAYETTE...NORTHERN DEARBORN...
FRANKLIN AND UNION COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM EST...

AT 912 PM EST...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 29 MILES NORTH OF FRANKLIN TO 26 MILES NORTHWEST OF
GLENWOOD TO 42 MILES WEST OF NAPOLEON...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...HAGERSTOWN...CAMBRIDGE
CITY...FORT RECOVERY...CONNERSVILLE...FOUNTAIN CITY...CENTERVILLE...
LAUREL...RICHMOND...ANSONIA...OLDENBURG...BATESVILLE...NEW PARIS...
GREENVILLE...LIBERTY AND BROOKVILLE.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THESE STORMS BECOME
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3927 8530 3979 8531 3980 8523 4000 8521
      4001 8482 4045 8481 4044 8386 4028 8397
      4027 8401 4020 8402 3915 8472 3915 8545
      3920 8545