Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
402 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
BEHIND IT...WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE WITH WIND AND HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING THIS EVENING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT AND THEN WILL THEN BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT
CLOSE TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUIET
WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THUS THERE WILL BE A LACK OF ANY
FORCING IN THE AREA. EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES BEFORE THE END OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH THE
WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAKENING
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. ONGOING
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING OUR
AREA DURING THE MID MORNING. THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CONVECTION AND ITS IMPACTS ON
LATER IN THE DAY CONVECTION. BASICALLY...TWO SCENARIOS COULD PLAY
OUT. THE FIRST WOULD BE ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AS AN MCS MOVING
INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING AND EXITING DURING THE
LATE EVENING...WITH ONE MAIN EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THE OTHER SCENARIO WOULD BE WEAKENING MORNING CONVECTION MOVING
INTO OUR AREA CAUSING MODIFICATIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALSO
RESULTING IN VARIATIONS OF THE LOCATION IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS SECOND SCENARIO WOULD BE TRICKIER TO DEAL
WITH FOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WOULD
LIKELY MEAN LESSER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES DUE TO SOME STABILIZATION FROM EARLY
CONVECTION. EITHER SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN EXTRAPOLATING
CURRENT CONVECTION'S POSITION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS CONVECTION MAY OR MAY NOT WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
AS IT APPROACHES. THUS...IT WAS NECESSARY TO BROADLY FORECAST
TIMING FOR POPS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES DURING THE PEAK HEATING
OF THE DAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH INCREASING SHEAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
AND...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY IN THE VICINITY...CANNOT RULE
OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE
FRONT.

MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SO...HAVE POPS
DECREASING RAPIDLY INTO THE LATE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CONVECTION. THIS WILL HELP
TO COOL TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA AND THE NRN CONUS IN PARTICULAR WILL BE IN A BELT OF
MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH IT
FROM TIME TO TIME. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MODEL RUN VARIABILITY IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE FEATURES.  AS A RESULT...HAVE
PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH WPC GUIDANCE WHICH TRIES TO SMOOTH THE
VARIABILITY SOME BUT ALSO OFFERS MORE OF A BROAD BRUSH FORECAST INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WARNING.

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL TO OUR
SOUTH...USHERING COOLER AND DRIER AIR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S FOLLOWED BY COOL UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST WHILE ONE OF THOSE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES. WE SHOULD SEE ONE MORE DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S.

FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...INCREASING
MOISTURE...LIFT AND THE APPROACH OF A WARM FRONT/COLD FROM TANDEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR AREA.  HAVE KEPT
POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR NOW DUE TO SOME TIMING ISSUES.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION WITH PCPN COMING TO AN END
BY MONDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BRIEFLY BACK INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES NOW INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING. WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE AND CU FIELD LOOKING MORE AND
MORE ENHANCED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...EXPECT TO SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-71
CORRIDOR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST AND
WE LOSE SOME DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO
DIMINISH AT THE TAF SITES BY EARLY EVENING.

THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ON THEIR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS WELL AS THE EASTWARD TIMING/TRAJECTORY
OF AN MCS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THE OVERALL TREND
DOES APPEAR TO BE THAT THIS MCS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN/CONGEAL INTO
MORE OF A RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM TYPE COMPLEX LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA. THIS COMPLEX
WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT MAKES IT ON
WEDNESDAY AND ALSO HOW QUICKLY WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ASSUMING WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXTENDED KCVG TAF PERIOD WITH A -SHRA/VCTS FROM MID
AFTERNOON ONWARD.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
528 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>053-060-061-042130-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
528 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ054>056-062>065-070>074-077>082-088-
042130-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-
ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
528 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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