Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
817 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND ON
MONDAY AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WORK ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE AND
THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE MENTIONING THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO. THERE
WILL BE A LULL OR DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION DURING PART OF THE
NIGHT. BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM HOWEVER MODELS ARE INDICATING
THAT A DECAYING MCS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DECAYING MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS ON THE
STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE MORNING AND MID DAY HOURS ON MONDAY.
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA HAVE ALSO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A
LATE DAY RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING WITH GREATER COVERAGE IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES TO A DIURNAL MINIMUM
AND UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAK. BUT THEN A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT.
SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
WILL BE QUITE DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW FAST
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS.

SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM. THIS WILL DEVELOP A CLOSED
LOW THAT WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
INITIAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE AREA. BUT
UNTIL THIS OCCURS CONDITIONS WILL BE WET WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A NARROWED DIURNAL RANGE WITH LOWS NEAR
NORMAL AND HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THESE COULD STILL BRING GUSTY WINDS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TEMPORARILY REDUCING VISIBILITY TO IFR. APPEARS THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING LATER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
THE REMAINS OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS COULD DROP INTO THE REGION
AFTER 09Z. SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AROUND 12Z. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN MIST COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IF STORMS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES
INVOLVED HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT AT KLUK. IF A
COMPLEX DOES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING THEN THE CHANCE
OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL
BE QUITE LOW.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
602 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-122215-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
602 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE
MAIN THREATS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  IN ADDITION...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 11 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             3 NW WASHINGTON COURT H 39.57N 83.47W
05/11/2014  E1.00 INCH       FAYETTE            OH   PUBLIC

            TREE LIMBS ALSO REPORTED DOWN. REPORT ON 35 NEAR PALMER
            ROAD.

&&

ANOVAK

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