Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. ON MONDAY...THIS FRONT WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHEAST WHILE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS EAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL THEN FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS WEAKENED AS EXPECTED. STILL
ANTICIPATE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 80S WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN AROUND
70 GIVING CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY
STRONG WINDS ALOFT...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE MAIN THREAT IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN IN A
REGIME CONTAINING A SLOW MOVING FRONT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER
FLOW...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE ILL DEFINED AS IT SAGS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE HEART OF THE CWFA. DO NOT LIKE THE NAM/GFS GRID
SCALE FEEDBACK WHICH BLOW UP HIGH QPF VALUES ACRS THE SRN ZONES
TOWARD MORNING. AS SUCH...HAVE GONE WITH THE CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS WHICH SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NORTHERN
ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
TRICKY DUE TO CLOUDS/PCPN. THIS CALLS FOR A BIAS CORRECTED BLEND
WHICH YIELDS HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO NEAR 90 SE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

A LARGE SCALE ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO
DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. THIS PROCESS
SHOULD SHIFT FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION/CONVERGENT AXIS SOUTHEAST
OF THE REGION WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE NW. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT IS EXPECTED WITH THE SECONDARY FRONT AS IT
ENTERS OUR WRN CWFA LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. AS SUCH...HAVE
KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY ON MONDAY WITH 50 PERCENT
EMPLOYED ACRS THE WEST FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER IN MOST SPOTS...RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW WILL TRAVERSE SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE. AFTER THAT...WE SHOULD BE IN
THE DRY SLOT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. THE COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 70S NW TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK SFC
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE COOL AND WILL APPROACH
RECORD LOWS FOR JULY 16. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE COOL AIRMASS COULD ALLOW FOR A
FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCE AND
COVERAGE APPEARS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO LEAVE OUT OF
FORECAST. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS IT GRADUALLY MODIFIES WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO
POSSIBLY UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLIDE OFF
TO THE EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS WE TRANSITION INTO
RETURN FLOW...HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK INTO THE
LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT
TAF SITES. CONDITIONS MAY INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR
VISIBILITIES...ALONG WITH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS.
ACTIVITY WILL SHOW A WEAKENING TREND THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

AFTER A LULL IN CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WEST...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY IGNITE ON MONDAY AS
WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND INSTABILITY RETURNS.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...CONIGLIO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
150 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

OHZ026-034-035-043-044-141800-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
150 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST
CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ042-045-046-051>056-
060>065-070>074-077>082-088-141800-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-DARKE-UNION OH-DELAWARE-
MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-
GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-
HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
150 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MOST NUMEROUS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT WILL
EXIST AS WELL.

THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND COPIOUS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
MAY ALLOW FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

OHZ073-082-132000-
PIKE OH-ROSS OH-
325 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ROSS AND
NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 324 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SCIOTO
TRAIL STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN PIKE AND SOUTHEASTERN ROSS COUNTIES...INCLUDING RICHMOND
DALE AND LONDONDERRY.

WATER WILL POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND
SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3920 8275 3917 8276 3916 8278 3912 8279
      3911 8301 3929 8303 3933 8275

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

KYZ091>093-132000-
KENTON KY-BOONE KY-CAMPBELL KY-
332 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CAMPBELL...BOONE AND KENTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

AT 330 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
OAKBROOK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 45 MPH...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...UNION...FLORENCE...
ERLANGER...FORT MITCHELL...INDEPENDENCE...TAYLOR MILL AND HIGHLAND
HEIGHTS.

ALSO...RICHWOOD...ELSMERE...CRESCENT PARK...RICEDALE...CRESTVIEW
HILLS...LAKESIDE PARK...EDGEWOOD...FORT WRIGHT...WHITE TOWER AND
LATONIA LAKES ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3904 8478 3905 8441 3904 8439 3888 8440
      3894 8479

ASL