Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
422 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WHEN A POTENT SHORT WAVE
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG THE SLOW MOVING
BOUNDARY. DRIER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON A NORTHWEST UPPER
FLOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT IS ENTERING NORTHWEST OHIO. DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ARE INCREASING INTO THE LOW 70S...ALLOWING AMPLE INSTABILITY
DURING DAYTIME HEATING. LIFT INDUCED BY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-71. LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THIS BAND MAY STILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION. THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SAG GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING RATHER STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.
ELEVATED DEW POINTS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE TAIL OF THE FRONT
WILL TRAVEL TO OHIO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL CARRY A LARGE
SWATH OF MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO AN ALREADY VERY MOIST AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER REGIME. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR THIS
SCENARIO WHICH HAS BEEN DEPICTED BY MODELS IN SIMILAR FASHION FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...AIDED
BY STRONGER WIND FIELDS FEATURING A 45 KNOT 850 MB JET. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIP.

A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CONVECTION COULD OCCUR FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT...WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MOVE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH LONG WAVE TROF SETTLING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AT MID WEEK.

INITIAL SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH SECONDARY FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO ILN/S FA IN THE
AFTN. WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE POPS MAINLY EARLY SOUTH AND ONLY A
SLIGHT CHC OF A SHOWER IN AFTN WITH SECONDARY FRONT NORTH. IN POST
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.

MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME SLIGHT
INDICATION THAT UNDER INFLUENCE OF MEAN TROF AND EMBEDDED WEAK
S/W...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLD POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTN...MAINLY ACRS THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT HAVE KEPT FCST DRY AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY AND OVERALL DRIER MODEL SOLN
TRENDS. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THURSDAY.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY WHILE MID
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AS MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
IN. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY AND
AND SATURDAY.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE ECMWF
SOLN DEVELOPING NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION SAT AFTN DUE TO AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE. GFS SOLN IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER WITH PCPN
ARRIVING SUNDAY AFTN. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW FASTER MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF.  BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OHIO. WILL
SPREAD CHANCE POPS ACRS ENTIRE FA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WARM
FRONT PIVOTING THRU FA. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP IN FROM NW
RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCE NEXT MONDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AND THEN A LTL BELOW NORMAL NEXT MONDAY
WITH PCPN AND FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF
THE COLUMBUS AND DAYTON TAF SITES. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...THE THREAT OF STORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH
TIME...REQUIRING A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER TO BE INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS. THESE STORMS MAY BRING MVFR OR BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
BE ENDING BY EVENING...BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTENTION WILL TURN TO
ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH...THEY MAY STILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING ENOUGH THAT MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME GUSTY LATE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATE IN THE DAY...A FRONT WILL BE PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT WITH GUSTS THAT MAY
APPROACH 30 KNOTS...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS (MAINLY FOR THE
CINCINNATI TAF SITES).

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
714 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE UPPER ARLINGTON    40.05N 83.03W
07/07/2014  M0.90 INCH       FRANKLIN           OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

KURZ

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