Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1004 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING AND ILL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN A HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL ARRIVE WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY IN WARM ADVECTION
BEHIND THE HIGH CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. LOW 70S
DEW POINTS ARE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 60S
IN THE NORTHWEST IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. LAPS
SHOWS CAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG THAT IS DIMINISHING GRADUALLY THIS
EVENING.

CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD...SO UPDATED TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM CVG TO CMH. SEVERAL STRONG STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED...AND THOUGH SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE LIKELY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-71 THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST SITES...WITH LOW 70S IN THE
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT MAY CONTINUE TO
PERCOLATE ON WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN AREA FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE IN
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES CLOSE TO THE DEPARTING FRONT...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE WHOLE AREA
AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH
FORCING EXITING THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A BIT ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND DRIER
AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT.
MODEL FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY SOLUTION FOR
THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE QPF-SPLOTCHY GFS...SO A DRY
FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED. AS A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND HEIGHTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BEGIN
TO RISE...A LENGTHY PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY...THE CLOSEST DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SUNNIER CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...BUT THE
AIR MASS WILL NOT REALLY BEGIN TO MODIFY UNTIL SATURDAY...WHEN WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO PICK UP A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BY
PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90 NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN STATES THAT FLATTENS OUT BY THE END OF SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...PUTTING THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY BACK INTO A
FAVORABLE POSITION FOR CONVECTION. THE FORECAST WILL SPREAD IN 20-30
PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE ILN CWA ON MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH STORMS LOOKING A LITTLE MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THIS POINT...INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES AROUND THE MEAN
TROUGH WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT IN ACTUAL CONVECTIVE TIMING...AND 12Z
GFSE 500MB HEIGHT SPREADS BEGIN TO LOOK QUITE WAVY AND OUT OF SYNC
FROM ONE ENSEMBLE MEMBER TO THE NEXT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS FIRED ALONG AND S OF CDFNT RUNNING FROM NR MFD-DAY-
BMG. A H5 VORT MAX IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW IS HELPING DRIVE THIS
CONVECTION. EXPECT IT TO AFFECT THE TAFS THRU ABOUT 04Z...WITH
CVG/LUK SEEING THE BULK OF THE IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
A POSSIBILITY FOR THE REMAINING TAFS.

CDFNT WILL GRADUALLY BE DRAGGED EAST WITH THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT COULD INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE FROM
THE RAINFALL THIS EVENING TO PRODUCE MVFR STRATUS ESPECIALLY IN
THE SRN AND EASTERN TAFS BEFORE 12Z.

DRIER SURFACE AIR WILL WORK IN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH COOLER AIR
ALOFT...EXPECT A SC CIG TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
811 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051-030015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-
MIAMI-
811 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...MIAMI
VALLEY OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ045-046-052>056-060>065-070>074-
077>082-088-030015-
FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-
KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-
MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-
CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-
SCIOTO-
811 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1018 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MADEIRA                 39.18N 84.37W
07/01/2014  M1.08 INCH       HAMILTON           OH   PUBLIC

            FELL IN PREVIOUS 30 MINUTES

&&

KURZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1029 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

OHZ055-056-063>065-073-074-079>082-020300-
ADAMS OH-BROWN OH-FAIRFIELD OH-FAYETTE OH-FRANKLIN OH-HOCKING OH-
LICKING OH-PICKAWAY OH-PIKE OH-ROSS OH-HIGHLAND OH-
1029 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HIGHLAND...ROSS...
WESTERN PIKE...PICKAWAY...LICKING...WESTERN HOCKING...SOUTHEASTERN
FRANKLIN...SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE...FAIRFIELD...EASTERN BROWN AND
NORTHERN ADAMS COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EDT...

AT 1024 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR SARDINIA TO NEAR CIRCLEVILLE TO NEAR
NEWARK...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...CIRCLEVILLE...
BAINBRIDGE...LANCASTER...KINGSTON...CHILLICOTHE AND BREMEN.

ALSO...MAY HILL...DUMONTVILLE...BROWNSVILLE...EAST RINGGOLD...
FAIRFIELD COUNTY AIRPORT...CYNTHIANA...GRATIOT...PLEASANTVILLE...
LOGAN ELM VILLAGE AND AW MARION STATE PARK ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH. WATER WILL POND
ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3995 8219 3994 8223 3991 8224 3992 8246
      3984 8247 3983 8239 3975 8240 3974 8236
      3967 8236 3896 8318 3896 8321 3899 8321
      3902 8326 3896 8327 3896 8391 3975 8316
      4027 8248 4025 8247 4024 8218

KURZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1032 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

KYZ097-099-100-OHZ079-081-020300-
LEWIS KY-MASON KY-BRACKEN KY-ADAMS OH-BROWN OH-
1032 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BROWN...WESTERN
ADAMS...EASTERN BRACKEN...NORTHERN MASON AND NORTHWESTERN LEWIS
COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 PM EDT...

AT 1029 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MINERVA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...GEORGETOWN...RIPLEY...
MAYSVILLE...WEST UNION...SEAMAN AND MANCHESTER.

ALSO...STONEY POINT...DOVER...TUCKAHOE...SOUTH RIPLEY...MORANBURG...
ABERDEEN...REDOAK...RUSSELLVILLE...LAKE WAYNOKA AND BRADYSVILLE ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3861 8400 3884 8405 3885 8404 3896 8380
      3896 8344 3867 8343

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1033 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             AUGUSTA                 38.77N 84.00W
07/01/2014  E0.25 INCH       BRACKEN            KY   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

ANOVAK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1037 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

KYZ097>100-020315-
LEWIS KY-MASON KY-ROBERTSON KY-BRACKEN KY-
1037 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN BRACKEN...ROBERTSON...
MASON AND NORTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTIES THROUGH 1115 PM EDT...

AT 1034 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOUNT
OLIVET...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
WINDS TO 40 MPH...
ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
VERY HEAVY RAIN...

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...TOLLESBORO.

ALSO...MITCHELLS MILL...BLUE LICKS BATTLEFIELD...BURIKA...ABIGAIL...
ALHAMBRA...SARDIS...LOWELL...PEED...MURPHYSVILLE AND MAYS LICK ARE
NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

DO NOT STAY IN THE OPEN NOR SEEK SHELTER UNDER TREES WHEN LIGHTNING
THREATENS. MOVE INDOORS WHEN A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. WATER WILL
POND ON ROADS AND MAY QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL
STREAMS.

LAT...LON 3847 8413 3859 8414 3864 8370 3863 8367
      3865 8364 3867 8349 3847 8352 3846 8359
      3849 8360 3852 8364 3845 8385 3848 8394
      3843 8398 3843 8401