Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
559 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN THE OHIO VALLEY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE AREA THURSDAY. THE HIGH
WILL TRACK EAST ON FRIDAY AND MARK THE RETURN OF A MOIST FEED ON
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HAVE TRIED TO ADD SOME INCREASED CHANCES OF STORMS WHERE ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS INTO AND/OR CONTINUE IN THE CWA. PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW...

THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER THE AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND 70S
DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. WHAT STORMS ARE AROUND THIS
EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR TO BE NORTH AND WEST
OF CWA WITH THE SHOWERS THAT SPARKED ALONG I-71 CORRIDOR HAVING
ALREADY FIZZLED OUT. THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY GOING TO BE THE
CONTINUED RULE THIS EVENING AND MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP THIS
EVENING...LEADING TO THE INCLUSION OF STORMS EVERYWHERE FOR AT
LEAST A WHILE TONIGHT. STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE WITH THE
SETTING SUN BUT THIS FORECAST HAS NOT PANNED OUT NICELY THESE PAST
FEW DAYS AND I AM RELUCTANT TO RELY ON THIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND LAYS OUT A COLD FRONT
THAT CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS
REMAIN IN A SORRY STATE OF FLUX EVEN THIS FAR OUT WITH THE GFS
CUTTING OFF A SURFACE LOW N OF CMH BY 12Z WED. WHILE THE PRESSURE
FIELDS INDICATE THE LOW AND FRONT E OF THE I-71 CORRIDOR AT THIS
TIME...INDICATIONS DO NOT SUGGEST A STRONG CUTOFF AND THE
SUBSEQUENT FIELDS FROM GFS ARE DISCOUNTED STRONGLY. UPPER LEVEL
S/W WILL PASS BY AT THIS 12Z WED TIME AS WELL...WITH THE
DRIER/COOLER AIR ON NW WINDS AND DOWNWARD MOTION IN THE UPPER
LEVELS LEADING TO AN ENDING OF THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE REGION
IF ONLY FOR A LITTLE WHILE.

TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TUES WITH LOW 80S UNDER CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. THESE LOW 80S WILL ALSO OCCUR IN THE
POST-FRONTAL COOLER ATMOSPHERE ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP FROM THE UPPER 60S TUES NIGHT TO LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S WED
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL FEATURES OF THE PATTERN THROUGH
THE EXTENDED...BUT ARE SHOWING THEIR TYPICAL DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SMALLER FEATURES.

ZONAL H5 FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WILL GIVE WAY TO A BUILDING H5 RIDGE BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...A STALLED BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL LIFT N AS A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE AREA MAY REMAIN DRY AS A WEAK SFC HIGH
SETTLED DOWN OVER THE AREA BRINGING SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR. BY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY THE LIFTING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO GIVE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE A POSSIBILITY FOR LATTER HALF OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY BRINGS UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE WEEK. THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A LITTLE MORE HEAT TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD AND AROUND 70 FOR THE REST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A LULL OR DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION FOR PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND INTO THE MORNING DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...NOVAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1251 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-241700-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1251 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.