Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Wilmington, OH

379 
WGUS71 KILN 292011
FFSILN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
411 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

OHC061-292019-
/O.EXP.KILN.FF.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140529T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAMILTON OH-
411 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
415 PM EDT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT THROUGH EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY REPORTED THAT 
EARLIER FLASH FLOODING HAS RECEDED. A FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN 
EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 5 PM FOR LINGERING STANDING WATER ON AREA 
ROADS. RAPID RISES ARE NO LONGER AN IMMEDIATE THREAT.

PLEASE REPORT PREVIOUS FLASH FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY GOING TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND SUBMITTING YOUR REPORT
VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

LAT...LON 3905 8442 3911 8444 3912 8445 3910 8451
      3928 8451 3927 8426 3922 8432 3921 8431
      3921 8427 3917 8430 3911 8430 3903 8432

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
155 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

UPDATE...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR SLOW MOVING E-W ORIENTED SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS SE INDIANA AND EXTREME SRN OHIO. DUE
TO LIGHT WIND FLOW AND NEW DEVELOPMENT ON BACK SIDE THESE STORMS
ARE SHOWING VERY SLOW EFFECTIVE MOVEMENT. THIS VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
ALONG WITH MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO FLOOD ISSUES. THEREFORE...HAVE
ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM FOR ILN/S FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

SHARP MID/UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BUILD
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY UPR LOW OVER
THE LOWER MS VLY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY ACRS ILN/S FA. SLOW MOVING E-W SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACRS SRN OH AND SRN IN TO SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING.

MODERATE INSTBY TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH
12Z ILN/S SOUNDING SHOWING A PW OF 1.48 INCHES. ALSO...CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES INDICATED FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP WITH HEATING BY AFTN. THIS CONVECTION
WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTN.

DUE TO WEAK WIND FLOW AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT...LOCAL HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE STORMS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE
PRODUCED HAIL JUST BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. WITH A SIMILAR SETUP
TODAY...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINAL HAIL.
THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBILITY
OF MARGINAL HAIL IN HWO ACRS THE SOUTH.

EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A LTL COOLER THAN YDA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
CLOUDS/PRECIP. EXPECT HIGHS FROM UPPER 70S FAR NORTH TO THE LOWER
80S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FA THIS EVENING AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN WORK
INTO THE FA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.  WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AND POINT TO A RETURN OF
A MORE ACTIVE WX PATTERN. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY INTO GA/SC
PUSHING THE OLD CLOSED LOW SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...BRIDGING INTO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER BAJA/OLD MEXICO.
TO THE NORTH OF THESE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES...WILL BE AN
EVOLVING BROAD TROUGH/WSWLY FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL STEER A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOW WELL OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. -
TRAJECTORIES WILL FAVOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND IT WON/T
TAKE LONG FOR IMPRESSIVE PWAT ANOMALIES /ALREADY SHOWING 2.0 SIGMA
ABOVE CLIMO PER 28.00Z AND 28.06Z NAEFS AND GEFS/ TO BUILD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE MULTI-DAY DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW. ATTENDANT
TO THE MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
FASTER/FLATTER BROAD TROUGH TO OUR WEST...A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY ALIGN PARALLEL
THIS FLOW AND THERE IS SIGNAL TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR
THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAK/STALLING BOUNDARY...ANOMALOUS WARMTH
AND MOISTURE...FASTER DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND MIGRATORY/WEAK WAVES
TO INDUCE STORM COMPLEXES OVER THE MS VALLEY WHICH MAY INVOLVE THE
LOCAL AREA AT SOME POINT. A VERY TYPICAL JUNE PATTERN THAT CAN
DELIVER ACTIVE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. - SO WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH TO WHAT LEVEL THIS MAY INCLUDE THE OHIO VALLEY
ESPECIALLY TUES/WED OF NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW MORE OF THE FOCUS
SEEMS OFF TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST...BUT SUCCESSIVE OUTFLOWS MAY
CHANGE THAT. EITHER WAY...TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL EARLY-
MIDDLE NEXT WEEK WITH DEW POINTS RISING WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR
70 AS IT APPEARS SUMMER IS BECOMING ENTRENCHED. WHILE RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT...SYNOPTIC FORCING IS VERY WEAK AND MUCH MORE
WAA/THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN AS MOISTURE RETURNS. THE BETTER
FORCING AND THUS RAIN CHANCES...REMAINS ON TUES INTO PARTS OF WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW MOVING E-W ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACRS EXTREME SRN
OHIO TO SAG SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING INVOF OF THIS FRONT WHERE MODERATE INSTBY EXISTS. THE
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. HAIL APPROACHING
SEVERE LIMITS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. HAVE MENTION OF STORMS ACRS KCVG/KLUK AND KILN THRU AFTN.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LL KY IN STORMS WITH BRIEF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.

PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. SOME
GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT RESULTING IN OBSTRUCTIONS
TO VISIBILITY. FOG WILL IMPROVE EARLY FRIDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
IN FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ077>082-
     088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ089>100.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ073>075-
     080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...BINAU
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
200 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>082-088-301800-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
200 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO SOME LOCATIONS TODAY. A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-
301800-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-
200 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
133 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

KYZ093-OHZ077-078-291815-
CAMPBELL KY-HAMILTON OH-CLERMONT OH-
133 PM EDT THU MAY 29 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN CLERMONT...EASTERN
HAMILTON AND CAMPBELL COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 125 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN HAMILTON COUNTY...MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY AND PROLONGED
RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...
MILFORD...ANDERSON TOWNSHIP...FORT THOMAS...MARIEMONT...
LUNKEN AIRPORT...INDIAN HILL...TURPIN HILLS...NEWTOWN...
MADEIRA...KENWOOD...AMBERLEY...SUMMERSIDE...
MOUNT CARMEL...NORWOOD...RIVERBEND AND CONEY ISLAND.

LAT...LON 3921 8420 3910 8418 3899 8426 3904 8446
      3913 8453 3928 8448

HATZOS