Alert archive / North Carolina / River Flood Warnings in 2014

River Flood Warning 19, NWS Wilmington, NC

April 19, 2014Robeson County, North Carolina

NWS Wilmington, NC issued this river flood warning at Apr 19, 2014, 10:10 AM EDT for Robeson County, North Carolina. It took effect at Apr 21, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 59 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 19, 2014, 10:10 AM EDT (14:10 UTC)
In effect from: Apr 21, 2014, 11:00 AM EDT
Expired: Apr 23, 2014, 9:55 PM EDT
In force: 59 hr
Issued by: NWS Wilmington, NC
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

County Robeson County, NC

The radar

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Lumber River at Lumberton (LBRN7).

Action stage: 12 ft
Minor stage: 13 ft
Moderate stage: 16 ft
Major stage: 19 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

912 
WGUS42 KILM 191410
FLWILM
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1010 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR 
THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA... 

  LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON AFFECTING ROBESON COUNTY
  BLACK CREEK AT QUINBY AFFECTING DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM UNDER THE 
RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.

&&

NCC155-200610-
/O.NEW.KILM.FL.W.0019.140421T1500Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBRN7.1.ER.140421T1500Z.140423T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1010 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON
* FROM MONDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7:00 AM SATURDAY...THE STAGE WAS 11.2 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...AND
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.6 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* AT 13.0 FEET...LOW LAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER. THE FLOOD
  WATERS MAY AFFECT SOME RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS WATER BACKS UP INTO THE 
  DRAINAGE DITCHES IN THE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3461 7907 3458 7915         

$$

SCC031-041-200610-
/O.NEW.KILM.FL.W.0020.140420T1600Z-140423T0400Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.140420T1600Z.140421T1200Z.140422T1600Z.NO/
1010 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A 

* FLOOD WARNING FOR 
  THE BLACK CREEK AT QUINBY
* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
* AT 10:00 AM SATURDAY...THE STAGE WAS 6.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST. 
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
  AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 10.9 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
* AT 11.0 FEET...FLOODWATERS AFFECT CREEKSIDE DRIVE IN QUINBY. WATER 
  BEGINS TO GET INTO RESIDENTS' YARDS ON CREEKSIDE DRIVE AND EAST BLACK CREEK 
  ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
          3421 7975 3425 7975         

$$

9 follow-up statements

670 
WGUS82 KILM 200110
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
910 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS... 
 
  LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON AFFECTING ROBESON COUNTY NC
  BLACK CREEK AT QUINBY AFFECTING DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES SC
  GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE AFFECTING FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES SC
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM UNDER THE 
RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.

&&

NCC155-201710-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0019.140422T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBRN7.1.ER.140422T0600Z.140423T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
910 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON.
* FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7:42 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 11.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 13.3 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...LOW LAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER. THE FLOOD
  WATERS MAY AFFECT SOME RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS WATER BACKS UP INTO THE 
  DRAINAGE DITCHES IN THE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3461 7907 3458 7915         

$$

SCC041-067-201710-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140424T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
910 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 9:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 19.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.7 FEET BY WEDNESDAY 
  EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL AFFECT SWAMP AND TIMBERLANDS WHILE ALSO 
  DISRUPTING LOGGING OPERATIONS. OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY CEASE AND EQUIPMENT NOT 
  PREVIOUSLY MOVED WILL REMAIN TRAPPED. SOME FARMLAND WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING 
  ESPECIALLY AROUND BRITTON NECK.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
          3385 7944 3398 7957         

$$

SCC031-041-201710-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0020.140420T1648Z-140422T1200Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.140420T1648Z.140421T0600Z.140422T0000Z.NO/
910 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...
 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT QUINBY.
* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 9:00 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 10.4 FEET BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY MONDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.5 FEET...FLOODWATERS BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF EAST BLACK 
  CREEK ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
          3421 7975 3425 7975         

$$

282 
WGUS82 KILM 201414
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1014 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS... 
 
  LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON AFFECTING ROBESON COUNTY NC
  BLACK CREEK AT QUINBY AFFECTING DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES SC
  GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE AFFECTING FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES SC
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM UNDER THE 
RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.

&&

NCC155-210614-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0019.140421T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/LBRN7.1.ER.140421T1800Z.140423T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1014 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...
 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON 
* FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 7:00 AM SUNDAY...THE STAGE WAS 12.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 13.4 FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING.
* AT 13.0 FEET...LOW LAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER. THE FLOOD
  WATERS MAY AFFECT SOME RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS WATER BACKS UP INTO THE 
  DRAINAGE DITCHES IN THE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3461 7907 3458 7915         

$$

SCC041-067-210614-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140424T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1014 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:00 AM SUNDAY...THE STAGE WAS 19.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.8 FEET BY WEDNESDAY 
  EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* AT 23.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL AFFECT SWAMP AND TIMBERLANDS WHILE ALSO 
  DISRUPTING LOGGING OPERATIONS. OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY CEASE AND EQUIPMENT NOT 
  PREVIOUSLY MOVED WILL REMAIN TRAPPED. SOME FARMLAND WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING 
  ESPECIALLY AROUND BRITTON NECK.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
          3385 7944 3398 7957         

$$

SCC031-041-210614-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0020.140421T0200Z-140422T1200Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.140421T0200Z.140421T0600Z.140422T0000Z.NO/
1014 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...
 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT QUINBY
* FROM THIS EVENING TO TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 10:00 AM SUNDAY...THE STAGE WAS 9.0 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* THE CREEK IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
  CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR 10.2 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL
  FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING.
* AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE. CREEK COMING OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
          3421 7975 3425 7975         

$$

757 
WGUS82 KILM 210121
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
921 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS... 
 
  LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON AFFECTING ROBESON COUNTY NC
  BLACK CREEK AT QUINBY AFFECTING DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES SC
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM UNDER THE 
RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.

&&

NCC155-211721-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0019.140422T0600Z-140426T0600Z/
/LBRN7.1.ER.140422T0600Z.140423T1200Z.140425T1800Z.NO/
921 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON.
* FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 7:20 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 13.3 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...LOW LAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER. THE FLOOD
  WATERS MAY AFFECT SOME RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS WATER BACKS UP INTO THE 
  DRAINAGE DITCHES IN THE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3461 7907 3458 7915         

$$

SCC031-041-211721-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0020.140421T0600Z-140422T1200Z/
/BCRS1.1.ER.140421T0600Z.140421T1200Z.140422T0000Z.NO/
921 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...
 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT QUINBY.
* FROM LATE TONIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING.
* AT 9:00 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 10.2 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD 
  STAGE BY TOMORROW EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE. CREEK COMING OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
          3421 7975 3425 7975         

$$

762 
WGUS82 KILM 211351
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
951 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  BLACK CREEK AT QUINBY AFFECTING DARLINGTON AND FLORENCE COUNTIES SC
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS... 
 
  LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON AFFECTING ROBESON COUNTY NC
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

  GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE AFFECTING FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES SC
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM UNDER THE 
RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.

&&

NCC155-220551-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0019.140422T0000Z-140426T0600Z/
/LBRN7.1.ER.140422T0000Z.140423T0600Z.140425T1800Z.NO/
951 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON.
* FROM THIS EVENING TO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT  7:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO RISE TO NEAR
  13.3 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
  EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...LOW LAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER. THE FLOOD
  WATERS MAY AFFECT SOME RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS WATER BACKS UP INTO THE 
  DRAINAGE DITCHES IN THE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3461 7907 3458 7915         

$$

SCC041-067-220551-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140424T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
951 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  9:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.4 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.8 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY 
  MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL AFFECT SWAMP AND TIMBERLANDS WHILE ALSO 
  DISRUPTING LOGGING OPERATIONS. OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY CEASE AND EQUIPMENT NOT 
  PREVIOUSLY MOVED WILL REMAIN TRAPPED. SOME FARMLAND WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING 
  ESPECIALLY AROUND BRITTON NECK.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
          3385 7944 3398 7957         

$$

SCC031-041-211421-
/O.CAN.KILM.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-140422T1200Z/
/BCRS1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
951 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE BLACK CREEK AT QUINBY.
* AT  9:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 10.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER CRESTED BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 9.9 FEET.  THE RIVER WILL 
  FALL TO 9.3 FEET BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 10.0 FEET...FLOOD STAGE. CREEK COMING OUT OF ITS BANKS.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 7979 3429 7973 3431 7967 3423 7963
          3421 7975 3425 7975         

$$
43

497 
WGUS82 KILM 220130
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
930 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

  LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON AFFECTING ROBESON COUNTY NC
  GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE AFFECTING FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES SC
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM UNDER THE 
RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.

&&

NCC155-221730-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140426T0600Z/
/LBRN7.1.ER.140422T0600Z.140423T0600Z.140425T1800Z.NO/
930 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON.
* UNTIL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
* AT 7:30 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.9 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE BY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO 
  RISE TO NEAR 13.3 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW 
  FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...LOW LAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER. THE FLOOD
  WATERS MAY AFFECT SOME RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS WATER BACKS UP INTO THE 
  DRAINAGE DITCHES IN THE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3461 7907 3458 7915         

$$

SCC041-067-221730-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140424T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
930 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 9:00 PM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.5 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY 
  MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL AFFECT SWAMP AND TIMBERLANDS WHILE ALSO 
  DISRUPTING LOGGING OPERATIONS. OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY CEASE AND EQUIPMENT NOT 
  PREVIOUSLY MOVED WILL REMAIN TRAPPED. SOME FARMLAND WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING 
  ESPECIALLY AROUND BRITTON NECK.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
          3385 7944 3398 7957         

$$

945 
WGUS82 KILM 221432
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1032 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS... 
 
  LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON AFFECTING ROBESON COUNTY NC
  GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE AFFECTING FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES SC
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM UNDER THE 
RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.

&&

NCC155-230632-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140426T1200Z/
/LBRN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140423T0000Z.140426T0000Z.NO/
1032 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...
 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON.
* UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.3 FEET BY THIS EVENING. 
  THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...LOW LAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER. THE FLOOD
  WATERS MAY AFFECT SOME RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS WATER BACKS UP INTO THE 
  DRAINAGE DITCHES IN THE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3461 7907 3458 7915         

$$

SCC041-067-230632-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140424T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1032 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 10:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.6 FEET BY THURSDAY 
  EVENING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL AFFECT SWAMP AND TIMBERLANDS WHILE ALSO 
  DISRUPTING LOGGING OPERATIONS. OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY CEASE AND EQUIPMENT NOT 
  PREVIOUSLY MOVED WILL REMAIN TRAPPED. SOME FARMLAND WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING 
  ESPECIALLY AROUND BRITTON NECK.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
          3385 7944 3398 7957         

$$

833 
WGUS82 KILM 230147
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
947 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS... 
 
  LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON AFFECTING ROBESON COUNTY NC
  GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE AFFECTING FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES SC
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM UNDER THE 
RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.

&&

NCC155-231747-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140426T0000Z/
/LBRN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140423T0600Z.140425T1200Z.NO/
947 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING...
 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON.
* UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING.
* AT 7:27 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 13.1 FEET BY AFTER MIDNIGHT 
  TONIGHT. THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...LOW LAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER. THE FLOOD
  WATERS MAY AFFECT SOME RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS WATER BACKS UP INTO THE 
  DRAINAGE DITCHES IN THE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3461 7907 3458 7915         

$$

SCC041-067-231747-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140424T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
947 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 9:00 PM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.5 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.6 FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY 
  AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL AFFECT SWAMP AND TIMBERLANDS WHILE ALSO 
  DISRUPTING LOGGING OPERATIONS. OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY CEASE AND EQUIPMENT NOT 
  PREVIOUSLY MOVED WILL REMAIN TRAPPED. SOME FARMLAND WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING 
  ESPECIALLY AROUND BRITTON NECK.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
          3385 7944 3398 7957         

$$

009 
WGUS82 KILM 231339
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
939 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS... 
 
  LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON AFFECTING ROBESON COUNTY NC
  GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE AFFECTING FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES SC
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM UNDER THE 
RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.

&&

NCC155-240539-
/O.EXT.KILM.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140425T1200Z/
/LBRN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140423T1100Z.140425T0000Z.NO/
939 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING...
 THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON.
* UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
* AT  7:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 13.05 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW 
  EVENING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...LOW LAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER. THE FLOOD
  WATERS MAY AFFECT SOME RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS WATER BACKS UP INTO THE 
  DRAINAGE DITCHES IN THE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3461 7907 3458 7915         

$$

SCC041-067-240539-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140425T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
939 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT  9:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 21.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.9 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY 
  MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL AFFECT SWAMP AND TIMBERLANDS WHILE ALSO 
  DISRUPTING LOGGING OPERATIONS. OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY CEASE AND EQUIPMENT NOT 
  PREVIOUSLY MOVED WILL REMAIN TRAPPED. SOME FARMLAND WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING 
  ESPECIALLY AROUND BRITTON NECK.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
          3385 7944 3398 7957         

$$

185 
WGUS82 KILM 240155
FLSILM
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
955 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...
 
  LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON AFFECTING ROBESON COUNTY NC
 
...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS...

  GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE AFFECTING FLORENCE AND MARION COUNTIES SC
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE FLOOD WATERS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILM UNDER THE 
RIVERS/LAKES AHPS LINK.

&&

NCC155-240225-
/O.CAN.KILM.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140425T1200Z/
/LBRN7.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140423T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
955 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE LUMBER NEAR LUMBERTON.
* AT 7:30 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 12.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 13.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 12.9 FEET FRIDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 13.0 FEET...LOW LAND FLOODING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER. THE FLOOD
  WATERS MAY AFFECT SOME RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY AS WATER BACKS UP INTO THE 
  DRAINAGE DITCHES IN THE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3467 7916 3468 7904 3457 7891 3452 7899
          3461 7907 3458 7915         

$$

SCC041-067-241755-
/O.CON.KILM.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/PDES1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.140425T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
955 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE GREAT PEE DEE AT PEE DEE.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 9:00 PM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.1 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 19.0 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 22.6 FEET BY EARLY FRIDAY 
  MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 23.0 FEET...FLOODING WILL AFFECT SWAMP AND TIMBERLANDS WHILE ALSO 
  DISRUPTING LOGGING OPERATIONS. OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY CEASE AND EQUIPMENT NOT 
  PREVIOUSLY MOVED WILL REMAIN TRAPPED. SOME FARMLAND WILL HAVE MINOR FLOODING 
  ESPECIALLY AROUND BRITTON NECK.

&&

LAT...LON 3424 7962 3424 7950 3400 7945 3385 7932
          3385 7944 3398 7957         

$$

04

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Apr 19, 7:50 AM EDT, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 19, 7:50 AM EDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WET WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH AN OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM WILL LAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT N
AND E AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING. A DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS
WAY UP THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN NORTH
CAROLINA AT SUNRISE. A SIGNIFICANT LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SOME OF THE MORE RESPECTED
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. THESE SAME MODELS ARE SHOWING
PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE COVERAGE SHOULD
BE MORE SCATTERED. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE-INCH DOES EXIST INTO SUN.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...DROPPING SLIGHTLY FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING.
INTO THIS AFTERNOON...A SHALLOW E AND SE FLOW WILL BE TOPPED BY A
MOIST AND DEEP S TO SW FLOW WITH SPEEDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT AND
THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PERSIST. LATER IN THE DAY
AND TONIGHT...THE DEPTH OF EASTERLY WINDS INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY.

LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS TRAPPED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS IS
TYPICAL IN THESE SITUATIONS...ANY MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE
SLOW. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS N FLORIDA TODAY WILL MOVE ENE AND OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA TONIGHT. A VERY PRONOUNCED COASTAL
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW CENTER AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT TRENDING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH
THE RAIN MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES...IT WILL BE THE PERSISTENT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL RESULT IN TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING MORE THAN 3
INCHES. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THE DRY SLOT WHICH WILL ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE STALLING AND REORIENTING. THUS...IT WILL LIKELY NOT RAIN ALL
DAY IN MOST AREAS. WHERE RAIN DOES END FOR A TIME...IT WILL LIKELY
RETURN. WILL FORECAST 100 POPS THIS MORNING WITH POPS TRENDING LOWER
LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL A LIKELIHOOD OF
RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE THE DOWNWARD TREND TONIGHT...DROPPING TO
CHANCE...ESPECIALLY LATE AND DURING SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST...ON THE S AND E SIDE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH STIFF AND
PERSISTENT NE WINDS. THESE WINDS SHOULD ONLY INCREASE TONIGHT AND
SUN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REALLY TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N. EXPECT WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH AT THE COAST AND 30 TO 35 MPH FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE BEACHES. THE STRONG
AND PERSISTENT WINDS MAY RESULT IN SOME BEACH EROSION...MAINLY IN
AREAS EXPOSED TO NE WINDS. THE RISK WILL BE HIGHEST DURING EACH HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. HIGH TIDE IS AT 11 AM AND NEAR MIDNIGHT.

MOISTURE PROFILES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WILL NOT BE ABLE
TO SHRUG OFF THE THICK CLOUDS...EVEN IF THE RAIN SHOULD CUT-OFF IN
ANY GIVEN LOCATION FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. THE COOL NE WINDS AND
CLOUDS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S FOR MOST OF US. TEMPS MAY NOT RISE ABOVE THE MID 50S WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95. PORTIONS OF THE THE SOUTHERN GRAND STRAND AND SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER AREA MAY EEK OUT MID 60S. NOT A SIGNIFICANT TEMP CHANGE
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST WELL INLAND...UPPER 40S. NEARER TO
THE COAST...LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE MORE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...MOISTURE FROM THE NEAR TERM STORM SYSTEM TO
LINGER INTO SUNDAY.  THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THEN IS HOW FAR INLAND
RAIN MANAGES TO SPREAD AND WHAT THE AMOUNTS END UP LOOKING LIKE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE COAST THAT
MAY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ESPECIALLY IF SSTS DO NOT INHIBIT
VERTICAL MIXING IN THE STRONG ONSHORE JETTING. BL FLOW BACKS SUNDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR LESS OF AN INLAND PUSH OF MOISTURE. SOME LOW RAIN
CHANCES MAY PERSIST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BUT THATS ABOUT IT. MONDAY
BRINGS MID LEVEL RIDGING/DRYING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW
TO ERODE FROM THE EASTERN ZONES HOWEVER ESPECIALLY IF THE INVERSION
SHOWN IN GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS DEVELOPS TO HELP TRAP IT. THIS FEATURE
DOES NOT APPEAR IN WRF MODEL SOUNDINGS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY BRINGING
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ON ACCOUNT OF LIMITED PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
FLUX. HEIGHT RISES ARE QUICK TO FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY OFFSETTING ANY
LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...WHICH THERE DOESNT SEEM TO BE MUCH OF
ANYWAY. LATE WEEK TEMPS TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS AND SURFACE HIGH ONLY VERY SLOWLY MIGRATES
EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE NOW OVER KILM AND SHIFTING TO
THE N-NE. IN THE WAKE OF THIS AREA FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVED
TEMPORARILY TO VFR. BUT GENERALLY FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR.
VFR/MVFR VSBYS WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS IN -RA DZ/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING.

BECAUSE OF SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING AN INVERSION AROUND 1K...THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD
CHANCE THAT IFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. CIGS COULD EVEN REACH MVFR BRIEFLY AT KLBT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS ANOTHER LOW PASSES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. KLBT/KFLO SHOULD HAVE THE LIGHTEST RAIN
WITH THE HEAVIEST AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...PARTICULARITY KMYR
WHICH WILL BE NEAREST THE LOW. AFTER THE LOW PASSES RAIN SHOULD
END AND CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR 08-10Z. VFR COULD DEVELOP BY 12Z BUT
DID NOT INDICATE THIS IN TAFS ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TEMPO MVFR CIGS SUNDAY...OTHERWISE VFR. VFR ON
MONDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TEMPO MVFR ON TUESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.
VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 600 AM SATURDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT INTO SUN. LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL EVER SO
SLOWLY MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WITH A TRACK MORE EAST THAN
NORTH...ESPECIALLY AS IT GAINS LATITUDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A VERY
PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. THE PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE VERY SLOWLY WITH THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE STILL SOUTH OF
THE WATERS SUN MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP STRONG NE WINDS IN PLACE. IN
FACT...A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.
THE TIGHTEST OF THE GRADIENT SHOULD BE REALIZED LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SUN. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED AND A PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED GALES IS POSSIBLE. THESE STRONG AND PERSISTENT NE WINDS
WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO 8 TO 12 FT WITH 14 FT POSSIBLE AROUND FRYING
PAN SHOALS. LOCATIONS BLOCKED BY NE FLOW...SUCH AS LONG BAY WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...VERY UNSETTLED WITH FLAGS IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. THOSE FLAGS LIKELY IN THE FORM OF GALE WARNING EARLY
IN THE PERIOD AND THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MODEL DIFFERENCES TO ERODE
CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THAT WILL LOWER TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...COULD BE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR NOT UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE WAVES REMAIN VERY STEEP AND LARGE. ABATING TREND ON MONDAY
SHOULD DROP WINDS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALTHOUGH THE LAGGING
SEAS COULD MAKE IT UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN FLAGS ARE LOWERED.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...BACKING WIND ON TUESDAY ASSOC WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW. A SHARP VEER TO OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA MAY ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SURGE
THAT COULD NECESSITATE A BRIEF ADVISORY BUT THINGS LOOK TO SETTLE
PRETTY QUICKLY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY. THE COOL AIR HAS TROUBLE
MAKING IT THIS FAR SOUTH AND THUS THERE IS NO BIG PUSH OF HIGH
PRESSURE...THE CENTER OF WHICH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL
HOWEVER DROP SOUTH AND EAST BY THURSDAY AND BE FOUND CENTERED UP AND
DOWN MUCH OF THE EAST COAST.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 19, 2:18 AM EDT, 7 hours 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
218 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053-055-200630-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-INLAND NEW HANOVER-
INLAND BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-
WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN-
218 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

RAIN MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES TO 30 TO
35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 30 TO 35 MPH
DURING SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ106-108-110-SCZ054-056-200630-
COASTAL PENDER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-COASTAL BRUNSWICK-COASTAL HORRY-
COASTAL GEORGETOWN-
218 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EDT THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NO AA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RAIN MAY FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES RESULTING IN PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST AT TIMES TO 35 TO
40 MPH. SOME BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 TO 40 MPH
DURING SUNDAY. SOME BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-200630-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
218 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RJD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Wilmington, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 19, 1:21 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	ILM		84 min
Apr 19, 2:05 AM EDT	Gale Warning	ILM		47 hr
Apr 19, 4:06 AM EDT	Special Marine Warning	ILM		84 min
Apr 19, 4:22 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILM	Brunswick, New Hanover	113 min
Apr 19, 6:02 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILM	Brunswick, New Hanover, Pender	118 min
Apr 19, 4:08 PM EDT	Rip Current Statement	ILM	New Hanover, Pender	28 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2014 Every river flood warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.