Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
725 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

UPDATED FORECAST NO DOUBT PROMPTED PRIMARILY BY ISSUANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH #458 THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL KS AS WELL AS RENO COUNTY. ALSO FINE-TUNED POPS & ASSOCIATED
WEATHER & QPF GRIDS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH ANTICIPATED SHORT-TERM
TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

TON-SUN: MESOSCALE AGAIN COMPLICATING WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTION WILL
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY THAT LINGERS FROM CONVECTION THAT
MOVED INTO AND DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT
APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION. RUC HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WEAK...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION FROM KEMP TO KCNK BETWEEN 22-23 UTC AND ADVECTING IT
WEST SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. AT PRESENT...UNSURE HOW THIS
CONVECTION WILL INTERPLAY WITH CONVECTION THAT SYNOPTIC/MESO MODELS
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...DUE TO INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. A
LARGE VORTEX WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS KANSAS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO COMPACT SHORT WAVE THAT SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE
VORTEX...AND JET STREAK MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS
KANSAS. OPERATIONAL SYNOPTIC MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF VARIANCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT STORMS...FOR TIME
BEING DECIDED TO USE SREF/SSEO AS GUIDE FOR TIMING AND COVERAGE WHICH
BOTH ACCOUNT FOR SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS. MESOSCALE FORCING WILL DICTATE
PARTICULARS OF CONVECTIONS TRACK...HOWEVER EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE
SUSTAINED THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF LARGE
SCALE VORTEX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AS BROADSCALE SUBSIDENCE
OVERSPREADS REGION SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT BULK OF THE ACTIVITY TO
DISSIPATE OR MOVE EAST OF CWA BY 00 UTC ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION...WITH GUIDANCE
LOOKING REASONABLE.

MON-TUES: ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. AS
UPPER VORTEX MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA...WEAK RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN
LINGERING OVER PLAINS RETROGRADES WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER AIRMASS
TO OVERSPREAD AREA...WITH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.

SF

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

COOLER THAN NORMAL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...BUT RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER RETURNS BY
LATE IN THE WEEK. AS EASTERN CANADA/U.S. VORTEX MOVES INTO THE
MARITIME REGION...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
CLOSER TO NORMAL. KANSAS/CWA WILL REMAIN ON CYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL MCS ACTIVITY.
GEFS/OPERATIONAL MED-RANGE MODELS HIGHLIGHTING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SF

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SOLE BUT MAJOR CONCERN IS SVR +TSRA RELATED WITH ALL OF CNTRL KS AT
GREATEST RISK WHERE SVR #458 IS IN EFFECT TIL 07Z. KRSL & KSLN WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR VSBYS (3-4SM +TSRA) FROM 05Z-11Z. HAVE APPLIED
"VCTS" TO KHUT & KICT FOR TIME BEING. UPDATES TO KRSL...KHUT...& KSLN
ARE LIKELY LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  89  68  87 /  50  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      69  88  67  87 /  50  20  20  10
NEWTON          69  87  67  86 /  50  30  20  10
ELDORADO        69  89  67  86 /  50  40  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  90  69  87 /  50  40  30  10
RUSSELL         67  85  65  85 /  90  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      67  86  66  85 /  80  20  10  10
SALINA          69  87  66  87 /  60  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       69  87  67  87 /  50  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     73  91  69  88 /  50  50  40  10
CHANUTE         71  88  68  86 /  50  50  40  10
IOLA            70  87  68  85 /  50  50  40  10
PARSONS-KPPF    72  90  69  87 /  50  50  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
740 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-110045-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
740 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GOLFBALL-SIZED HAIL AND 60 TO 70
MPH WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER ALL OF CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH...NUMBER 458...IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CDT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER TONIGHT WHERE BOTH PENNY-SIZED HAIL AND
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH MAY OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING
WHERE AND WHEN SMALL HAIL AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE BOTH
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE QUITE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
(LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
930 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

KSZ032-047-100330-
BARTON-RUSSELL-
930 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 929 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF VICTORIA TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF OTIS TO 20 MILES
  WEST OF OTIS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RUSSELL...GREAT BEND...GORHAM...GALATIA...ALBERT...OLMITZ...BUNKER
  HILL...PAWNEE ROCK...SUSANK...HOISINGTON...MILBERGER...RUSSELL
  AIRPORT AND GREAT BEND AIRPORT.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3833 9904 3848 9904 3888 9903 3889 9863
      3825 9863 3825 9865 3826 9865 3825 9878
      3826 9903 3827 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 288DEG 37KT 3879 9920 3862 9926
          3845 9939

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1021 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

KSZ033-100400-
LINCOLN-
1021 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1018 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES NORTH OF BARNARD...OR 20
  MILES NORTHEAST OF LINCOLN...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...BARNARD.

WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORM MAINTAINS
INTENSITY AND MOVES INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE
WEATHER THREATENS.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9792 3912 9792 3909 9792 3909 9794
      3910 9830 3923 9832 3923 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 291DEG 27KT 3929 9796