Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1210 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

TONIGHT: CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT ALONG THE RED
RIVER WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEADING TO A BROAD EXPANSE
OF STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS OK. SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING RAPIDLY BACK TO THE
NORTH. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES ACROSS SRN KS...FOR THE EVENING HOURS...INITIALLY OVER
SE KS...FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL REALLY
GET GOING BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN KS. WIND
PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
A CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL...AS MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1000-1500 J/KG.
NAM/WRF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE BUT GFS INSTABILITY LOOKS
REASONABLE. THINK THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54 POSSIBLY NEAR KICT...BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORMS
LIFT N-NE...WITH THE MAIN THREAT ALONG JUST TO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54
AND EAST OF THE TURNPIKE.

WED: WARM...MOISTURE RICH AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR EARLY WED. SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SE KS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD LIFT NE BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE BECOME
STATIONARY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 50 AND HIGHWAY 54
VICINITY BY WED AFTERNOON. AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE LOCATED
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE INITIALLY CAPPED.
BUT AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THINK THIS CAP WILL SLOWLY
ERODE...AS A BULGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE DRY LINE...THAT WILL BE
STRAIGHT INTO WRN OK. INTERSECTION OF THIS DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT
WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SW OF ICT. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SOME DISCREET SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-2700 J/KG. CERTAINLY LOOKS
LIKE A SEVERE CHANCE WITH LARGE HAIL BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW TORNADOES...GIVEN SRH AROUND 250 J2/KG2 AND EHI VALUES
OF 3. THIS TORNADO CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG OR SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 54...EARLY IN THE EVENING...BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
FORMS INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS...WITH THE THREAT
TRANSITIONING INTO A LARGE HAIL AND WIND THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE.

THU: HOW THU GOES WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WED
EVOLVES...AS CONVECTION ON WED NIGHT...MAY DEVELOP INTO AN
MCS...THAT MOVES RAPIDLY EAST OF THE AREA. SO POSITIONS OF THE
REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BE IN SOME QUESTION. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS SHOW THE MAIN SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE SWEEPING OUT INTO THE
PLAINS FOR THU...WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SITUATED
INITIALLY OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
SWEEPS EAST...STILL THINK A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
LOCATED ALONG OF JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DURING PRIME HEATING. SO COULD
SEE ANOTHER SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR ANOTHER OF ROUND OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER EXTREME SE KS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE SWEEPS THIS SEVERE CHANCE FURTHER EAST INTO MO FOR
THU EVE.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

THU NIGHT-SAT: THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS FOR THU NIGHT...BUT MILD AND QUIET WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN
TO THE PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK FOR FRI INTO SAT.

REST OF THE WEEKEND: FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SW FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY
RETURNING TO THE PLAINS FOR SUN. THIS SATURATION BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUN...AS THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW A BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
INCREASED LIFT WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE PLAINS FOR SUN. NOT ALOT OF INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE RETURN...BUT WIDESPREAD WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA
WILL LEAD TO AN OFF AND ON SPRING SHOWER CHANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED APR 2 2014

VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. STILL HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
MOST SITES WILL HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT/WED MORNING. 00Z NAM IS NOW SHOWING A SOUTH DISPLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT WHICH IS BETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AT THE ONSET WITH BETTER LIFT/PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING
NORTH OF AREA WED MORNING.  HOWEVER IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO
ERODE GIVEN INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE. SUSPECT A FEW STORMS WILL
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING ISSUES AND QUESTIONABLE
LOCATION WILL PRECLUDE MENTIONING AT THIS TIME. EXPECT AT LEAST
MVFR CONDITIONS TO REDEVELOP N OF FRONT NEAR END OF THE PERIOD. -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2014

INCREASING MOISTURE RICH WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS....WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WE GO INTO THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER BELOW CRITICAL VALUES OF VERY HIGH OR EXTREME AFTER
TODAY.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  63  37  57 /  40  20  10   0
HUTCHINSON      44  57  34  55 /  30  20  10   0
NEWTON          47  59  34  54 /  40  20  10   0
ELDORADO        53  64  37  56 /  50  20  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   56  68  37  58 /  50  20  10   0
RUSSELL         37  49  31  53 /  20  40  30   0
GREAT BEND      36  51  31  54 /  20  40  20   0
SALINA          42  54  33  54 /  30  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       42  55  33  54 /  30  30  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  75  40  58 /  50  50  30  10
CHANUTE         57  69  38  56 /  60  50  30  10
IOLA            57  69  38  55 /  60  50  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    60  72  39  57 /  50  50  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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