Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Wichita, KS

534 
WWUS53 KICT 110426
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1126 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

KSC073-207-110436-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-140511T0445Z/
GREENWOOD KS-WOODSON KS-
1126 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WOODSON AND
NORTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
 HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3804 9571 3789 9608 3805 9618 3816 9596
      3804 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 244DEG 20KT 3806 9592

$$

KETCHAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
659 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND. FOR THIS EVENING...A
WINDOW FOR SEVERE CONVECTION LOOMS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE DEVELOPMENTAL SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE
LATEST SPC MESO PARAMETERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF A SUPERCELL STORM
MODE WITH A SIGNAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND EVEN A TORNADO. IF
INITIATION IS EARLY ENOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THIS COULD
IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE FLINT HILLS. AN
ISOLATED STORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST ALONG THE DRY-LINE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHERWISE...THE BETTER FOCUS FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT
LATER THIS EVENING AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE STRONG
COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY-LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
INTENSE SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90F WILL
LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH
VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF STORM
INITIATION...FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO RESULT IN TRANSITION TO A LINEAR
MODE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES ON SUNDAY. THAT SAID...BESIDES
THE RISK FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...A TORNADO
RISK COULD CONTINUE WITH THE TRANSITION TO A QUASI-LINEAR
MODE...ESPECIALLY PREFERENTIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN MOST CELLS
AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE SEVERE RISK SHOULD
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOPEFULLY MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL EXPERIENCE MORE NUMEROUS COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.

MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE MEAN LONGWAVE UPPER TROF SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. LINGERING PRECIP WILL MAINLY AFFECT FAR EASTERN KANSAS
ON MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER FOR ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST WITH A
COOL AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN AS THE DEEP UPPER
LONGWAVE MIGRATES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

A COMPLICATED TAF FORECAST...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER SRN KS
FROM NEAR KIAB INTO THE FLINT HILLS. THIS DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM MOIST SECTOR...AND MOVES
E-NE AWAY FROM THE KICT TAF SITE.  WILL KEEP A VCTS IN FOR KICT AS
TSRA KEEPS REDEVELOPING WITHIN 25 MILES OF KICT.  CONVECTION OVER
THE FLINT HILLS MAY MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE KCNU AREA...SO
WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR THIS TAF SITE AS WELL.  THINK MOST OF THE THIS
CONVECTION WILL STAY NW OF KCNU.

AS SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE LOW LAYERS ACROSS SRN KS
TONIGHT...COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL
JET AROUND 2K FEET INCREASES TO 40 KTS.

THE WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEADING TO A SCT-BKN MVFR TO IFR CIG
FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAF SITES.  COULD ALSO SEE THIS LOW CLOUD DECK
MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS KSLN/KRSL...BUT WILL KEEP THIS CLOUD DECK SCT
FOR NOW.

NEXT CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS
FOR SUN AFTN. AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE
TSRA DEVELOP ALONG IT BY AROUND 21Z/SUN. WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR
KRSL/KSLN FOR THIS CHANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL ELEVATE THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INTO
THE VERY HIGH AND POSSIBLY EXTREME CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO
THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW
TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER IF CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS HOLD...THEN A RED FLAG WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT ROUTINE FORECAST UPDATE EARLY SUNDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    68  91  56  64 /  20  20  60  40
HUTCHINSON      65  91  52  60 /  20  40  70  30
NEWTON          66  89  54  62 /  30  30  70  50
ELDORADO        67  88  59  64 /  40  10  70  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  90  60  67 /  30  10  60  50
RUSSELL         61  89  46  55 /  20  50  60  30
GREAT BEND      62  91  45  56 /  20  50  60  30
SALINA          63  90  52  61 /  30  50  70  40
MCPHERSON       64  90  52  60 /  30  40  70  40
COFFEYVILLE     69  88  68  72 /  20  10  40  70
CHANUTE         67  87  67  69 /  30  20  50  70
IOLA            66  87  67  69 /  40  20  60  70
PARSONS-KPPF    68  87  68  71 /  30  10  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
352 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-112000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
352 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
THE MAIN RISKS WILL BE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING
WINDS TO 70 MPH.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. WHILE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WINDS
TO 75 MPH AND TORNADOES. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONT ON SUNDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GENERALLY FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 14.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. ACTIVATION IS MORE
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL KANSAS...AND OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1030 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

KSZ067-110400-
RENO-
1030 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN RENO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

* AT 1029 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARTRIDGE...OR 12 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HUTCHINSON...SOUTH HUTCHINSON...BUHLER...WILLOWBROOK AND HUTCHINSON
  AIRPORT.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9793 3818 9770 3803 9770 3784 9810
      3798 9823
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 235DEG 26KT 3796 9807

BILLINGS WRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1036 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             HAYSVILLE               37.57N 97.35W
05/10/2014  E0.88 INCH       SEDGWICK           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER SAW PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL FOR 5
            MINUTES ON SUMMEY STREET OFF OF 63RD AND SENECA.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1049 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     HAIL             SOUTH HUTCHINSON        38.03N 97.94W
05/10/2014  E1.00 INCH       RENO               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1056 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HAIL             HUTCHINSON              38.07N 97.91W
05/10/2014  E1.00 INCH       RENO               KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1101 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             HAMILTON                37.98N 96.16W
05/10/2014  E1.00 INCH       GREENWOOD          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

VJP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1102 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

KSZ053-069-070-110430-
BUTLER-CHASE-GREENWOOD-
1102 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN CHASE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 1059 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CASSODAY...OR 20 MILES SOUTH OF
  COTTONWOOD FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  THRALL.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3801 9624 3797 9664 3815 9668 3821 9635
      3818 9635 3818 9629
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 261DEG 24KT 3808 9654

BILLINGS WRIGHT