Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
803 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE
THIS EVENING. WITH STILL MODEST MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG AND
20-30KTS SHEAR SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. BECAUSE
OF THAT HAVE EXPANDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124 TO INCLUDE
BARTON AND ELLSWORTH COUNTIES.  WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 10PM.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS AFTERNOON A DEEP UPPER-DECK TROF WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OVER UT &
AZ WHILE AN UPPER-DECK RIDGE OF ROGUE WAVE PROPORTIONS WAS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. DOWNSTAIRS A STRONG DRY LINE CURVED FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL KS THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TO WESTERN OK. THIS DRY LINE
WILL THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES
TO SHARPEN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

TONIGHT:
WITH THE ULTRA-HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-DECK TROF SITUATED OVER UT & AZ
WILL BEGIN TO TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE NE TREK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE TROF WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. A
90-100KT UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL SURGE
NE FROM THE NM/TX BORDER TO THE PANHANDLES THEN SPREAD ACROSS
WESTERN & CENTRAL KS. THE MAXIMUM HEATING COUPLED WITH FAIRLY HIGH
OCTANE FUEL WILL CAUSE FURTHER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO CENTRAL & EASTERN KS. MIXED LAYER CAPES CONFIRM
THIS WITH 3-HOUR INCREASES FROM 400-1000 J/KG WITH THE GREATEST
INCREASES COVERING EASTERN KS. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (BOTH SPEED &
DIRECTIONAL) PRONOUNCED PLUS 6-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING FROM
~40KTS TO 50-60KTS...SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY
VERY LARGE HAIL IS CERTAIN. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED OVER CENTRAL & SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH A SEVERE DESCRIPTOR
APPLIED. LATER TONIGHT THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING 70MPH
WINDS.

ON A LESSER NOTE THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELLED.

THU & THU NIGHT:
THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST WITH HIGHEST
POTENTIAL ALONG & EAST OF I35/I-135. THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER (ESPECIALLY
THE SPEED VARIANT) WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINS.

FRI & FRI NIGHT:
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS KS DUE TO
NE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER-DECK WAVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING AS THE NEXT UPPER-DECK WAVE GREATLY
STRENGTHENS AS IT SURGES SE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO KS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT SURGES SE ACROSS KS ON SUN.

MON-WED:
SHOULD BE QUIET AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS E/SE ACROSS KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS FOR THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FIRST GROUP OF STORMS IS MOVING TOWARDS
TOPEKA THIS EVENING...BUT THERE COULD BE LATER ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...HAVE VCTS AND SOME TEMPO GROUPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUBSIDE DURING
THE DAY TIME HOURS BEFORE DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AS WELL. ASIDE FROM THE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
KRSL/KSLN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THE INCREASED RAIN POTENTIAL COUPLED WITH MODEST WIND SPEEDS WOULD
KEEP GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IN CHECK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  80  51  74 /  50  50  50  10
HUTCHINSON      67  79  49  74 /  50  30  30  10
NEWTON          67  79  50  73 /  40  40  40  10
ELDORADO        66  78  51  73 /  50  60  60  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  80  54  74 /  50  60  70  20
RUSSELL         60  73  45  76 /  50  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      60  76  46  76 /  50  10  10  10
SALINA          66  79  47  75 /  50  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       66  79  49  74 /  50  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  75  61  74 /  60  80  80  20
CHANUTE         65  75  55  73 /  60  80  80  20
IOLA            65  75  54  72 /  60  80  80  20
PARSONS-KPPF    66  75  59  73 /  60  80  80  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067>069-082-083-091-092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
903 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-090215-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
903 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MAIN THREAT IS HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALL AND 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AROUND HALF DOLLAR-SIZED AND
WINDS AROUND 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER PRIM ARLY SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER
PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD BE NEITHER
STRONG NOR SEVERE.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SATURDAY
WITH CHANCES INCREASING OVER ALL AREAS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE OVER ALL AREAS
ON MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

ES/BILLINGS WRIGHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
855 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0854 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW LYONS             38.38N 98.27W
05/07/2014  E60 MPH          RICE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMBW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
859 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 39.04N 98.15W
05/07/2014  E0.88 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   PUBLIC

            PICTURE SENT TO KSN MEDIA OF NICKEL HAIL FALLING IN THE
            TOWN OF LINCOLN.

&&

CDJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
906 PM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             ELLSWORTH               38.74N 98.23W
05/07/2014  E0.88 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDJ

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