Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS AND CHALLENGE REVOLVES AROUND THE PROSPECTS FOR
EPISODAL DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF IN THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW ALOFT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS. THE STOUT CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE SHOULD BE OVERCOME
BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING AIDED BY SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING FROM UPPER TROF. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
THE MAIN CHALLENGE REMAINS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST
SHORT TERM/MESO MODELS ARE NOW MORE SUGGESTIVE OF DEVELOPING
CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS AND INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE
GOING POP FORECAST SO ONLY SUBTLE TWEAKS WILL BE NEEDED. WHILE
THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY EXIT STAGE RIGHT BY MONDAY MORNING...THE
EFFECTIVE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY OUT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY. THE COMBINATION
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AN APPROACHING TRAILING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
MIGRATING EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTION
BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR SHOULD GIVE RISE TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON THE
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
CELLS ALONG THE FRONT. A POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATING
NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD BECOME RATHER
SULTRY ON WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AN UPPER TROF TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN TIER/SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
IN THE WEEK LOOKS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY MODEST CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT THOUGH LATER REFINEMENT IN
SPACE AND TIME IS EXPECTED.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN CONCERN IS ONGOING...LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL
KS. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...WITH CONTINUED BACK-BUILDING ON WEST FLANK DUE TO
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT. VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...CAN BE EXPECTED AT
RSL...SLN...HUT...AND CNU TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THRU CENTRAL KS EARLY MONDAY
AM...REACHING SOUTHEAST KS LATE MON PM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH
BEHIND THE FROPA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MON
PM/EVE IN SOUTHEAST KS NEAR THE FRONT.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    73  92  69  90 /  40  30  50  40
HUTCHINSON      70  90  68  90 /  90  20  40  30
NEWTON          71  90  67  89 /  80  30  40  30
ELDORADO        73  93  67  90 /  60  40  50  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  94  70  90 /  20  50  50  40
RUSSELL         65  85  64  88 /  80  10  20  20
GREAT BEND      66  87  65  89 /  80  10  30  20
SALINA          69  87  65  90 / 100  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  89  67  89 / 100  20  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     75  94  71  90 /  30  50  60  40
CHANUTE         73  93  70  89 /  70  60  60  40
IOLA            73  92  69  88 / 100  60  60  40
PARSONS-KPPF    74  93  70  89 /  40  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
927 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-020230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
927 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COMPEX OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
STORM THREATS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...PENNY TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THESE STORMS
MAY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
LESSEN...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL WANE AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL HOVER NEAR 100 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-135.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT OF STRONG STORMS TO THE AREA.

IF YOU ARE CAMPING OR BOATING THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WARNINGS AND UPDATES. PAY
ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER AND HAVE A PLAN OF WHAT YOU WILL DO IF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS. EVERYONE IS URGED TO CHECK LATER
FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL
KANSAS AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1001 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KSZ032-047-010330-
BARTON-RUSSELL-
1001 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHERN BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 959 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GALATIA...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF
  RUSSELL...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SUSANK.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3880 9900 3878 9849 3853 9848 3862 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 279DEG 39KT 3869 9890

BILLINGS WRIGHT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KSZ048-049-051-010500-
ELLSWORTH-MCPHERSON-SALINE-
1136 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1132 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KANOPOLIS STATE PARK...OR 13
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF ELLSWORTH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARQUETTE AND KANOPOLIS STATE PARK.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3875 9772 3852 9771 3852 9832 3871 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0436Z 269DEG 15KT 3864 9801

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KSZ052-053-010515-
CHASE-MARION-
1143 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN CHASE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...
  CENTRAL MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1141 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HILLSBORO...OR 5 MILES WEST OF
  MARION...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MARION...LINCOLNVILLE...FLORENCE...CEDAR POINT AND PILSEN.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9672 3821 9675 3825 9721 3847 9718
TIME...MOT...LOC 0444Z 271DEG 32KT 3834 9708

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KSZ047-010515-
BARTON-
1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1215 AM CDT

* AT 1143 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAWNEE ROCK...
  OR 10 MILES NORTH OF LARNED...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREAT BEND...PAWNEE ROCK...ELLINWOOD AND GREAT BEND AIRPORT.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3847 9904 3837 9848 3825 9848 3825 9898
      3826 9903 3827 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 279DEG 38KT 3833 9904

BILLINGS WRIGHT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1202 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

KSZ049-051-052-010530-
MARION-MCPHERSON-SALINE-
1202 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT

* AT 1159 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LINDSBORG...OR 14 MILES SOUTH
  OF SALINA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ASSARIA...ROXBURY AND BRIDGEPORT.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORM INTENSIFIES AND
BECOMES SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 9737 3862 9737 3862 9729 3861 9729
      3846 9734 3854 9777 3872 9774
TIME...MOT...LOC 0502Z 279DEG 29KT 3862 9764

BILLINGS WRIGHT